poker odds/outs calc question

#1 21st August 2011, 6:58 AM

I'm generally pretty good at math, but i'm confused about this. I'm sure i'm missing something simple here but... here's my Q..
me: Ah Jh
villain: 8s 9s
Board: 8h 5h 2c
poker odds calculator says i'm 54% to win, villain is 46%... I'm not sure why i'm the fave at this point.. I know i've got 3A outs, 3J and 9 flush outs =15... theres 47 cards left... 15/47= <33%, and he's got a made pair... so why am i the fave here?... I'd really appreciate an explanation from you veterans... thx guys

#2 21st August 2011, 11:24 AM

Im not a veteran by any means but there's two more cards to come, which is why you're a favourite.

#3 22nd August 2011, 5:22 AM

He has very little outs to improve compared to you.
If a 9h comes he has 2 pair but you get the flush. He can make a runner runner straight with 6-7 but again if it's the 6h or 7h he'll make his straight but you'll get the flush and beat him.

#4 22nd August 2011, 12:37 PM

The calculator is showing you your equity meaning chanches to win the hand.
(number of outs * 4) - (number of outs - 8) = Equity
if i remember correctely.
In your case. (15*4) -(15-8) =60-7 =53 of course it is not 53 exactely because you have a open ended streight draw when a 10 comes or gutshot when a queen or a seven comes witch will add more outs. So a little over 53 %.

#5 22nd August 2011, 12:58 PM

Flush draw + two overs is a favourite over a pair. Thats a good thing to remember in tourny's and cash games a like. If you can put your opponent on a pair you can raise the flop big and put them to a hard decision with a ton of equity in the pot and not even a made hand yet.

As for your question you have 3 Jacks, 3 Aces and 9 hearts which is 15 total outs. Using the 2/4 rule you hit one of your outs (15 x 4) = ~ 60% to win. This is an estimate (and a bit off too) but it's a lot easier to do in your head at the time than complicated maths equations.

Oh yeah in OP you've just worked out the chance with one card to come too, we have two cards left to catch our outs.

Quote:

Originally Posted by acky100

Im not a veteran

Stop putting yourself down

#6 22nd August 2011, 1:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jbbb

Flush draw + two overs is a favourite over a pair. Thats a good thing to remember in tourny's and cash games a like. If you can put your opponent on a pair you can raise the flop big and put them to a hard decision with a ton of equity in the pot and not even a made hand yet.

As for your question you have 3 Jacks, 3 Aces and 9 hearts which is 15 total outs. Using the 2/4 rule you hit one of your outs (15 x 4) = ~ 60% to win. This is an estimate (and a bit off too) but it's a lot easier to do in your head at the time than complicated maths equations.

Oh yeah in OP you've just worked out the chance with one card to come too, we have two cards left to catch our outs.

Stop putting yourself down

for the situations where you have more than 8 outs you use the formula (nr.outs x 4)- (nr.outs - 8) for a more accurate result and it is not that hard. But i think there are charts with classic situations witch anyone can learn easy. There are very few players that make this in their heads especially when there are a lot of draws , pairs , hidden draws, etc on the board. Learning them is nto hard. Identifying the outs is the hard part sometimes.

#7 22nd August 2011, 5:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pittsburgh1

I'm generally pretty good at math, but i'm confused about this. I'm sure i'm missing something simple here but... here's my Q..
me: Ah Jh
villain: 8s 9s
Board: 8h 5h 2c
poker odds calculator says i'm 54% to win, villain is 46%... I'm not sure why i'm the fave at this point.. I know i've got 3A outs, 3J and 9 flush outs =15... theres 47 cards left... 15/47= <33%, and he's got a made pair... so why am i the fave here?... I'd really appreciate an explanation from you veterans... thx guys

33% is only for the river. You have a 60% chance of improving your hand and 54% chance of wining. villain only has 4outs 16% to improve and 46% that it will hold up.

#8 22nd August 2011, 5:19 PM

i think jbbb has sumed it up in a nut shell for you, stick to what he is saying and u will be fine

#9 22nd August 2011, 5:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by swingro

for the situations where you have more than 8 outs you use the formula (nr.outs x 4)- (nr.outs - 8) for a more accurate result and it is not that hard.

I respectfully disagree. TBH it's not too hard to learn anyway just know that a FD with two overcards is ~54%, it comes up a lot.

#10 19th September 2011, 8:32 AM

everyone here has a different answer

#11 19th September 2011, 11:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jbbb

I respectfully disagree. TBH it's not too hard to learn anyway just know that a FD with two overcards is ~54%, it comes up a lot.

2- 4 rule is fairly accurate up until ~9outs but beyond that it overestimates by a bit... so.. what swingro is sayin' is ez peezy & is actually correct (I hate to say, lol).. 'but'.. typically it's (x - 9) (not -8)...> 4 x 15 - ( 15 - 9) = 54

Although I do disrespectually disagree with his statement that 'the tough part is knowin' ur outs' (sure we can't always assume clean outs.. but as far as calculating outs goes this is really elementary).

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