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  Poker - SNG: Possible to make a profit? At what level?
 
  #1  
14-08-2008, 2:34 PM
greenruss
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Location: Johannesburg
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SNG: Possible to make a profit? At what level?

I have been playing for 1 year, and I only play no limit SNG online.

I accumulated 30m play chips - so I think I learnt a bit, and play a tight patient game.

Now I am playing $1 SNG, and have lost about $40 over a three week period, playing on and off.

80% of my losses are to bad beats. I can understand losing to bad beats if one plays a tight game, but the losing ratio is just unmanageable.

Is it possible to come out ahead at this level or should I move up to say $5/10 SNG, where the play should be tighter?
 

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  #2  
14-08-2008, 2:52 PM
BelgoSuisse
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Location: Paris, France
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How many games did you play to lose $40 ?

In SNGs, if you're too tight in the later stages, you will loose so much to blind steals that although you always get your money in as a favorite, you are adopting a losing strategy. You need to learn about proper push/fold approach when stacks are not more than 10 big blinds.

Post in HA section for more.

Moving up to $5/$10 will make things worse. If you can't beat $1 SNGs, you won't beat $5 either.
  #3  
14-08-2008, 3:30 PM
stevencool1
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Location: florence. alabama
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your possibly playing to tight. I just played a game where I had pocket KK on the flop was a K. I figure with a set i CANT BE BEAT. He goes all in with 7 9. he gets a str8t. I'm out in second place. that's poker.
As far as going up in dollar amount I say don't. I've played $5, 10 20. they are just as hard or harder. the bigger the pay out the more greedy the players get. but try them.

you made $2 on a 90 person tourney. which is good.. you play a lot large feild games 90-180 players. I'd say cut back to .10 -360 game and $1 - 9 player game. you got 6m in play chips and aren't getting to the money in cash games? maybe you are playing to tight. I no expert but every thing I've read and heard you have to change your play according to the players. I find the overly aggressive player in mid game gets to the money. Play more freerolls and cheap games, less money more games, and losen up.
  #4  
14-08-2008, 3:45 PM
kidpoker410
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greenruss i know this suggestion sounds horrible but try the 2$ sng's. ure spending 1$ more to earn $4.50 more. the 1$ SnGs are not only where people play horrible but they often go there to lose a few to make their scope look bad. (Sharkscope.com)

$1.25 SnG=4.50/1st (take away the buyin and rake=$3.25 profit/1st
$2.25 SnG=9.00/1st (" "=$6.75 profit/1st

The play should be a bit better better.

Also maybe re-evaluate ure playing style. Are u cashing/winning any of these?
What game are u playing? Over what period have u lost 40$? And did u lose all 40 in 1$ SnGs? Id say give the $2 Heads-up or 9-handed SnGs a shot.
  #5  
14-08-2008, 4:34 PM
pfb8888
Advanced Member
 
Plays at: pokerstars
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Posts: 100
rake is 25%

if your playing ft the rake is 25 cents so your losing extra there... try to find a site that only charges 10 % like ultimate bet or bodog(bodog has beginner sngs that payout 5 places for 10 man table) pokerstars is a little better at 20 cents-
  #6  
14-08-2008, 4:43 PM
Steveg1976
I won!!
 
Plays at: PokerStars
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All of the suggestions so far a good. I would add also if you like to read/study to pick up Colin Moshmans "Sit & Go Strategy" it will really open up your eyes to what is considered optimal S&G strategy because it is at times counter intuitive.
  #7  
14-08-2008, 4:56 PM
dj11
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In general, the play at the $1 level is only marginally better than the play at the lowest level play money games, and just marginally.

Your play money experience at higher levels reminds you that good play does exist at play money tables.

I did most of my play money at Tilt, and the 10K buy-ins equate fairly well to a $10 sng, and often equates fairly well at the $25 level. Of course, no game is exactly like any other game ever, so take that as an observation of playing prowess. The difference at first will be that if you are under funded you will be playing with scared money, and it won't be till after you are through that phase that you can understand it's effect.

