Losing Streak: Strategy or Variance?

Hi guys,

I'm currently on a losing streak of 6 games and I can't seem to win a single hand! I've been playing poker for a few months now, but gave it a break for a couple of months (after Full tilt were shutdown) and have recently started playing on Pokerstars.

My win/loss ratio is currently 1/2. Based on 21 games, 7 of which I cashed, 14 of which I didn't cash.

My strategy is currently, to play pretty tight to begin with, but aggressively when I feel I have the best hand.

I tend to always raise to 3x the BB when I have a hand in my tight range (depending on my position and who has bet/raised before me), or 4x if there's one limper, 5x if there's 2...etc.

If there are then, no over cards or if I hit on the flop I tend to bet around 3/4's of the pot size. Or, if I'm last to act and someone seems pretty confident in their hand (and they raised pre flop), I tend to fold most of the time, unless I feel they play pretty aggressively or I feel I have a better hand.

I know this is a pretty basic explanation of my strategy, but if anyone could give me advise on whether my strategy is the problem, or it's just variance, that'd be great!

I've included a couple of example hands I've played lately:


Seat 1: Perral2 (1330 in chips)
Seat 2: bipoc (2550 in chips)
Seat 3: Niurtulotspq (1140 in chips)
Seat 4: ME (1440 in chips)
Seat 5: Sedrik555 (1770 in chips)
Seat 6: yr_kat (1430 in chips)
Seat 7: BiG BaBuChOn (1480 in chips)
Seat 8: Aniraf (1500 in chips)
Seat 9: Greatrediska (860 in chips)
BiG BaBuChOn: posts small blind 10
Aniraf: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ME [Kd Ks]
Greatrediska: folds
Perral2: calls 20
bipoc: calls 20
Niurtulotspq: folds
ME: raises 80 to 100
Sedrik555: folds
yr_kat: raises 100 to 200
BiG BaBuChOn: calls 190
Aniraf: folds
Perral2: calls 180
bipoc: calls 180
ME: raises 1240 to 1440 and is all-in
yr_kat: folds
BiG BaBuChOn: raises 40 to 1480 and is all-in
Perral2: folds
bipoc: folds
Uncalled bet (40) returned to BiG BaBuChOn
*** FLOP *** [Ts 3c 3d]
*** TURN *** [Ts 3c 3d] 6♣
*** RIVER *** [Ts 3c 3d 6c] 9♣
*** SHOW DOWN ***
BiG BaBuChOn: shows [Kc Ac] (a flush, Ace high)
ME: shows [Kd Ks] (two pair, Kings and Threes)
BiG BaBuChOn collected 3500 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 3500 | Rake 0
Board [Ts 3c 3d 6c 9c]
Seat 1: Perral2 folded before Flop
Seat 2: bipoc folded before Flop
Seat 3: Niurtulotspq folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: ME showed [Kd Ks] and lost with two pair, Kings and Threes
Seat 5: Sedrik555 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: yr_kat (button) folded before Flop
Seat 7: BiG BaBuChOn (small blind) showed [Kc Ac] and won (3500) with a flush, Ace high
Seat 8: Aniraf (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 9: Greatrediska folded before Flop (didn't bet)




Seat 2: Naklas (6427 in chips)
Seat 4: ME (2569 in chips)
Seat 5: sickman7 (1800 in chips)
Seat 6: conan1914200 (2704 in chips)
conan1914200: posts small blind 100
Naklas: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ME [Ks Kd]
ME: raises 400 to 600
sickman7: folds
conan1914200: folds
Naklas: raises 5827 to 6427 and is all-in
ME: calls 1969 and is all-in
Uncalled bet (3858) returned to Naklas
*** FLOP *** [Ah 6s 7c]
*** TURN *** [Ah 6s 7c] Q♥
*** RIVER *** [Ah 6s 7c Qh] 8♦
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Naklas: shows [7d Ac] (two pair, Aces and Sevens)
ME: shows [Ks Kd] (a pair of Kings)
Naklas collected 5238 from pot
ME finished the tournament in 4th place
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 5238 | Rake 0
Board [Ah 6s 7c Qh 8d]
Seat 2: Naklas (big blind) showed [7d Ac] and won (5238) with two pair, Aces and Sevens
Seat 4: ME showed [Ks Kd] and lost with a pair of Kings
Seat 5: sickman7 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: conan1914200 (small blind) folded before Flop


Thanks in advance guys!

Much too small a sample size to say, hopefully somebody more advanced can comment on the hand histories.

obviously, you should fold KK preflop.

Hand histories where you got all-in preflop with KK and lost to Ax (anything really) are just bad beat posts, which indicates that you have a mindset problem. Either you are looking for someone to say, "Oh man, you got soooo unlucky, just keep doing what you're doing, you're great," or something fishy like, "Just call and see if an Ace flops, you can get away from it."

