How early can I judge my skill?

I'm a fairly new player, and am having a tough time judging my skill. I think I do fairly well, as I'm usually making a profit (even with some bad down swings).

I just started using PT3, and have about 1000 hands in. How many hands should I get under my belt before I can really analyze the stats?

hello, welcome to cardschat. i believe you should judge your skill by your BB/100. since you played only 1000 hands i assume you play 1 table at a time, so that would be your most important stat. in ptr3 you can find it in Texas Holdem - Cash Games, assuming you play cash games. if you play MTTs (multi table tournaments) or SNGs (sit and go tournament), someone else would have to help you out because i don't play those.

as for cash games, if you add more tables, you most important stat would become $/hour. lets say you play 1 table at a time you win 7BB/100, add 2 more tables and win 5BB/100 you are making a better profit.

anyway we could do better with more information, like what game you like to play, 9 handed, 6 handed, what stakes, 2nl, 5nl, 100nl , tell us what you aim for and make sure you read on proper bankroll management if you haven't already.

best of luck!

I play 2nl with 2 tables, 9 handed. Technically, it is above BRM, but I only deposited 20 bucks. I'm at $32 now. My bb/100 is 15.95, and my average $/hr is $0.45. $0.63/100

I'm at 1100 hands now. Just downloaded PT yesterday, so that's why I was wondering how long it will take to make a decent average of my play.

10k hands minimum for a decent gauge of where your at. 50k hands for a real rep of how your playing. the standard is that if your at 2BB/100 your doin ok, at 4BB/100 your doing good and at 6BB/100+ your killing it(after 50k hands of course).

you are under rolled but if you play real tight positionaly aware poker then you might be ok.

good luck.

alright, thanks for the extra info, your BB/100 is huge, it will not remain like this so make sure you keep your cool when you start losing a bit. anyway, right now you seem to have a good game, so my suggestion is add 1 more table, 2 if you feel comfortable and try to make more $/hour.

as brank said we really cant discuss your skill until you have at least 10k hands, 10k is also not enough, i will give an example, i moved up to 5nl, after 20k hands my BB/100 was 6.6, played a few thousand more hands, hit a bit of a downswing and in 2 days in BB/100 dropped to 4.32, so you might make a bad assumption after 10k hands.

best of luck.

Thanks. I'll repost to see where I'm at >10K hands.

Depends on your winrate and standard deviation

bb/100 is not an indicator for success. Looking at your winning/losing hands and how you've played them is where you start understanding your play.

Definitely wait until you have a huge sample size before declaring yourself a good/bad player. At least 5-digits worth of hands, in my opinion.

For example, right now I just broke 2,500 hands played total since I started. I mostly just single-table right now since I'm not comfortable with my play yet, so I end up playing few hands/day compared to most, I guess. Across those 2,500 hands Poker Tracker says I'm running at about 48 BB/100 in 2NL.

If I were to just look at that number without context, I'd be saying, "Woo, I'm the best player ever!!" but with only 2,500 hands as my sample size, it doesn't mean much of anything.

It means that even with a standard deviation of 50BB/100, you're a longterm winning player at 2nl.

10K hands is basically just a starting point to look at.
50K hands you get a basic understanding of how your play is going.
The more you play the more info you are gathering.

Nah, just means I got lucky. I'm too intolerant of variance to be a long-term winner at anything.

I deposited $20, got up to ~$70 over a week or so. Then I lost about $10 on some pretty sick beats last night, got pissed, decided I hated poker again and withdrew the remaining cash.

I think it all just depends on the person. I thought 2 years ago when i hit a straight flush in my first live cash game that i was good because i left with over 800 and only started with 50 dollars. I have learned alot within that time that has made me a better poker play. But even at that I think it will still take me some time to make it to where i want.

I would say thought that along with Internet poker, live games are great aswell to improve your game. Find a Charity league if your county has one and try it out.

Skapluns comment should not be overlooked. A winrate only lets you know how many bbs you've won, not how you won them. When I suck out and win 80bb my stats for that session are gonna look awesome. I f I dont mark that hand and review it later though Im setting myself to lose in the long run.
Example

SB: $21.60
Hero (BB): $9.80
UTG: $3.45
MP: $19.45
CO: $10.00
BTN: $15.35

SB posts SB $0.05, Hero posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has A K

UTG raises to $0.30, MP raises to $1.00, fold, fold, fold
I shoved my AK and both villains folded

I won 12bb here, though Im pretty sure this is a neutral EV play. So my session looks good but after 100k hands these moves will have no impact on my winrate (if its really ev neutral) even though I won the hand.

So.... As a beginner, I am less concerned about making Xbb/100 (its not like 10nl is gonna make or break me) than I am about making right, i.e +EV, decisions.

LOL! You were smart! I deposited 30$, got them up to 160$ in one week (on the way grew a monster ego ) and lost them all in 2 nights .
I learned not to overestimate myself ever again and play at the limits I'm supposed to play at...Not a bad lesson for the cost of 30$ huh ? but guess I coulda withdrawn them like you...

Well, being the indecisive person I am, I put the money back in and started playing again, Elie.

Made almost all of the lost money from the downturn in about 90 minutes last night, so I feel better now. (Yes, $10 is a big downturn when you're grinding micros, ugh!)

I looking at my own db I have 30K hands at 50nl where I ran at -3.03BB/100.

Immediately it was followed by 30K hands at 50nl where I ran at 7.3BB/100.

So I don't know what the correct sample size answer is, but it's more than you think.

In graph form:

lolsamplesize.jpg (http://www.cardschat.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=28845&d=1275145635)

QFT

People just don't realize how long term this can be.

It's long.(thats what she said)

Given that the edge in NLHM that most people will have is pretty small and variance can be a monster, the required sample size to get a feel for anything is probably absolutely huge. At least in the 6-digits.

And that's where bankroll management comes into play. Just surviving to 6-digits+ worth of hands at all (Without constant reloading) is probably a feat in and of itself, because if you're not being mindful of your bankroll, you'll be busted way before that.

You say you are playing NL, and then quote a limit stat (bb/100).

bb's (big bets) do not really translate to no limit the way many mistakenly think they might.

bb's are the last bets in a limit game, so for example, in a ,25/.50 game, the bb will be .50.

Since NL, involves last bets normally outside the min bet range, any number you get will be a misleading

It is sort of like judging an apple by the color of its orange peel.

bb/100 or BB/100 is a measure of winrate no matter if you're playing fl, pl or nl.

It really doesn't matter how big any bet on any street is or isn't. Winrate is winrate is winrate.

Now if you want to argue that using BB/100 for nl is dumb fine, but bb/100 certainly makes sense.

check pokertablerations.com ( I think that how it spelled, I don't want to spell check it)

Pokertableratings.

It's not entirely accurate from my experience, the number it has for my hands/profits/BB100 are waaay off from what I have in PokerTracker. =O