Avoid the $1 games except when you are not feeling right, or want to blow off some steam. You are better off playing a 100K play money buy-in. Hell, the 10 cent MTT's at pokerstars are better games than your typical $1 game anywhere.
  #8  
14-08-2008, 5:05 PM
BelgoSuisse
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dj11
In general, the play at the $1 level is only marginally better than the play at the lowest level play money games, and just marginally.
which means anybody who is at least half serious about poker should crush them. If OP lost 40 buy-ins at this stake, he needs to learn more about SNG strategy.
  #9  
14-08-2008, 5:10 PM
Steveg1976
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BelgoSuisse
which means anybody who is at least half serious about poker should crush them. If OP lost 40 buy-ins at this stake, he needs to learn more about SNG strategy.
^^ this is exactly the reason I bought some Sit & go books and moved up to $3 sit&go's on ps, though the move to $3 was a rake consideration more than a level of play thing.
  #10  
14-08-2008, 5:21 PM
dj11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BelgoSuisse
which means anybody who is at least half serious about poker should crush them.
Prove this to me. You can't. The lowest levels are unpredictable to any degree whatsoever, except that they are unpredictable.

According to your stance here, you should be able to multi-table lowest level play money sng's (or $1)and get to 1 mil ($100 cash) from a minimum stake in very short order and by only playing that lowest level.

Besides the angst this would cause you or me, or anyone even sorta serious about poker, the variance is so huge that any long term success at that level is improbable.

Show me someone who is successful at the lowest level sng's and I'll show you someone who used to play them.
  #11  
14-08-2008, 5:32 PM
Toad
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dj11
Prove this to me. You can't. The lowest levels are unpredictable to any degree whatsoever, except that they are unpredictable.

According to your stance here, you should be able to multi-table lowest level play money sng's (or $1)and get to 1 mil ($100 cash) from a minimum stake in very short order and by only playing that lowest level.

Besides the angst this would cause you or me, or anyone even sorta serious about poker, the variance is so huge that any long term success at that level is improbable.

Show me someone who is successful at the lowest level sng's and I'll show you someone who used to play them.
I built my bankroll from $1.50 to over $200 playing mostly $1 STSNGs over several months. On average I'd be ITM about 40% of the time (that's a wild a** guess...no stats to back it up)

...but you are right, I no longer play them. Rake is too high and I seem to do better on the $3 ones.
  #12  
14-08-2008, 6:03 PM
NineLions
Advanced beginner
 
Location: Vancouver
Plays at: PS, FT
Posts: 2,710
Quote:
Originally Posted by dj11
Prove this to me. You can't. The lowest levels are unpredictable to any degree whatsoever, except that they are unpredictable.
I dunno dj, I find a big jump between the $1 and the $2 on Tilt. Less of a jump from $2 to $5. My ROI is like twice as high on the $1 that I've played than the $2. A tight style should be fine at the $1 on both Stars and Tilt, but maybe more so on Tilt because players will more quickly move up to the $2.


Mind you I don't play a lot of them. They're mostly for when I want something to pass the time.
  #13  
14-08-2008, 6:11 PM
shammalamma
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Location: upstate NY
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SnG's can have some serious hot/cold streaks, so I've found anyway. Playing mostly 3$ sng's on pokerstars the last few weeks ive gone from $55, up to 105$ and currently I'm at about 75$. My play has been consistent but the last few days my luck has been total crap. I lose every coinflip and get my AA and KK cracked consistently. Oh well.. streaks happen i guess. My advice to you would be loosen up a bit in late position and take solid notes on people's betting patterns..
  #14  
14-08-2008, 6:32 PM
katharine
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Location: Florida
Plays at: bodog
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In my bodog account I usually only play $1 sngos and their $1 tourneys.

I do have hot and cold streaks but have found not much difference in the $2 and $5 tourneys, except risk to my BR. But that my be the site as Bodog is known for fishies, and the slightly higher buyins might not exclude them.

At the highest my Br (started at $20) has been $120. My win percentage is around 30%, not counting 6th and 7th place finishes, which are minimally ITM. When I got to $100 i would play the higher limits, but found the play not much different.
  #15  
14-08-2008, 9:13 PM
BelgoSuisse
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Location: Paris, France
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dj11
Prove this to me. You can't. The lowest levels are unpredictable to any degree whatsoever, except that they are unpredictable.
Proving this would indeed be extremely boring. You'd need hundreds of games to get a statistically relevant sample.

I did launch 9 $1.25 SNGs on FTP to get a feeling. Clearly didn't play my best as I was 9 tabling these SNGs and watching TV at the same time, but they were really soft. 55% ITM, 36% ROI.

Tiny sample size, but it's somewhat similar to my numbers when I started playing on Everest (who does have much better rake for micro SNGs) for these stakes.