Poker is not about finding ways to get luckier than the next person or even avoiding ways of being unlucky. It's not even about results or winning in the short term.

Post some hands that you played badly (I'm pretty sure you have played some hands badly) or even post entire tournaments (with tournament trimmer programs).

At a guess, without even seeing any other hands, you're probably missing out spots to shove, you are getting abused on the bubble and you're probably trying to play to many flops with 10-12 BB stacks.

6 games is nothing. Wait till you go 30-50 games without cashing.

Really don't understand why you've chosen those two hands to post, you know you're favourite when the chips go in so why post them? If you get all your chips in as favourite and lose then thats fine.

Do what baudib said and post a full tournament or hands you felt you had some very tough decision making. People will say what they think and you get a good view of it from a few different players and you can think of the reason behind what you did which also helps see what you were hoping to achieve. You can base absolutely nothing on 21 games, also you don't include BI or field size, win ratio of 1:2 is not good in heads up, 1:2 ITM ratio in 180 man tourneys is world class.

I'll guess you have some pretty big spews in your bubble play and maybe shorthanded at the final table. Those are the bits that will have least practice on as a newish player so will have the biggest leask, post some hands from that sort of position.

6 games is absolute nothing. my BR over the last few days went 175 to 135 (that was in one night) to 217 tonight. thats just poker for you. You have to accept the swings.

Going off what you said you seem to be the sort of TAG who is ridiculously easy to play against and once a half decent player has you in his sights he'll just look to outplay you every hand. If I realsie I have a TAGfish at my table I''ll basically play any two cards against him till he starts adjusting. Add some suited connecters to your range and maybe AXs type hands. if you use {T3 or something make sure your stats don't read 5/2 or anything stupid as you need to add to your range. You mostly won't get paid off by decent players if you have those kind of stats. ABC poker is the best way to go at the micros but any decent players at those limits will just crush you. I've got through a tourney once when I raised a guys blind every single time it folded to me and he 3-bet once and I insta-mucked. Next orbit I do the same again and he carries on folding when he has just seen how I react to 3 betting.

I've included the above 2 hands, to give an example of my luck lately....it seems that any hand I play that is more than likely the favourite pre flop, just doesn't stand up at showdown.

I do play AXs hands and a few of the higher suited connectors, more so if there are few/no limpers/raisers and I'm in late position. I also tend to steal blinds when getting to the later stages of the tournament, or if I'm shortstacked and have position.

I've included a hand I felt I played badly as some of you have advised:

Seat 2: -Dmitry_Bor- (3811 in chips)
Seat 4: zuaimi (4670 in chips)
Seat 7: 188rot (1250 in chips)
Seat 8: badi.kw (2625 in chips)
Seat 9: ME (1144 in chips)
188rot: posts small blind 75
badi.kw: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ME [Qd Jc]
ME: calls 150
-Dmitry_Bor-: folds
zuaimi: calls 150
188rot: folds
badi.kw: checks
*** FLOP *** [5s Td 5h]
badi.kw: checks
ME: checks
zuaimi: checks
*** TURN *** [5s Td 5h] J♠
badi.kw: bets 150
ME: raises 844 to 994 and is all-in
zuaimi: folds
badi.kw: calls 844
*** RIVER *** [5s Td 5h Js] 3♣
*** SHOW DOWN ***
badi.kw: shows [Kc Jh] (two pair, Jacks and Fives)
ME: shows [Qd Jc] (two pair, Jacks and Fives - lower kicker)
badi.kw collected 2513 from pot
ME finished the tournament in 5th place
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 2513 | Rake 0
Board [5s Td 5h Js 3c]
Seat 2: -Dmitry_Bor- folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: zuaimi (button) folded on the Turn
Seat 7: 188rot (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 8: badi.kw (big blind) showed [Kc Jh] and won (2513) with two pair, Jacks and Fives
Seat 9: ME showed [Qd Jc] and lost with two pair, Jacks and Fives

I'll go through my hand histories properly later and find some of the difficult decisions I've had to make.

Cheers.

limping UTG off 8bb with anything is terrible, sorry!

Yes you played that bad you have a M of 5 and you limp UTG with JQo right? Thats a clear fold pre.
Edit:Limping any position with a M of 5 is bad.

QJo UTG probably shoving there.

Ideally we don't let ourselves get to that point unless we just lost a big pot.

7 handed UTG really?

It looks like it's 5-handed, we're in the blinds next, and even if we double up we're in bad shape. yeah, shoving.

Never mind i can't read bad text HH obv. So yeah shove 5 handed.

