Rule of 4 and 2 Clarification please

Lets say a flush will give you the best hand and you have a flush draw on the flop and your opponent goes all in. You would then multiply your outs by 4,
4 x 9= 36 you have about a 36% chance of making your flush with two cards to come.

But what if your opponent doesn't go all in. What if he bets on the flop and your sure he's going to bet again on the turn. Knowing your going to face another bet, wouldn't you then multiply your outs by 2 on the flop instead of 4? So shouldn't it be the rule of 2 and 2 if your facing another bet on the turn ???

There is a big difference here when comparing your outs to the pot odds, I want to be sure of the correct way of doing this thanks.

The 2/4 rule is just a quick way to see what your chances are to make your hand on the turn/river. Your situation is not a 2/4 situation but how to deal with your opponent. You know your % approximately, (2/4 rule), you know he will bet (but can you??? If the flush card falls and he has trips is he really betting out here??) so now figure out your fold equity. Look at stacks sizes. Look at the pot. You decision here must be much more involved then just saying "I have 36% to make my hand".

What will he do if you call and a flush card hits the turn? If he will fold to a bet then but call an all in reraise from you now, let pot odds decide and push if it is profitable, as one example.

Nevermind I found the answer here http://www.thepokerbank.com/strategy.../pot-odds/4-2/

I saw the article, but frankly got more out of the second post.

Seems like a pretty thinly veiled attempt to get an external link in a post to me...
but worse than that is that the advice given in that link is very basic, and judging by the responses there, seems to be aimed at those with limited maths skills.
If you had been reviewing recent threads in our own forum instead, you would have found much more in-depth explanations

The rules of 2 and 4 are simple equity shortcut, what you are asking involves math that is more complicated.

No, what he is asking is very simple

The answer is yes.

The question of how you should proceed is of course much more complicated, but the OP's question was 'do you multiply by 2 instead of 4 for 1 street?'

Yes its 2% per street, but actually his question was "wouldn't you then multiply your outs by 2 on the flop instead of 4?" And the answer would be no.

If you need only 1 card to make your flush and you are on the flop (i.e. 2 cards to come), then you multiply by 4. It has nothing to do with someone going all-in or not or whether he's planning to bet the turn or not, it's simply the odds of making what you expect to be the best hand given the number of cards to come at that moment. If you miss the turn, THEN you multiply by 2 because you only have 1 card to come. Assuming your flush makes the best hand, you're still ~36% on the flop no matter what happens on future streets. Then when you miss the turn and still need to improve to win, it's ~18%.

You use that information to calculate your pot odds per street to see if you have the price to call if he bets/raises.

Of course, as already mentioned, there is more to a decision than strictly your pot odds, but that's a big part of your decision in most cases.

It most certainly does matter that one of you is not all in and that you may face a further round of betting on the turn!
It would be very foolhardy to call a pot sized bet (33%) believing that you have 36% equity, and then have to call another big bet on the turn. You don't have 36% flop to turn and then 18% after the turn. You only have 36% equity for BOTH streets, otherwise you have roughly 18% for each street treated seperately

to the question "wouldn't you then multiply your outs by 2 on the flop instead of 4", the answer is still, definitely yes!

This concept is covered very sensibly in the OP's link and in some detail in these recent forum posts

Bet size fundamentals

The paradox of the "4 and 2" rule

The paradox of the "4 and 2" rule

I've included the last one as it has detailed info from the OP on the varying probability of 2% 'flop to turn' and the slightly different 2% 'turn to river'

Of course the last link is wrong it should have been
Probability question

If a mod would like to replace it with this link and delete this post I'd be grateful

I'm not sure you saying anything different than I did. Perhaps I wasn't clear, but was simply stating with 2 cards to come you have 36% to make your flush (18% per future street). Period. And with 1 card to come, you have 18%. That equity part of the calculation doesn't change based on whether he's all-in or not, which was my point. You can't know what your opponent will do on the turn. You can speculate all day long, but math doesn't abide by speculation. It is absolute. The math says 36% to make your flush with 2 cards to come, and that's what it is. Then you make decisions based on all the information available to you along with your perceptions of reads, implied/reverse implied odds, etc. If you are convinced he will make a very large bet on the turn, or shove, then obviously you factor that into your consideration rather than just take 36% at face value and go with it alone. But it doesn't change the fact that 36% is the correct equity at the point that it's calculated (on the flop with 2 to come).

We're not talking about relying on the 4&2 rule entirely to determine the entire plan for the hand, only using it as a tool to calculate pot odds for the current street. Obviously a good player takes in everything: pot odds, implied odds, reverse implied odds, reads, etc. The 4&2 rule was never designed to take all those variables into account -- it's a simple tool to give you a quick estimation of equity and pot odds on the flop and turn, period. Which you then feed into your other considerations for how to play out the hand. Which is what I think we all agreed on.

Thanks Somango for the clarification. Bear with me people Im still learning the math of poker and my math sucks lol. Ive found that the rule of 4 and 2, even though its not exact, seems to be an easy math shortcut for figuring your percentage of making your hand. If there is an easier way Im listening.

@dmorris68 All I wanted to get clarified was the 4 and 2 rule. You said obviously a good player takes everything into consideration: pot odds, implied odds, etc. The only reason I didn't mention that in the original post is because well its obvious. I understand that there are a lot of variables I just was uncertain about 1 of those variables. But you clarified it in your last post so thank you. But what did you mean when you said you use the 4 and 2 rule to figure POT ODDS? Do you mean pot odds or the odds of making your hand? I thought you compare the odds of making your hand to the pot odds.(and the variables of course)

Yes, reading that back I mangled that comment a bit too. It's been a long day...

Let's try this again:

The 4/2 rule by itself is used to determine your pot equity, or the chance to win the hand at showdown based on the presumption that if you hit your outs, you'll have the best hand. So assuming you have the nut flush draw and the board doesn't pair, you have the best hand if the flush hits, so on the flop you can say you have 36% equity in the hand (it's actually a tiny bit more, but the 4/2 rule gets us close enough). This is why I say the 4/2 rule itself is irrelevant of an all-in situation, because it's estimating your absolute equity at this moment in time based on the known cards and your outs to improve to the best hand. This equity is absolute and doesn't change until the next street.

You use this to compare to (not compute) your pot odds, which is the price you're getting to call a bet. This comparison determines your expected value (EV). If your equity is greater than your pot odds, then you have +EV and it's a mathematically correct call (taking no other variables into consideration).

Apologies for the confusion. I obviously knew this in my head but failed miserably at articulating it the first time.