If you want a larger sample size, i could play more of those if we make a big fat prop bet about it...
  #16  
15-08-2008, 4:08 AM
RichKo
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Location: Columbus, Ohio
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I think your putting to much emphasis on your play money skills. When I first started playing poker which was less than a year ago, I racked up over 100K in like 2 weeks, and you know what I learned about poker...NOTHING, except how lucky you can get, and it's alot easier to chase a str8 or flush when there's no money on the line. Free play and cash play are totally different beasts. I suggest studying up as much as you can, I read strategy books as much as I can and my play has gotten alot better. I still play freerolls where there's something to gain, but I stay away from most of the play money stuff. Once you understand the game, getting pissed at some donkey while you're playing for play loot, just isn't worth your time.
  #17  
15-08-2008, 7:25 PM
c9h13no3
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Plays at: Ultimatebet/FT
Posts: 2,123
Quote:
Originally Posted by BelgoSuisse
If you want a larger sample size, i could play more of those if we make a big fat prop bet about it...
I have a large amount of money on the Frenchman. Micro SnG's are ridiculously easy to crush.
  #18  
17-08-2008, 3:00 PM
koadyawn
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Plays at: Stars
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They are beatable..I used to play the $2.20 satellite for the $11 tourny money and play sngs with them..

I would win usually around %60 of them on avg..

pretty much basic strategy...low blind you just want to play pckt 10s+,AQ+, and AT+ from later positions..

when you start to get to around 10 BBs you only want to play push or shove and NEVER LIMP..when pushing you can push any suited ace on the button and any pocket pair 55s or better and show a long term profit ..in the SB you can push a little wider like say any suited K and PP..

and with 5 bb or less just shove any 2

other than that if you have more than 10 bb in high blinds raise with those pretty hands..and thats the basic strategy that will win you some $
  #19  
17-08-2008, 3:29 PM
Fireball
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Location: Germany
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Posts: 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by greenruss
I have been playing for 1 year, and I only play no limit SNG online.

I accumulated 30m play chips - so I think I learnt a bit, and play a tight patient game.

Now I am playing $1 SNG, and have lost about $40 over a three week period, playing on and off.

80% of my losses are to bad beats. I can understand losing to bad beats if one plays a tight game, but the losing ratio is just unmanageable.

Is it possible to come out ahead at this level or should I move up to say $5/10 SNG, where the play should be tighter?
I agree with what has been said already mostly. If you can't beat the 1$ sng's you won't beat a higher level either and only lose much more money. Don't do it...

On the lower levels are usually the most fishes and if you can't beat those bad players, you won't beat the better & more experienced players on the higher levels either. Bad Beats happen to all of us and are part of the game...but it still should be possible to make some profit in the long run if you play some good poker.

Maybe it's better for you to stick with play money and freerolls for a while. If you feel self-confident again, you can try again to beat the 1$ sng's. If you manage that with a big sample size & have your bankroll build up, THEN you can think about moving up to the next level.
  #20  
18-08-2008, 1:59 PM
greenruss
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Location: Johannesburg
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Thanks for the advice guys, I think most of it was really good, and gave me a better understanding of my problem.
I moved up to the $2 SNG.
THIS IS WHAT HAPPENED...
My first 4tournies at the $2 level....
1. I am dealt AA early in the tournie - I put in 5 bets - 2 callers - flop A Q 10 spades, I go all in and lose the a royal flush!.
2. I am dealt A 3 - flop 10 3 3 - I raise 4 bets, 1 caller - turn A, I go all in - river A - my opponent has A 10 and I lose to a higher full house!!.
3. I go heads up to win the tourney - all in A 8 my opponents had A 7 - he flops a 7 on the river!!!.
4. I am on the bubble - I go all in 550 chips with JJ - big chip leader calls with 3 2!! turn is 2 and river is 2!!!!.
Maybe I need to move to a $100 SNG!!! (joke)
  #21  
18-08-2008, 2:27 PM
BelgoSuisse
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SNGs are a high variance beast. Get used to it.

fwiw, when I was playing SNGs, I had a 8% ROI at $20+2 (normal) and $22+2 (turbo) 9-player SNGs, so I was a decent winner. But I still had loosing streaks of 13 SNGs in a row.

BTW, in my experience, variance is a lot worse in turbos. Stay away from those.
  #22  
18-08-2008, 2:45 PM
RickH2005
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Dj11 is right!

