Steaming. Call me a donkey or help me figure out what I'm doing wrong.

Ok. So, the backstory.

I'm a decently consistent winner at the $2 SnG's on FT. More than half the time I'm in the money, and ROI's something like 20-30%.

I get my posterior handed to me in the $5s. Consistently. My graph looks like a ski slope. A nice steady decline, with a few small bumps just to keep it interesting.

Now. Either I'm a nit who is just less nitty than most of the $2 players, or I'm spectacularly unlucky. My inner mathematician tells me 1) I probably am a nit and 2) I have been unlucky, but there's probably some stupid in there I can't see yet.

To wit, the major moves of a representative tourney:

Limp from the SB with A-rag. 4 see the flop, which is A97. I bet the pot with top pair, get raised the same amount (I bet 160, raised to 320), which I call. I don't like it, but it feels like odds dictate a call. The turn is a K, putting 3 hearts on the board. Check check. Rivers a 6 for 2 pair. which I bet, losing to 777. 1/3 of my stack gone. I can see how this one was probably not played well. Then again, opp's only 6% to have a pair, and if he does have one, he's only 12% to hit the set on the flop, so I lost to something that should happen about 1% of the time. The other 99, I should have had him.

Next hand we're down to 5 players and I limp with QTs and am just playing the blinds and am in position. I pair the T and the blinds check with an A on the board. I bet the pot and get one caller. Turn's a blank, so I bet again and get called again. River's a Q giving me 2 pair. Villain bets 1/4 pot, which I'm not folding with 2 pair. He had a gutshot straight draw. I'm back to my starting 1500 chips.

Next hand, I'm BB with K-middle-suited and check an unraised pot with only the button left. Flop a flush draw. Min bet, villain calls. The turn fills my flush. Min bet again, and called. The river gives my villain a straight. I bet, he reraises all in and I send him home. +900 chips.

Next. medium pair in the BB. Everyone folds to the SB who raises to 3BB. I reraise to 9BB and get called. Villain now has half his stack in play. I have about 1/4th. The board brings overcards, he goes all in and I let it go, figuring he probably has me beat. -540 chips. Still above start.

Next. 2BB raise UTG with A6s with 5 players left. Only the BB calls. I pair my ace on the flop. Villain checks, I bet about 85% of the pot. Villain reraises all in, which is so little more I have to call. He has a pair of queens vs my aces with 2 cards to go. He pairs his other pocket card and I don't, losing half my stack. He had 5 outs twice, so I was about 3:1 to win, right? Grr.

I lose the other half when I get KK in the SB and raise 3BB -praying- it'll look like a steal. Villain puts me all in, which I happily call. His A2o beats my KK, putting me out. I think I'm about 2:1 on that, so I'm out of the tourament on a 3:1 followed by a 2:1 beat. Unless my math's bad, 92+% of the time I should win at least one of those.

Anything obviously stupid there? One tourney going like this doesn't bother me, but we're talking about dozens and I'm getting to the point where I feel like simple variance doesn't explain it. I'm making some mistake that the $2 tables aren't exploiting.

It *feels* like there's way too much of me getting chips in the middle with the best hand and somebody hitting their miracle card.

Suggestions on how I can analyze my play (I'm using PT3 and can roll my own code to analyze directly from the database if needed) to figure out either what I'm doing wrong, or how I can at least break even at these tables would be appreciated. I suppose I can do like above and figure out that the hands that put me out were statistically very unlikely to do so. That puts me back to calling this just variance, though.

I wonder if I'm not being aggressive enough. The $5 tables do seem more aggressive, but I'm still getting called anyway, so the net effect of raising more seems to be that I get fewer chances to not get sucked out on, and since I DO seem to get sucked out on more often than is statistically reasonable, it seems -EV.

Do I need to call more? I *know* people are betting with air or weak hands sometimes, just by the frequency, but these are not small bets and I don't really want to coin flip half or more of my stack.

Now, for irony I moneyed in a $2 while writing this and barely paying attention to it.

So, ah, help.

Thanks!

RF

Chuck_T say's if you are limping, Stop!!!

