Razz - Am I ahead or behind here?

Is this hand a "coin flip" ?

I'm only playing this hand because I'm down to 5bb in the tourney.

5th Street: (4.95 BB) (2 players)
Hero: 2♣ 2♠ 5♣ 7♦ 3♠
Villain: xx xx 3♥ 9♦ 4♣

6th Street:
Hero: 2♣ 2♠ 5♣ 7♦ 3♠ Q♠
Villian: xx xx 3♥ 9♦ 4♣ T♦

Not quite a coinflip. Without knowing the other dead cards and assuming that villian's down cards are both 9 or lower, then you're almost a 3:2 favorite on 5th str. But that reverses on 6th based on those cards and your are a 3:2 dog.

I don't question playing that hand when so short stacked, but how did you not get all your money in already? You don't have the luxury here to puts around. In this situation and that short I'd be jamming to get the money in ASAP while I was ahead.

Maybe post the hand in hand analysis with all of the details. Maybe something changes then or at least actions are more clear.

Oh and fwiw you started the hand as a 3:2 dog assuming at least one of his hole cards was a nine or less.

It was a limit tournament

After limping in, I did bet every street, unfortunately my cards went dead.

Poker Stars Freeroll Limit Razz Tournament - t300/t600 Limit + t60 - 8 players

Seat 1: t12561 M = 13.51
Seat 2: t3104 M = 3.34
Seat 3: t4030 M = 4.33
Seat 4: t12129 M = 13.04
Hero (): t5357 M = 5.76
Seat 6: t1976 M = 2.12
Seat 7: t8598 M = 9.25
Seat 8: t18779 M = 20.19

3rd Street: (1.6 SB)
Seat 1: xx xx 3♣____Seat 1 folds
Seat 2: xx xx Q♦____Seat 2 brings in for $90____Seat 2 folds
Seat 3: xx xx T♠____Seat 3 folds
Seat 4: xx xx A♣____Seat 4 folds
Hero: 2♣ 2♠ 5♣___Hero
Seat 6: xx xx T♣____Seat 6 folds
Seat 7: xx xx J♠____Seat 7 folds
Seat 8: xx xx 3♥____Seat 8 raises

4th Street: (3.9 SB) (2 players)
Hero: 2♣ 2♠ 5♣ 7♦___Hero bets___Hero 3-bets
Seat 8: xx xx 3♥ 9♦____Seat 8 raises____Seat 8 calls

5th Street: (4.95 BB) (2 players)
Hero: 2♣ 2♠ 5♣ 7♦ 3♠___Hero bets___Hero 3-bets___Hero calls
Seat 8: xx xx 3♥ 9♦ 4♣____Seat 8 raises____Seat 8 caps!

6th Street: (12.95 BB) (2 players)
Hero: 2♣ 2♠ 5♣ 7♦ 3♠ Q♠___Hero raises
Seat 8: xx xx 3♥ 9♦ 4♣ T♦____Seat 8 bets____Seat 8 calls

7th Street: (16.95 BB) (2 players)
Hero: 2♣ 2♠ 5♣ 7♦ 3♠ Q♠ J♣___Hero calls all in
Seat 8: xx xx 3♥ 9♦ 4♣ T♦ xx____Seat 8 bets

Ah, that's a bit different situation...in the OP you said you were down to 5BB which would have meant a chipstack of $3k at 300/600. That M value you're seeing is not Big Bets, though. That M value is calculated as:

Stack / ((#players*ante) + ((BB+SB)/2))

So 5357 / ((8*60) + ((300+600)/2)) = 5357 / (480+450) = 5357/930 = 5.76


Now, back to the hand. I know this is more discussion than your initial question, but we don't get much Razz analysis around here so I'm going to throw out some thoughts anyway. I'm definitely not a Razz expert (yet ), so my thinking analysis may be off a bit (but hey, that's why we discuss these things; so we can all improve).

Ok, the other factor I'm considering is that this is in fact a freeroll and freerolls do play differently than even the lowest possible buy-in tourney.

On 3rd street, if you were going to limp with that hand and planned on calling a raise, why not just complete to start with? Take that initiative imo and show right off that you're looking to get your money in. That could help you slow the action some as well in case you're hoping to draw cheaply.

So, on 3rd, villian (massive stack) raises with a limper in front of him (you) knowing you're short. Obv either he's trying to scare you off a mediocre hand or he's legit...you'd have to give us a read on this if you have one about how he's playing. But it's fair to assume he's fairly legit. Even if we only give him one down card 9 or lower and the other purely random, based on the board we are a 2:1 dog here. This is why I like opening here instead of limping.

Anyway, 4th is obv really good for us in the grand scheme as our better hit makes this a near coinflip now as a 55:45 dog. But that 9 wasn't exactly a horrible card for him either, so I would possibly have checked now flat call his likely bet to see 5th then reevaluate. However, since mentally it seems we have committed to playing this out at this point, I don't necessarily hate jamming here either.

