Set-Mine, when to do it, when not to -

So I ran into a very interesting hand last night. I'm a looser player at the table at the 200NL on pokerstars in a full ring. My two villains are tight, but not overly aggressive.

We get into a three way pot from MP against the CO and MP+1. The action is as follows. And effective stacks are ~$300.

MP+1 open raises to $7. Hero 3-bets to $17 with JJ. CO raises to $37. MP+1 calls. Now, I like set-mining in multi-way pots. However most likely we're up against two overpairs, which means we want to flop a J on a J high flop. An argument could be made for folding, which I believe to be the best play. As even if a J hits, any A, K, or Q has us potentially drawing to one out. I think with 77 for instance, it becomes more viable to set mine here, because the way the hand would have played out would have made for a cheaper flop.

I.E. MP+1 raises, we call, CO re-raises, MP+1 either re-raises and we fold, or he calls and we call. Then we just have to hope for a low flop with a 7 on it. And even on a low flop without a 7 chances of us flopping some sort of straight draw are up. However I've travelled far enough down the line, and I think folding 77 here wouldn't kill you, and neither would folding JJ as played.

So in the long shot of a J-high flop, we take a line of check/raise or bet/raise, depending on action and reads. But what about when the flop contains a J, but also a Q, K, or A? Can we say to ourselves "well, damnit." Do we still take a line of check/raise? Do we check/call? Check/fold depending on the action?

As the hand played out, we saw QJ7 two spades on the flop.
MP+1 checks, hero checks, CO bets $75, MP+1 goes all-in.

Now we're in an interesting spot. If our read on these players is right, MP+1 is probably looking at QQ, and CO wouldn't surprise me to have AA. How often can we fold here? How often can we fold here, and feel anguish as the pot containing $600 (provided CO isn't folding) of other people's money goes to a mere overpair against a check/raised combo gutshot draw?

Did we set a trap and fall into it?

Are we the giraffe in the quick sand here?

We now have a monster hand, second set. While the unofficial, unwritten rules of poker say "Always pay off set over set. Its common courtesy." And also say "Don't fold sets to draws. You're ahead dummy," I think our action is very heavily influenced by the kind of table we're at. The type of game we're playing, and our bankroll.

If we are playing comfortably in our bankroll, I think stacking off with 2nd set isn't a big deal, because it's just a buy-in, and we have plenty of those.

Ultimately a fold on this particular board would have been ideal. What hand is in MP+1's range that would 2-bet, call a 4-bet, and then check-raise this flop? AKs, QQ, but does he 5-bet KK? Does he 5-bet AA? In a multiway pot, I hope he 5-bets AA, but whether or not he 5-bets KK is irrelevant, because he's not check/raising this pot with KK. We can hope he's holding AKss, but in the long run I think we can fold here, and give him credit for the set of Qs, and let the unfoldable AA pay him off and show us our good laydown. So our post-flop action cost us $0, we fold our 2nd set, and our preflop action cost us $37. We're down $37 and we set-mined in a 3-way moderately stacked pot and made a monster of a laydown with a monster hand.

But did we make a mistake preflop?

I think yes.

Short of a J high flop, we lose (Well, not lose so to speak, but get our money in bad). Unless the one card above J on the flop just happens to miss both of our villains. But is that a risk we're willing to take?

Our read on the hand says we're up against two pocket pair that are both bigger than ours here.

If we're right to fold 77, then we're right to fold JJ. I think we're right to fold all the way up to QQ. Once we start playing KK, we're really set mining and hoping for an A to not come out, are we not? We certainly won't call a bet or a raise from the 4-bettor. And a bet or a raise from the person we read to have a PP <KK sets off alarms anyway, does it not?

Ultimately, I think with these reads on this table, this was a terrible hand to set-mine, and I not had a bankroll to support it, I would have felt like an idiot donking off all my chips with second set.

Now, set-mining is calling with a PP we don't believe to be best and hoping for a set, and is ideally done in smaller pots against overcards, cards that when you hit and they hit, you're still ahead. If our read is we're up agianst big PP, (4 bet and a call preflop) but with small PP it would be different, again either (2-bet, we call, 3-bet, MP+1 calls/raises) and we can play the hand differently.

Obv 4-bet pots aren't ideal for set-mining, as we want the bet to be a certain % of the pot, but I got caught up in it being a 3-way pot. And then overplayed by JJ-J.

Perhaps keep the set-mining to smaller pots, and give up when you're against titanic overpairs? Because the amount of flops that allow us to 'get it in good' are far and few between. And even then we're likely to be called by overpairs who are still ~8-9% to win each.

My thoughts on the subject...

- WG