You do need to be more aggressive and you have had some unlucky beats. It never fails when you move up a level you get your ass handed to you, it happens to all of us. How many shots have you taken at the $5 level?? It could just be variance. Are you playing one table SNG's or MTSNG"s, from you're post, I assume you are playing single table? you need to be aggressive when the blinds get big enough to steal. Focus on the middle sized stacks when stealing, the little stacks might fire back on you with an all in. Take notes on your players, you'll see them again. I've noticed that people will check to you, you fire a C bet and they call, then check the turn and you fire another barrel and they call. Then check the river. Usually it's a busted straight or flush draw. I've fired a third barrel in these situations and they fold. Aggression is the key!!! Use it when you have position. I've noticed when I over think things I start beating myself. Don't be affraid to go with your gut sometimes. Also don't play marginal hands out of position. I hope this helps. I'm way tired and should be in bed. I hope I made sense here, GL

What does 'consistently' handed your arse at $5 mean? 5, 10, 50, 100 SnG's? Over how many hands, games?

Just a few hands can't begin to mean enough to assemble reliable stats and give any constructive advice. Swings and variance do play a great part. A complete HH also helps.

Can't just be a donkey if you're looking for advice. Donkeys just forge ahead undaunted.

I thought it was more, but it turns out it's a total of 18 tournaments. ITM 3 times. ROI of -68%. Not statistically significant, perhaps but I don't think I've had so consistent a downswing at the smaller tables.

Maybe it is just variance. It's just becoming frustrating going back and licking my BR wounds again and again.

RF

I am just going to insert some advice in areas that I saw might need a little advice. I hope it is contructive. I am a super conservative player so it might lack the style you are playing but it may help you.

[quote=RoyalFish;1095595]Ok. So, the backstory.

I'm a decently consistent winner at the $2 SnG's on FT. More than half the time I'm in the money, and ROI's something like 20-30%.

I get my posterior handed to me in the $5s. Consistently. My graph looks like a ski slope. A nice steady decline, with a few small bumps just to keep it interesting.

Now. Either I'm a nit who is just less nitty than most of the $2 players, or I'm spectacularly unlucky. My inner mathematician tells me 1) I probably am a nit and 2) I have been unlucky, but there's probably some stupid in there I can't see yet.
*I would say you are definately not a nit, I think that the luck gets the best of everyone at one point*

To wit, the major moves of a representative tourney:

Limp from the SB with A-rag. 4 see the flop, which is A97. I bet the pot with top pair, get raised the same amount (I bet 160, raised to 320), which I call. I don't like it, but it feels like odds dictate a call. The turn is a K, putting 3 hearts on the board. Check check. Rivers a 6 for 2 pair. which I bet, losing to 777. 1/3 of my stack gone. I can see how this one was probably not played well. Then again, opp's only 6% to have a pair, and if he does have one, he's only 12% to hit the set on the flop, so I lost to something that should happen about 1% of the time. The other 99, I should have had him.
*When in the tourney is this occurring? From a conservative stand point at an early point in the tourney, you are out of position and have kicker problems if the other player has the Ace, in my opinion, this should be a hand that you don't have too much of a problem throwing away if you get re-raised on the flop, this is a pretty clear sign that could be beat. Get away from this early in a tourney. Try to not put yourself in a position where you will have to make a tough decision for a big part of chips later on.

Next hand we're down to 5 players and I limp with QTs and am just playing the blinds and am in position. I pair the T and the blinds check with an A on the board. I bet the pot and get one caller. Turn's a blank, so I bet again and get called again. River's a Q giving me 2 pair. Villain bets 1/4 pot, which I'm not folding with 2 pair. He had a gutshot straight draw. I'm back to my starting 1500 chips.
*Nice move when you are down to this few of players, I would have to agree with some of the other advice, however. You may not want to limp in position with this hand. I think a raise would give you a much better idea of where you actually stand.

Next hand, I'm BB with K-middle-suited and check an unraised pot with only the button left. Flop a flush draw. Min bet, villain calls. The turn fills my flush. Min bet again, and called. The river gives my villain a straight. I bet, he reraises all in and I send him home. +900 chips.
*I do like this move. You have the best drawing hand but the bet is kind of misleading giving Villian the impression that he may be able to draw to a better hand instead of drawing dead.

