'Outs' in Draw ?

I'm sitting here playing the casino games. Video Poker in particular which is 5 card draw, JJ or better to get paid. Single upfront bet prevents nit play.

Trying to figure 'outs' is way different when there is a minimum of JJ or better to pay. When calling a card a paying card I mean it is JQKA and will pay if paired. Also it should be noted that these outs are secure, if you hit an out, you get paid. Not like ify outs which will improve your hand to the probable (but not certain) winning hand.

For instance, we all know to keep a paying pair and seek trips, but suppose we get a hand like;

Rainbow 88AKJ. Do we muck the AKJ and seek the trip 8's or do we muck the 88 and seek the paying pair?

If we keep the 88 (mucking AKJ) seeking to improve to the money I figure we get 15 outs.

If we muck the 8's seek to pair the paying possibilities (AKJ) we get at least 18 outs, plus some very fuzzy outs on the last drawn cards if the first of the 2 drawn cards is a Q or T.

If we keep the 88 and 1 of the 3 paying cards hoping for 2 pair we get 13 outs. In video poker it really won't matter which of the paying cards we keep.

If we keep 88AK, then we are getting 10 outs.

So it looks like keeping 3 paying (AKJ) cards and mucking the 88 is the best play.

Am I right?

Another fuzzy thought is that the average winning hand in draw will be something like a pair of 8's. So the 99,TT hands would be the rake the machine operator (at a casino) would make. He could indeed provide a completely honest machine and those 2 hands would make him profit.

Keep in mind this is draw, with no additional betting because it is a video game, so the effects don't transfer directly to real draw.

Perhaps this is a silly question but, if you enjoy 5CD, why not sit down at a table and play it ? Several of the online poker rooms offer 5CD tables. I play on occasions myself, as a change from foldem.

Why tax your brain trying to beat a casino game ? In the long run, you won`t succeed because casino games are structured to favour the house.

I do on occasion play all online games, but with the video poker game I saw an opportunity to open a discussion on outs. Fixed definitions help.

OK. Could you describe the game more fully for those of us who don`t know it ? For example, in this statement:


..why 15 outs ? How is that calculated ?

hand is 88abc , if we muck abc and draw 3 cards, xyz

2 outs for each of the 3 cards drawn (total 6) to catch an 8 for trips +
3 outs (times 2 = 6) left on the 2nd and 3 drawn card to match the first card (x)
3 outs to match the y card with the z card

6+6+3 is 15.

Lots of folks here will sit and play video poker while at the bar in a casino, so there is some relevance. Most vid poker games are Jacks or better.

Another weird example is in the case of a single ace with no other money cards. You draw 4 cards, wxyz.

3 outs 4 times (each of the drawn cards is a 'time') is 12 out +
3 outs 3 times for the w card is 9 more +
3 outs twice for the x card is 6 more +
3 outs for the y card

Seems give you a whopping 30 outs to pair the board. HOWEVER, because it is jacks or better 9/13 of the drawn cards are worthless even if paired. So it works out to be

3 times 4 for the 12 solid outs, then 4/13 times the additional 18 outs for a second pair, minus 3 outs for the achieved 2nd ace (if so).

Works out to (guestimating 4/13 x 18 at 5.5) about 14.5 outs to pair the ace or better. It gets weird because a pair of 2's in the draw won't count unless a another pair exists in the hand. Which then gets furtherly weird because the 2nd pair can be a low pair. It is no wonder folks have problems dealing with outs.

This is with fixed outs, meaning you win if you hit an out. In the case of holdem or any full table, many of the hands you hit will not be the winning hand as you are against a field of players rather than against a single player/machine.

Are we drawing from a notional 52 card deck, or are the cards independent of each other like the reels in a slot machine ? Would it be possible, for example, to have five of a kind ?

To the best of my knowledge its a normal deck. There are some vedeo poker machine that do use Jokers, but not the one in our casino here.

I found what seems like a very comprehensive strategy guide here. Does this help ?