Pot Odds or a Donk move?

Okay… so I’m playing in a little cheap tournament. It gets down to 10 people left so there are 5 players on two tables. Any way… I’m short stacked. I only have about 1000 chips and I get A 4. So, I figure now is as good time as any. I go all in. The blinds are 400/200 and I think the ante was 20. It folds around to the BB who has about 10k. There is about 1600 in the pot. He calls me and shows 9 2. The flop comes and it’s blanks but the turn is a 9. I don’t remember what the river was. So he beats me with a pair of 9’s. This group of five had been together for about an hour now and it was a pretty chatty table. Everyone getting along. Joking about people’s playing and off poker subjects.. So now I’m an observer and I jokingly say “nice suck out”. He got a little defensive and defended his play talking about pot odds and it was a “Mathematical decision” So, like I said… we have been a friendly chatty group so I ask him to explain. He said that since he was the BB and already had 400 in the pot he “had to call”. Then he starts talking about getting 3 to 1 blah blah blah. Someone else at the table who happened to be the chip leader at the time said “Yeap… it’s an easy call. I would have done the same”. So my question is… was it a sound poker play with math behind it or a donk play that worked out? I’m pretty new to the game and still learning about pot odds. I thought it was a ratio to your chances of hitting your hand compared to what you had to call to win it? How can you even figure pot odds pre-flop? Is pot odds only the ratio to what you win compared to what you have to call without regard to the cards you are playing?
Also… the chip leader said… the books say to call every time you are getting 3 to 1 no matter what two cards you have. Is that right?
Thanks in advance… I know I’ll get some good input. This is a great site.

Yes, and no.

If you are one of the small stacks at the table and holding 92, I don't think that there is any way that you can make that call regardless of previous investment into the pot. Putting your tournament on the line in that spot would be stupid and you would be best served waiting for an opportunity to control the action entering the pot.

As a big stack faced with a small call in a pot that they have already invested into, yes, i agree that it was a pretty simple call. It doesn't really hurt him in terms of overall stack or position in the event. Similarly, it doesn't make you much more of a thread than you already are, as you still have less than 10 bb remaining and would be under fold/shove strategy. Don't ask me to do the math here, as that isn't my greatest subject. But it looks like he was getting 2:1 odds (or slightly better) to make the call. You just got an unlucky turn of the cards.

When I looked at this I saw the 1000 chips, 5 players at the table, and 400/200 blinds. You're on the verge of blinding out of the tournament. The mathematical aspects of the situation are irrelevant. Pushing with an A4 is a no brainer, in my opinion. Having only one caller is an added bonus.

3 to 1 is a must call.

No problem with your shove or his call. A stack as small as yours leaves you with nothing but luck to rely on.

I'll try to break it down a bit (numbers are from poker stove)

Heads up 92o vs random hand:

Hand 0: 39.098% 36.52% 02.58% 765970787 54136733.50 { 9c2s }
Hand 1: 60.902% 58.32% 02.58% 1223328146 54136733.50 { random }

Basically 40:60


Lets look at 2 possibilities: lets assume the ante is 20 and it's 5 handed

1: BB folds 92o :

100% sure to lose 420 (BB+ante)

2: BB calls your 1000 with 92o putting you on ATC (any two cards)

60% lose 600 (call) -deducted his BB+ante because it's dead money anyway
40% win 1700 (BB+SB+ 5x ante+1000)

If you calculate it: 0.60 x (-600) + 0.4 x (1700) = 320 chips

His call is profitable against ATC.

If he knew you had A4o numbers change a bit:


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.791% 35.55% 00.24% 608687 4157.50 { 9c2s }
Hand 1: 64.209% 63.97% 00.24% 1095302 4157.50 { Ad4h }

0.642 x (-600) + 0.358 x (1700) = 223.4 chips

His call is profitable against A4o

If he puts you on a "normal" shoving range with M<10

(22+, any broadway, any Ax)

Hand 0: 29.387% 28.95% 00.44% 168536690 2546684.50 { 9c2s }
Hand 1: 70.613% 70.18% 00.44% 408553301 2546684.50 { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, A6o+, A4o-A2o, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

0.706x (-600)+ 0.294 x 1700 = 76.2 chips

His call is profitable against the selected range and you're out 3/10 times nevertheless.



And don't forget that you're out, too if he hits.

Conclusion:

-It's ok to shove A4o in your situation
-expect to get looked up with ATC from the BB here as happened.


Hope I got that one straight ?!

u played ace rag and he played worse two crap hands someones gotta come out a winner
if ya been at the table a while was he playin solid hands or just shoveing . but the 3 to 1 odds is a fairly safe odds to come out ahead .

Very well said graf, you can't really argue with the maths and it puts it pretty simply. Both played correctly.

Awesome... very awesome. Thanks for the input from all, but especially Grafkarow.

It will cost him 600 to win a 2200 pot. 600/2200=27%