Next. medium pair in the BB. Everyone folds to the SB who raises to 3BB. I reraise to 9BB and get called. Villain now has half his stack in play. I have about 1/4th. The board brings overcards, he goes all in and I let it go, figuring he probably has me beat. -540 chips. Still above start.
*I really don't like this move at all. First of all the SB raises 3bb, which has to tell you something right there. You probably aren't going to bet him off of this hand and if he has two overs, you are only a slight favorite and committing yourself way too early in the hand. Just call with a medium pair in this spot. It gives you an opportunity to have info. without giving the other player any and sets you up post flop by inserting doubt into your opponent. Depending the medium pair and where you are in the tournament, I might suggest that you don't make huge raises like this. You will either lose big or win big (12% like you said)

Next. 2BB raise UTG with A6s with 5 players left. Only the BB calls. I pair my ace on the flop. Villain checks, I bet about 85% of the pot. Villain reraises all in, which is so little more I have to call. He has a pair of queens vs my aces with 2 cards to go. He pairs his other pocket card and I don't, losing half my stack. He had 5 outs twice, so I was about 3:1 to win, right? Grr.
*You are so right, very frustrating. I know the end result on this hand and so my advice is bias but I would say again, the a-rag is a hand you don't want to play unless you have position, which you did, but it was a distinct posibility that you may not by the end of the rotation. the 2bb raise UTG, however, was a wrong move. Again, there are only five players left and so you may want to go to 3bb and see who calls you or if the BB would re-raise you from there. This is a hard one to get away from post flop so I would just say to you to always proceed with caution when you are playing your a-rag.

I lose the other half when I get KK in the SB and raise 3BB -praying- it'll look like a steal. Villain puts me all in, which I happily call. His A2o beats my KK, putting me out. I think I'm about 2:1 on that, so I'm out of the tourament on a 3:1 followed by a 2:1 beat. Unless my math's bad, 92+% of the time I should win at least one of those.
*unfortunately, this is just the strokes of the game. I would say take good notes and count it as a learning experience. You did have some unlucky pulls but I think that if you had played a bit more conservatively on your A-rag, you may still have life in this tournament.

*I hope you can take this constructively. It is only meant to help. I have seen myself in these sorts of situations and have been burned so I know how frustrating it can be. Maybe read a SNG strategy book about what to do when and where and you will have a bit more insight! Good Luck.

Limp from the SB with A-rag. 4 see the flop, which is A97. I bet the pot with top pair, get raised the same amount (I bet 160, raised to 320), which I call<----mistake number 1, you have a 4 kicker, you are beat

Next hand we're down to 5 players and I limp with QTs and am just playing the blinds and am in position. I pair the T and the blinds check with an A on the board. I bet the pot and get one caller. Turn's a blank, so I bet again and get called again. River's a Q giving me 2 pair. Villain bets 1/4 pot, which I'm not folding with 2 pair. He had a gutshot straight draw. I'm back to my starting 1500 chips.<------Unlucky


In most of your examples you are just getting unlucky. You may really want to consider gettingf away from those A-rag hands. In the future could you post the hand in HA, so we can see how the cards are being played out. It makes it easier to spot mistakes

Constructive criticism is most welcome. Good point on the A rag plays. I don't typically play those in the $2 tournaments, but I thought I'd try since the $5s seem crazy loose. I do have a small poker bookshelf. I think at least 3 of those are tourney books (Harrington's and Sit n Go Strategy, authored by I Forget). Harrington's especially seem not suited for the sort of semi rational play I think I'm seeing. The latter works great, and is basically what I think you are counselling--TAG early and steal when the blinds get high.

I've been loosening up a bit, which may be the problem, but I'm still often one of the tightest 3 at the table. My thought was that the typical tourney runs 100 hands or so. I'm only going to get a few premium hands at best, and in some of those I'll be out of position. These seem to play out like a 3BB raise with say AK or AQ and Mr. LAG calls me. I miss the flop 60+% of the time. I bet, they call, or less commonly, I check and they raise. If they connected, I have 6 outs. Grr. Ok, statistically they probably missed, too, but calling a series of these raises quickly becomes expensive, and I'm sure most of you would confirm is incorrect play. Bet, raise, or fold most of the time, right? I don't want to raise-check-fold, don't want to be a calling station, and don't want to c-bet every time.