I've played many a lower level SnG and have done poorly! It wasn't until I went to the $10 buy in level (and $20) that I actually WON!! Bring my ROI at Ultimatebet, at least, up to around 300% or so!
  #23  
18-08-2008, 2:51 PM
c9h13no3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RickH2005
to around 300%
Hello short run heater.
  #24  
18-08-2008, 3:00 PM
BelgoSuisse
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RickH2005
I've played many a lower level SnG and have done poorly! It wasn't until I went to the $10 buy in level (and $20) that I actually WON!! Bring my ROI at Ultimatebet, at least, up to around 300% or so!
Do you even know what ROI means ?
  #25  
18-08-2008, 5:52 PM
vpb0i
Advanced Member
 
Plays at: Pokerstar
Likes: No Limit
Posts: 100
Well, my suggest is, since you play a tight patient game, then your best bet is to keep playing single table from 9 man or 6 max, but if u want profit in your winning, then 18 man or 45 will do. To me, most people dont like 45s cause its ridiculous with the payout, but it 45s is where you learn most of your poker game, from being tight patient, to tight agressive, then moving forward to tournament and what not, just keep the same game your doing, every1 runs into bad beat, it happens, dont let a few beats decide differently on your next move, good luck
  #26  
18-08-2008, 10:17 PM
blackknite123
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haha i mean thats poker but its different, play chips to real money. the players are better and AK doesnt always dominate AQ in situations. even though youre a tight player, you might not be the best at what you do. try switching it up and betting or raising with mediocre hands, try semi-bluffing, or better yet bluffing. tight players dont always win sngs
  #27  
19-08-2008, 1:54 PM
combuboom
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the real reason to avoid the $1s on Full Tilt is that the rake is too high. 25% rake is awful, and makes it very difficult to beat for a good number long-term, even with the horrible play. you'd be better served by moving to at least $2
  #28  
19-08-2008, 2:06 PM
RickH2005
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WoW!!

To answer yer question, belago--sumpin--Yup! I DO know what ROI is---an' fer all you other grouches, Geez! Can't ANYBODY take a joke anymore?? But it' true! Initial deposit at Ultimatebet--$25--Today, startin' with no further deposts, ALMOST $200! An' dat includes a $50 pay from winnin' that $10 buy in SnG! So, wat IS my ROI????
  #29  
19-08-2008, 2:27 PM
BelgoSuisse
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Exactly my point

Quote:
Originally Posted by RickH2005
To answer yer question, belago--sumpin--Yup! I DO know what ROI is---an' fer all you other grouches, Geez! Can't ANYBODY take a joke anymore?? But it' true! Initial deposit at Ultimatebet--$25--Today, startin' with no further deposts, ALMOST $200! An' dat includes a $50 pay from winnin' that $10 buy in SnG! So, wat IS my ROI????
As I said, you probably don't have any idea how to measure ROI in SNGs as you don't provide the relevant numbers to make the computation.

Your ROI at SNGs is your total amount of winnings minus the total amount of buy-ins divide by the total amount of buyins.

If I take my old Everest bankroll, I turned $0.47 FR winnings into $61.41 playing SNGs. It does not make my ROI 13000%. What matters is that over the course of turning these $0.47 into $61.41, i paid $478.41 in buy-ins and got $539.82 in winnings, and that makes my ROI 12.84%.
  #30  
19-08-2008, 3:35 PM
iamays
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I've been experiencing some similar fluctuations playing poker online. I've had some good success with live play, but it appears to be much more difficult to find a serious game in lower-stakes online play. Everyone recommends not moving up in limit when you're losing, but if you're experienced and have hit a plateau, then maybe you should consider it.
  #31  
19-08-2008, 3:55 PM
RickH2005
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Thanx!

You see, Bel, I'm no math genius like Chris Ferguson and am the 1st to admit I don't understand alot of the incrisises (cant spel either) and the finer points of playin' poker like you do---that's exactly why I joined this forum--TO LEARN!--And I'ld NEVER ridicule a fellow member 'cuz he may have gotten sumpin' wrong or obviously didn't understand sumpin'! I would go out onna limb to either explain what was correct, or direct 'em to where they could find the answer--so thanx for the explanation!
  #32  
19-08-2008, 4:23 PM
BelgoSuisse
CardsChat Irregular
 
Location: Paris, France
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Posts: 1,396
Quote:
Originally Posted by RickH2005
And I'ld NEVER ridicule a fellow member 'cuz he may have gotten sumpin' wrong or obviously didn't understand sumpin'!
Sorry if I offended you. Didn't mean to ridicule anyone.
 


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