Is this a play money cash game on pokerstars?

Definitely never limp QJo with 8bb, least of all from UTG. If someone raised pre were you going to fold? If so, then that's a huge leak that you need to plug immediately.

If you're not folding there, then you should be willing to leverage the not-insignificant fold equity you have by open shoving with 8bb. Me, I'm pushing there probably 70% of the time -- but I'm hyper-aggressive when I get <10bb especially when there are bubble factors at play or shorter stacks to abuse.

Once you get to a limped flop with your stack, you've lost nearly all fold equity, and pretty much hand with any showdown value is going to call your oft-dominated hand. Maximize your equity and get it in pre, or fold it.

As someone mentioned, seeing too many flops with 10-15bb (much less <10bb) or M < 10 is a common beginner leak that costs you tons of chips. If that's a common theme with your game, then you need to look at (a) why you're finding yourself so short so often, and (b) what you're doing about it when you do.

Also it was mentioned earlier but you still failed to mention buy-in. Without specific player reads, the buy-in gives us a general idea of the overall level of play. While the above advice is generally suitable to all buy-ins, when it comes to advanced strategies, what works at the $2 SnGs often will not at the $22's or $220's, and vice-versa.

Bottom line, your sample size is way too small to even be thinking like this, and your initial two KK hands are completely ordinary and nothing to be concerned about.

Basically what everyone else had said to that, horrible play and I'd bet my BR that you had absolutely zero plan of what to do if you missed the flop. UTG with that stack size calling is horrific, I'm not even shoving that I'm just going to wait for a better spot which they're will be as your not in critical danger and you can afford to wait another orbit. Please include BI, its nigh on impossible to give good feedback on hands where we have no idea of skill level.

I suppose... but he'll only have 6bb's once blinds pass. Depending upon the table... 'better spots' might be few & far between.
5-handed, utg w 7bb's.... it's close but pretty sure it's a shove
8bb = 66+,ATo+,A9s+(& suited broadways)
6bb = 22+,A2s+,KTo+,K9s+,QT,Q9s,JT,J9s

What kind of game are you playing? Cashing one time in three is a high ratio in MTTs, neither awful nor good in STTs, and rather poor in DoNs. And six games is a puny sample, far to small to draw any solid conclusions except that you might want to brush up on how statistics work / how to interpret them. .

6 game down swing is nothing. Just variance. Don't change your play just yet. Fold the JQo. With your stack size I would play pushorfold especially against a medium stack on the bubble.

Hi guys,

The downswing finally seems to have eased and I'm building my bankroll back up again.

When I look at the hand I posted before, I think it may have been a case of tilting, since every hand I played wasn't going well, so I limped to try and hit on the flop, which was obviously a bad play with only 8BBs.

I've been reading Harrington on Hold'em and I've picked up some tips and my game seems to have improved somewhat, my win/lose ratio is still around 1/2, which obviously isn't good, but I guess after the downswing I've had it's to be expected. I've cashed in 20 games and lost in 41.

My next step is to improve my heads-up play, since I seem to come 2nd far too often given the number of times I've been heads-up. So if anyones got any advise on heads-up play, that'd be much appreciated!

In answer to Arjonius' question, I've been playing the $1.50 9-handed SNGs since my bankroll started at $75 giving me 50 buy-ins.

Cheers for the advise guys.

Nash equilibrium push/fold

Cheers will read up on it.

Over rated.

If you are playing SnG's (in fact in most instances) and you cashed in 20/62 that is not a win/lose rate of 1:2 that is ITM 31% which is OK. As long as those cashes are not all 3rd and last place, you should be showing a positive ROI
You are very unlikely to be getting that "win/lose" to 1:1 or better any time soon, that's just unrealistic

I think 31% ITM in 9-handed SNGs is a bit lower than you'd like to be since just numerically, 3 paid spots is 33%.

That said, ROI is the more important stat to track since it tells you directly how profitable you are, and also factors in both where your cashes are on the payout scale and fees paid.

As for HU, you may want to track how often you get there with the chip lead. If it's well below half the time, it may indicate you'd benefit from looking for opportunities to be more aggressive / loosen up a little before the HU.

My ROI is currently negative (-15%), thanks to the downswing I had.

At first I only had a bankroll of $16 (£10 GBP), which I built up slightly, then lost it all during the downswing. From that I read up on BRM, learnt my lesson and reloaded my bankroll with $75, allowing me 50 buy-ins into $1.50 9-handed SNGs. The downswing continued for a while until I was down to around $65 and I've now built myself back up to $78, so am still at a loss in the grand scheme of things.

In terms of the places I finish in, when I cash, 2nd seems to be the most common place I take. Hence, my need to brush-up on my heads-up play.