Thanks for the responses. I appreciate the advice and the chance to talk through this. It's helping me think more objectively.

RF

Other than the ace-rag hands, which several posters have critiqued, I have to address the mini-raise.

Particularly from the blinds or button, I'll call a min-raise with just about anything...seriously. It either denotes a hand the raiser doesn't really like (such as ace-rag suited) or a monster like AA. Either of those is exploitable. Since AA or such is unlikely, most times my opponent has a weak hand...I'll donk bet a single scare-card from the blinds or raise any smallish bet he makes if I'm holding the button. Min-raises, imo, will only get the weaker players to fold pre-flop, which means you've sweetened the pot while eliminating your weaker competition. (Hope that makes sense.)

I would make one more statement, think about your hand for atleast 2 full seconds. Without considering position, chipcount, or prior play by your table, Is your hand worth a raise? If its not worth a raise you then need to factor in position, chip count and prior play by the other players if ALL THREE are not in your favor, you really need to consider laying down the hand

First of all, I love the people here. Everyone is giving some good thoughts. I am reading a book right now called "Sit 'n Go Strategy" by Collin Moshman. Gives you a really good perspective of what to play when and when to go with your gut. If you haven't already, then check it out. Hope it helps.

Latest atrocity.

Short stack, UTG with AA. 3BB raise, SB folds, BB reraises all in, I call (of course). He shows A rag.

The board is a straight. Pockets don't play at all, and we split the pot. I must have seriously upset some poker deity somewhere.

RF

That's the one. I credit it with my success at the $2 tables. I'm starting to buy the variance theory. After the board making a straight, my A-rag (I know...but I had like 3 or 4 blinds left and A-anything was looking like as good as it was going to get) tied with someone else's lower A-rag when the board picked up KK TT, so only the As played. Then I pick up a miracle KK and lose to 63 (all in preflop) when the board brings a 6 on the flop and a 3 on the river.

So, quit playing A-rag, quit min-raising, quit limping, and get the evil anti-horseshoe out of my posterior.

Got it.

RF

raising too much with middle pair is the only play ,i didnt like but all the rest seemed ok ,i try and avoid getting stuck into a bigger stack when he raises in first position ,maybe ill take a flop but not with middle pair ,i,d raise with it initially but only if im in good position and no previous bettors ,but 9xBB is pot commited by the sound of it .you may as well have gone all in with it if you were gonna play medium pair so strongly.but you are no nit by the sounds of things ,i play stts the same strategy and have done for years and have never had to reload ,im no expert by a long chalk ,some posts on here by the advanced guys are so deep i get lost !! but i would say tighten up hand values dont be too aggressive early on .other than that you seem like a good player who has been unlucky ,hope it goes better for you in the future pal
oh and stop playing A rag ,its just too easy to beat,unless its suited and you have a flush draw and your in cheap even then you have to get lucky

if u do well in the 2 s&g s then stick with it why not got to a $3 sg maybe not ready for the aggresiveness in the $5 ones yet buld your bankroll up and sounds like u really gotta get away from ace/ rag never good results over time with that i havent got past the $1.25 s/g s so good luck.

Well, the short answer is that single tabling $2 SnGs is good for 60 to 80 cents per hour long term win rate, which isn't anywhere close to bothering with. I'd like to win enough to actually be worth the effort. I also want to be good enough to consistently win against good players and bad.

I think the next level up in plain vanilla SnGs is $5. There's a $4, but only second place gets a standard payout. First gets a buy in to another tourney, third gets nothing.

RF

LMBO! The "evil anit-horseshoe out of my posterior". That is great! Some days are diamonds, though and you have to remember that

Royal,
Thanks for writing the message here allowing those of us without the experience or know how needed to lend good advice, to benefit from all that has been provided. I for one am finding it helpful. Thanks everyone.
And hang in there Royal!