implied odds clarification...?

coolDadJimbo

coolDadJimbo

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 3, 2014
Total posts
141
Awards
1
Chips
1
hey there....

so, i wanted to clarify that i have the implied odds calculation correct...

so, implied odds isn't the pot odds of the present bet size.... it is the size of the future pot that could be won if the current bet is called and you hit your card.... correct?

but, when considering the implied odds you also have to consider the stack size of the bettor.... like, say:

i have a flush draw on the flop.... so, i have 9 out of the remaining 47 cards that would give me the nuts.... or 9:38 odds... or a <20% chance i will get a card i need...

so, if the pot is 100 and the bet is 50 making the pot 150, my pot odds would be 50:150 or 1:3... compared to my odds of getting my card this might not be a good call... comparing the pot odds of 1:3 to card odds of 1:4...

but looking at implied odds... my present call of 50 to a 150 pot could win me a bigger pot on the river.... say 50 now could win a pot of 800 if i hit my cards... so, my implied odds for the present bet could be 50:800 or 1:16... which would make my present card odds of 1:4 ok and a good call..... (provided that they have enough chips to create a pot of 800)

is this correct?

but, also we want to consider their stack size... say, i have 4 outs or 4:43 or 1:10 card odds.... if they bet 50 into a 100 pot the pot would be 150... but to make it profitable they must have a stack size of at least 10x (card odds) the bet for me to call.... say, at least 500.... so, if they only had 200 left behind i couldn't get paid the 10x the bet to make the implied odds of 1:10 profitable.....

am i getting this right?

thanks in advance for any comments
 
Last edited:
curtinsea

curtinsea

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 28, 2010
Total posts
495
Awards
1
Chips
2
Your concern is effective stacks, which would be the smallest stack of the players involved in the hand. If you are short stacked, you're not likely to be getting the right implied odds, regardless of how large your opponents stack may be.

Also, you have to consider the likelihood your opponent will commit those chips.
 
W

Weisssound

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 4, 2013
Total posts
272
Chips
0
Implied odds is basically what you are describing but it's a large judgement call. The implied pot odds are what you feel you could reasonably get.

So let's take your flush draw scenario. Your immediate odds are 1:3, and your card odds are 1:4. You need to get at least $50 on the river to make this call BE with implied odds. That's only a quarter of the pot. So even if your opponent checks to you, you can likely get at least that. Then we look to maximize value to make it a +EV play.

But we need to factor a number of things into this: are there dirty outs? is our opponent going to pay us off? do we have other kinds of outs like 2 pair/trip hitters or even bluff outs to help widen our margin. How often will our villain show up with a better hand like a higher flush?

Basically we know what we need to get to meet our BE requirement - the question is what can we realistically get?
 
Poker Odds - Pot & Implied Odds - Odds Calculator
Top