New to site looking for some knowledge

Hello All,
I am looking for some knowledge in calculating starting hand winning percentage verses other starting hands. Example JJ vs. AKo, what’s the percentage that I’m going to win, that is before the Donkey sucks out on me. You know, that cool stat they put up after the hole card cam, gives us a peek. I have a computer program that does this, but would like to expand my game to where I can do this on my own. I have tried all different kinds of number crunching and I can’t seem to figure it out. Basically I have tried variations of using Flop percentages with combinations of the odds in which you will make your hand, to try to come up with a percentage. Not sure if this is on the right track, or a nice hosel rocket from middle of the fairway. Anyway, here is the example of what I have tried. It seems to work most of the time just looking for some knowledge from the better poker players out there.


JJ vs. AKo - Computer shows JJ is 57.09% vs. AKo 42.58% with
a tie being 0.33%

JJ vs. chances of flopping an over pair is:
Flop –
1-((38*37*36)/ (50*49*48)) = ~ 57% hitting an over card on
Flop

AKo vs. Hitting only one pair is:
Flop –
3*((6*44*40)/ (50*49*48)) = ~ 26.9% only hitting one pair on
Flop

I averaged the 57% chance of hitting an over pair and the
26.9% chance of hitting either an A or K and it came up to ~ 42% for AKo

And then took the 43% chance that a Non over card flopped
along with the 74% of not hitting an A or K on flop and it is ~ 57 – 58%

Is this right or “Is it in the Lumber Yard”?
Any help would be great.

Thanks,Turtle

How precise of a percentage are you looking for? There are a lot more factors, but they won't change the percentage much and aren't really calculable on the run.

Also, do you only care about the flop? Or is this all-in calculations preflop?

Welcome!!


http://www.pokerstove.com/

My advice is just my opinion. And we know evryone has one. So I say dump the program play as many games as you can. Because odds are just that odds and nothing more. You need to feel out your opponets. Some will have the math side of game and others will have years and many and i mean many hands under thier belt. They are the ones that can read your very next move. So learn the abc's such as odds etc.. . Then most of all learn the table conditions. And never be afraid of folding. Sometimes we need to surrender to win the Battle. bigbigbucs

I think that most players will agree that while hand % calculations are fun to cite when reflecting on just how bad your last beat was, they're not so useful in a real game scenario. Reason: you never know with absolute certainty what cards your opponent has. All you can ever do is put them on a range of hands and a corresponding range of winning percentages.

More useful when playing is being able to estimate the odds for and against improving the two cards you do know with certainty: yours. You can and should find a table of these odds and learn them, because you need this information for bet sizing and making play/fold decisions. You can find a table of these odds in any basic NLHE instructional book. I'm sure there's one here at CC somewhere.

bd

I find knowing the % is very helpful. What really matters is what yours goals are, are you trying to build your bankroll or are you trying to win. These are very different things and many times will lead to very different decisions in coin toss situations. So spend some time and make sure you understand your goal in that game.

^^ google pokerstove

Welcome to CC .


I agree on the second part.

Pokerstove (or similar tools) can assign hand ranges and boards vs your hand which works well if you use a HUD.