ITM, Low M shove vs Blind Out discussion.

Premise is that we are already ITM, in a big tourney meaning lots of places get paid. We are short stacked with an M under 5, but folks on a zillion other tables are falling fast and we have already jumped a few pay grades, and if we do nothing but use up our remaining clock, we are sure to jump at least a few more pay grades. Comparably we are no threat, have little to no Fold Equity.

I for one am often willing to blind out (still hoping for true monsters), if by doing so I will make more money over time than shoving a less than desirable hand. I've seen it too many times before that by following an odds based approach at times like that, I, or another player, misses out on money because he/I didn't hit his/my junk.

So one of the questions I have is; Just what is really a decent hand to shove with, under the above circumstances, and at what level (M level) do these requirements change.

I am very familiar with HoH and his philosophy of shoving earlier than when my M gets to 5, we did, and now our M is 5...what do we do? I'm pretty sure ICM at an M of 5, sort of looses it's oomph. We are squarely in panic mode.

And yes this does relate to a particular situation (game) recently played. He did it one way, I would have done it the other way, but most importantly he was already ITM.

Lets get beyond the 'in it to win it' mentality, and discuss the maximization of return via various methods.....

I bet I know who it was,and after 3:00AM and more than 7 hours into the tournament, making an extra 10% by folding out which would then be split among 9 other players wasn't exactly a priority. Go big, or go to bed.

It's an interesting question though.
It would be interesting to plug the payouts and chip stack into an ICM calculator. With a ton of payouts that's quite a feat though.

Good question, but I am inclined to shove with a 99 pair or higher and AQ or higher. Wally

The whole concept of push/fold preflop with an M of 5 is in the hope that you can chip up and have a legit shot at still making a run of it. If you just accept that you're done and let yourself blind off, yeah you can move up a slot or two maybe in the pay structure.

However, let's say instead you take the shove approach. You're going to lose sometimes and finish a little less than if you'd thrown in the towel and tried to out-wait others. But if you win, now your M is 10 and you have a real chance at a new life. You don't have to go deep very often at all to make this method the greater EV decision.

I haven't heard of any great tournament players who suggest "Once your M is 5 stall as long as possible to move up one or two rungs on the payout ladder" anyway. I would say one caveat is if the extra payout is that super important and necessary to have immediately, then I guess you can do that. But if you're playing to maximize EV, this is not the correct strategy.

As far as decent hands to shove, I'd say that it depends on lots of variables. Other player's stack sizes at your table for example. If your M is 5 you still have quite a lot of FE vs someone with an M of 12. Not so much against someone who's M is 30+. How many players do you need to fold? If you're UTG I'd like a slightly stronger range than if I'm on the button or the sb and it's been folded to me. Has anyone entered the pot in front of me? I'm going to shove way wider if it's unopened. How loosely/tightly have players been calling similar sized shoves? What's my image right now? Have I just shoved 2 or 3 hands in a row or have I folded 2 full orbits?

I'm tired right now so I can't think of other factors, but I feel like I left some other major ones out. I'm used to talking about tourny hands in terms of bb's, and generally 10bb is push/fold pre, which ends up being....an M of about 6.7, so a bit ahead of Harrington's red zone. Especially once in the money, making +EV shoves is really how you keep making money. There are spots where I'm going to shove 100% of my hands, esp in bvb situations where the bb just isn't going to call me without an absolute monster. I can tell you this, once I have 10bb, I'm never getting off of AJ+, 88+. Other hands I'm going to take the previously mentioned aspects into account and decide whether I feel shoving is +EV or not.

The other day I was playing in a $2 rebuy and I made the money. From there I did exactly what you said. Waited for my monster range and folded to all raises even in the BB if I didn;t have them. I went move up three pay levels doing this.

Seems like the onetime payout for hitting it big is gonna far outstrip the pay level jumps easily. The jumps until you get close to the final table are not that great & if they are siginificent enough to matter, then BRM would seem to be the issue.

In short, I gotta go with Mase & Kenzie above... sitting & waiting to move up &/or waiting for a monster.... meh... you get your monster shove & it holds now you're back where you started (still short, still waiting?).. ALSO, when you're that short, your monster has to actually hold.

I've got a couple of shoving charts that were put together by poker coaches (for MTT but also have some for SNG). These guys have put a ton of time into putting these together & I've found it to be quite useful for giving one a better idea of what hands to be shoving with & where to be shoving from with them. I don't always adhere to their suggested ranges (but close) as it is depends upon my table.

I have played some MTTs in the past, sitting & waiting for monsters & was lucky enough for the monsters to show up & hold up but as mentioned by Kenzie > BRM was an issue.... I just wanted to try to keep moving up the money ladder (not the way I want to play an MTT).

Remember, the premise is we are already ITM, and are now trying to maximize return. The situation also includes the oddity that people were going out fast and every hand almost was a pay bump. The structure was such that soon it would bump even faster, and bigger. AND we still have lots of clock left! Strategically we have more clock than chips.

I'm more guilty than most of taking the shove plunge early rather than later, but there are situations where the right thing to do is NOTHING!!!

Of course I'm hoping for monsters, but if they don't come, and statistically they won't with only 4 or 5 orbits left, then the most proffitable thing we can do might very well be to use up our clock and raise our pay.

Granted after 7 hours of play we will all get blurry eyed and ready to go, but that doesn't mean we have to commit pokercide.

So then why not wait till you have the proper hand to shove, max your time bank, then jam? And then from that point on, continue to play the most +EV poker

Play to win

Im shoving almost ATC from BTN or CO with M<5. I really wanted to be in a coinflip in this situation

Personally I try not to fall to an "M" of 5 as stated in HoH where you should have a push/fold mentality but prefer to push/fold when my "M" reaches more like 7-10, because any reasonable raise you make with an "M" of that number will push you into push/fold mode with the next hand anyway, so why wait to reach 5 before you decide to push/fold?
With my above mentality on pushing with a low "M" leaves you enough chips to make other players think if they should risk doubling you up.

As for pushing ranges when your "M" is that low, I prefer to to push with strong from EP(TT+, AT+), MP(88+,A8s+), LP(66+, A6s+,ATos+) I would also like to add that I would also push 78s+.
Another thing in order for you to be comfortable with some of the pushing ranges from MP/LP is that YOU HAVE to be first in vigorish(first to put money in the pot).

Under no circumstances should you ever limp from any position when you have an "M"<5

Absolutely agree with the bolded parts.

Again tho, think we were at an M of 15, and shoved because it felt right or w/e, and a shorty crippled us and now our m is about five, and all those conditions in my op are at work.

I maintain that rather than get dicey with less than monsters, doing nothing is a very sane act. I've just seen it so many times that the tightwad who waits, judiciously using his clock, ends up creeping along often as the tourney shorty until wham, he gets his monsters. But in the meantime he is essentially blinding out while the pay ladder is paying him more and more.

I think what I'm trying to get at is that the panic approach may have a rival.....

Personally, I would always be looking to chip up. My goal is the final table, and I am not very interested in minor cashes.

I`d suggest that a key element in your success is to consider the playing styles of your opponents and target those who are nitty and reluctant to see flops. This is at least as important as waiting for a hand, imo. It doesn`t matter what your hand is if you raise a player who won`t call, and every time you win the blinds you win the chance to see a few more hands and possibly find a monster.

Rarely do I like to let myself blindout. I am shootng for the final table most times. However, there have been times where I have used that clock to try and bump up in the pay. That last orbit whenthe blinds will do me in I am looking for the opportunity to shove--more money in the pot this way.