Live Tell: Ivan Demidov Rebluffs Dennis Phillips.

I've been playing alot of live poker since Black Friday and have become quite interested in live tells. I came across this hand from the 2008 WSOP in which Ivan Demidov makes a successful rebluff w/AQs vs. Dennis Phillips AK.

This is interesting because the whole hand is a series of bluffs and rebluffs. IMO both players gave off some tells which led the other to follow up aggressively. When Demidov 4 bet's PF he makes a very subtle (wtf am I doing?) head shake and then immediately turns his head down, a classic disengagement. Players will often freeze solid when they're bluffing in fear that any movement on their might spur action from their opponent. Clearly he want's Phillips to go away. Dennis could shove here but Demidovs tells aren't so excessive that he can be sure and he opts to just call.

The flop comes 8TJ rainbow. Phillips is first to act and this is where he blows it. at 1:54 into the video he does something that IMO convinces Demidov that he can take the pot away.

I won't spoil it but can anyone else spot the Tell?

http://youtu.be/wMJPyH-BfIw

sorry for the double post. screwed up the embed.

This is a big stretch with no behavioral baseline to work with. Demidov's disengagement can also very easily be interpreted as weak is strong (as it should be with nothing else to work with).

And I may be a little defensive about Dennis since he personally helped me at the table a bunch regarding tells (yeah, I be dropping names), so I can tell you he is keenly aware of what is going on and what he is giving off (not that he can't blow it). He figures (correctly) he has Demidov at the very least overcarded - but when that TJ shows up on the flop it is over since part of Demidov's range will be JJ or TT based on his 4 bet trying to run Phillips out.
Demidov wisely repped it and was finally able to run Dennis out of the hand.

Also they both had very strong hands preflop and postured each other, but to call those bluffs is also a stretch. Phillips correctly C-Bet the flop as just about anyone with that hand would. But really too much of a text book play and Demidov responded. The true bluff here was Demidov's final bet which would have been tough had the board not cooperated. But even that could considered a semi-bluff with the outs he had available.

One things for sure - Demidov is a stud at the table. Yeah, better than Phillips on most days.

So maybe your right, but it's tough to tell without a measuring stick of normal behavior and other hands played.

I'm a big DP fan myself. He's a hell of a player but that's hand reading. I'm looking for a real physical tell. There's something he does that screams weakness. It's just a little thing that he has absolutely no control of. i'm sure Demidov noticed it too.

I stand by what I said - there is no REAL physical tell without a baseline of normalcy on him. At least according to todays leading expert, Joe Navarro.
And I can't think of a single physical tell that could not be replicated so now I'm real curious. DP was definitely giving off a weak vibe in that hand but I just didn't see anything that would have caused me to do what Demidov did (yeah, like I could even carry the guy's chip bag).
But here's a side story - Greg Raymer told me a story where he caught a tell on himself watching TV afterwards and changed from sitting with one hand on the side of his face to both hands in front of his mouth.(obviously it had something to do with his mouth). He said it was a hand with Annie Duke. I've looked around a little and have not seen it - let me know if you do.

Go to 1:54 of the video and this time listen as Dennis Phillips says "I raise". What do you hear?

Might have been a small crack in his voice, but could just be the bad audio.

I don't think this hand was so much about tells, but rather, betting patterns. Phillips wouldn't lead into Demidov on that flop with a set. And on the offchance he did just flat a 4bet preflop with a monster (KK/AA), his weak bet into that pot looks more like a "let's see where I am at" bet.

I think Demidov put him on a weakish one pair hand, QQ/AJ. And given the strength Demidov has shown so far, it's quite reasonable to think if he shoves over that bet, that Phillips would fold both those hands. Phillips would have to think Demidov has at least QQ there. Plus, just in case Demidov is wrong and he gets snapped off, he still has at least 8 outs.

FWIW I hate the way Phillips played his AK, especially being out of position.

That was it. There was a noticeable crack in his voice. There's a good chance Demidov heard it as well. this is a near certain tell that he was nervous about the bet. listened several times. There's no reason to believe it was the audio.

there was definetly a crack....Demidov noticed something you can see him perk up after the flop where as when he was making his raise he looked deflated....I think what tipped him is that phillips showed some weakness by saying "I raise" when he was first to act....that told me he felt as if he had to bet but he was scared to thus the statement "I raise"

Yup, absolutely.

Good for you Dogs working on tells but this is a stretch (as far as risking your tournament life) unless you can determine a pattern or deviation from a baseline.