5th street again is a huge hit for us and makes about a 3:2 favorite now and jamming is correct here imo even though his cap is telling us he's now made his 9 low (which shouldn't be a surprise based on 3bet 4th str).

6th street puts us back at a 56:44 dog, but his lead is giving us 14:1 to call. But really, calling isn't an option at this point. We've dumped 2/3 of our stack into this hand already. If we flat and miss 7th, then we lost 80% of our chips are are pretty much screwed at that point. So we either suck it up and fold leaving us our 1/3 starting stack to work with or we raise like you did. In all honesty, based on everything else in this hand, I'm raising here like you did.

So of course with less than one BB left, even with 7th bricking, I can't see folding now. Sadly we only win here 1 out of 25 times (4% ish) so we're not even getting the right pot odds to call blindly hoping for an utter no good bluff. But with M now down to 0.53 we're screwed either way. It's a freeroll; might as well toss those last chips in anyway.


Now, one other train of though I had going the other route real quick...limp/call 3rd. Check/call 4th. Check/call 5th. Check/fold 6th. This approach not only keeps us in the tourney, but also means we've only lost 1/4 of our stack that hand and have plenty of chips to play a bit longer looking for a better spot.


Anyway, that's my thoughts on this.

I just remembered this razz calculator :

http://www.propokertools.com/simulat...&h3=&h4= &h5=

http://www.propokertools.com/simulat...&h3=& h4=&h5=

According to that calculator, on 5th, my hand has 66% "pot equity" (Is that the same thing as a 66% chance of winning?), while on 6th it drops to 48%

Thanks for your detailed reply !

As for freerolls, at this stage in the tourney, there are actually probably more players like villain, who have half a clue on how to play, than in the early stages where clueless players, just bet every street / every hand, i.e. NLHE shoving every hand.

My main problem with Razz, is getting dizzy trying to keep up with what's happening on other player's boards versus my own hand. Sometimes it's obvious, e.g. villain has T+, paint showing on every card, and it's obvious I'm ahead. Other times I've been fooled into thinking I'm ahead only to get beat on the river.

I've read up on some of the basic things to look for on other boards, e.g., seeing my hole cards on other boards is good, as it will reduce the chances of drawing a pair, but I have a long way to go, to be able to acess 3-4 other hands at a time. Even more fun in early stages of freerolls with sometimes 5-8 players all calling to the river

Yeah, that is exactly the simulator I use. Best one out there imo.

I did up your 5th str a bit different though...you need to include all of the dead cards from the other players: http://www.propokertools.com/simulat...94&h3=&h4=&h5=

That's where I came up with your 3:2 dog. Technically you're a hair better than that but not so much to notice.

Well no, technically your pot equity shown includes ties in it's calculation. To know your exact win % for that 600k trial you'd have to divided the # of wins by 600k. But for all intents and purposes I just look at the equity % as the win % because ties in razz are very rare and the win % is often less than 1/2% different than the equity %.

Based off a read like this (e.g. he appears to have a clue on what he's doing) and because you limped in to start, I personally see nothing wrong with just folding to his raise here. We've lost 5% of our stack, have enough chips to wait a little longer for a jammable hand, and may even be able to leverage that fold (that might look weakish) later against someone that may have been watching.

I hear ya. This is just a matter of practice that we all go through (heck I still going through it on occassion). Just keep at it; it really does start to slow down as you keep going.

Well maybe we can rekindle some of that Razz disscussion that had been going on here a while back. I think we have a handful of members that would be interested in have those discussions.

Besides just seeing your cards in others' hands (which is good), you also want to look for the cards you need to make your low. The more of those you see the worse your starting hand is. Starting with [A2]3 may sound great in terms of its absolute value, but relative to a board of 64585T4 it's a not as good because of the 6, two 5s, and two 4s showing. Now if one of those 4, 5, or 6 door cards is raising, then you need to be cautious here because it's more likely he's liking what he sees. If his two down cards are both 8 or lower in this case, then we're essentially flipping on 3rd vs dominating.

Probably the toughest thing to do is to keep track of folded up cards that you've seen. Say you're on 5th street and need to hit a 2 or 3 to improve. Well if none are currently showing anywhere and you forget that three of those eight outs were previously folded, you could be making a call with the wrong odds (especially depending on the action in the hand whereas your opponent my also be holding some of your outs...but this is another discussion).

Ya, I "automatically" do that before deciding to play the hand, and of course keep checking as the hand progresses.

Well, although maybe I should be, I don't really think specifically about odds in freerolls. I do sort of use an "intuitive" method, sometimes, i.e. if I have to call a pot size bet when chasing a draw, and I'm only medium stacked, and the bet will take a substantial portion of my stack, I'll probably fold. (That's really more in NLHE / Omaha, than in Razz).

In Razz, I'll "chase" more during the lower blinds, when it's cheaper than in the later stages. Depends on the size of the pot, how close my hand is etc, my stack size.