Learning:1question 'bout outs

Hi there,

Merry Christmas first of all everyone !!

Now.. to poker :] I've been trying to learn to calculate both the outs and pot odds so that i can find out the EV ( i think ). But I have a brief question about the outs:

Let's say there are 3 more people left + hero . And the flop has been shown already. So my question is how many and which cards do you count to subtract from 52 ( total deck ) to find out the outs?
E.g. do I have to count the burnt card (1), the cards that other players are holding, including me ( 2 x 4 = 8) and the shown cards after flop(3)? So in total is it 52 - 1 - 8 - 3 = 40 left undealt?

I hope i have made it clear what i'm asking ...

Oh.. and the second thing, i've remembered to ask about the bets.. I am not really aware of for example how many BB I have to bet if I have a good card ( I know there are rules of some sort that advise to bet 3BB as I've heard). Could someone drop a line or a link with some pointers about bet management - so that I do not throw in an amount of money randomly.. so it would pay off..

Thank you

Hi and Merry x-mas to you to, and welcome to CC.

Question 1. Your thinking wrong here. Outs do not depend on how many people are in the hand or how many cards are dealt. Does it really matter if the cards were dealt or are still in the deck?

If your are dealt the ace/king of clubs and the flop is XcXcXh you have 9 outs(to make a flush) no matter how many people are in the hand. There are 13 cards in a suit so it's 13-2(the 2 clubs that are in your hand)-2(the 2 clubs that are on the flop)=9outs.

You subtract outs when they won't help you. Example- say you have the 9-10 of clubs and the flop is Jh8hXx. You have a straight possible with 8outs(4queens and 4-7's). If you think you opp is on a flush draw then you have to subtract the Qh and 7h from your outs as they will give your opp a better hand then you-so you only then have 6 outs to make your straight.

The second question I'm not even going to try and answer.


Best of luck on the felts.

Thanks for a really good reply, but I have figured out that one too. But I was recently watching a learning video on Full Tilt academy and one guy ( famous.. but cant remember his name) showed how to figure out the remaining favourable cards. And he included the cards that were in my opponents hands as well.. I wonder why?

From 52 remove the known cards. You got dealt 2 cards so that number is 50, you have no clue what the other players got dealt so for all practical purposes those cards are still available in the deck. Likewise with the burn card.

Flop comes, 3 more known cards so the number is now 47. Online you will not see mucked cards at this point but occasionally live a player may flip a card.

Turn card leaves 46 unknown cards.

So on the flop you figure you have 11 outs. 11 of those unknown 47 cards (approx 22%) will improve your hand.

The turn card leaves 46 unknown cards (approx 23%).

{Approximations are good enough here, unless your goal in life is to be Le Chiffre to James Bond}

So on the flop you can think that those 11 outs will have a 45% chance of improving your hand over the turn and river.

The turn may give you extra outs, or remove a bunch of outs, but in a nutshell that is how they work.

Keep in mind that outs that improve your hand may not improve it enough to be the winning hand. It occasionally is correct to think reversely. Ex; you start with AA which really only has 2 outs, and the flop comes 89T then a J on the turn, and all of a sudden anybody else's hand will worry you. This would be a really bad time to jam with the rockets........

Minderide,

Your first question is an easier one to answer because the number of outs is a purely mathematical concept. It assumes you understand what cards will make the hand you have into a better hand (one that will most likely beat your opponents). The easiest scenario is when you have 4 good cards and a potential 5th card will give you the best possible hand ("the nuts"). This Cardschat article might help you.

Your second question is not a math concept per se. Bet sizing depends on so many factors:
* Is this a No limit holdem game or a PLO game, etc?
* Are you the first person putting money into the pot (an "open raise")?
* What is your position at the table (eg., first to act, sitting on the button)?
* Are you playing cash or a single table tournament (STT) or a multi-table tournament (MTT).
* Are you betting before the flop ("preflop") or on the turn or river?
* Do you know anything about the opponent(s) you're betting into?
* What do you want your bet to accomplish (eg., do you want them to fold or do you want to make the pot bigger so that you can win more as the hand progresses)?

While you may read that many guides suggest a standard size of open-raising preflop to 3 times the Big Blind (eg., in a .25/.50 NLHE game, an opening raise would be 1.50), there is no set rule. Some suggest opening 4 times when you're playing a "micro" game (like .01/.02). Some suggest only raising 2.2-2.5 times the Big Blind when you're in a tournament and the blinds are getting large.

This is all what makes poker a game of true skill. No simple answers since it pretty much depends on the specific situation you're in.

Your head may be spinning at this point. So, what are you supposed to do? Read everything you can get your hands on, post hands that you've played in the Hand Analysis sections of this forum and let folks advise you on specific scenarios, play lots of hands within your bankroll (an entire other topic that new players should understand), and always think about why you're playing a hand the way you are playing it (so much easier to say than to do).

I think the FullTilt Academy articles/videos are good so keep looking at those. On a forum like this, the more specific your question, the more specific an answer you'll get. So give us the details of a hand you've played and ask about your bet-sizing and how others would play it.

Most of all, enjoy playing and know that in this game, you'll always be learning. Personally, that's one of the reasons I love poker!

I'd highly recommend reading PhilGordon's 'Little Green Book'. It illustrates some very simple methods for calculating odds of hitting your hand & it will also show you what size of bets would be appropriate to have villain making a mistake to call you (& vice versa). He breaks it down in a very easy to read format. You can't go wrong with grabbing that book.

"EASIEST" method for calculating odds of making your hand is by using the '2' '4' rule.
Some examples:
Let's say on the flop you have an open-ended straighdraw (for simplicity sake, we'll suggest that they're all 'clean outs'). You have 8 outs to improve to a straight.
Using the 2 4 rule. On the flop you multiply the # of outs by 4 ( 8 x 4 = 32%)... and on the turn (8 x 2 = 16%).

This will always be very accurate.. 'unless' the number of outs you have is greater than '9' (then it will be a higher amount than it really is but there's a way to compensate for this).
Let's say you have 15outs. Using the 2 4 rule.. you'd have ~60% on the flop. How we compensate is > {(15x4) - (15-9) = 54%}
[subtract '9' from the # of outs, & then subtract this from the initial equation]

I just realized something..... that ^ was my 4,000th post!!

Congratz )) and thank you very.. very much for all those detailed replies .. really means much

On your 4000th post!

Congrats on the 4k! ...and an accidentally meaty one at that!