HEM - NON showdown winnings

How do I improve my non-showdown winnings? My graph for nonshowdown winnings just fall way below equilibrium!

Graph please.

Non-showdown winnings is basically the money you win when people fold before you both turn your cards up after the river bets. So in order to raise it you would need to take down more pots on any street where the villain(s) fold to your bet. This could mean you need to bluff more, cbet more, make more double (or triple) barrels.

That being said, I don't think it's that bad to have a non-showdown winnings graph that's negative. Most people have one that's just below 0 or just above but usually a pretty constant line right ? I think as long as your showdown winnings graph is big enough in the profit you're fine. But I could be wrong and other, more experienced players will have to confirm.

The problem with non-showdown winnings is this:

You need to win more (or bigger) pots without showdown than your opponents. Obvious, right? But this translates to one or more of the following situations:

1. You bluff a lot and your opponents fold their better hands to you too often.
2. You have a lot of good hands, but they don't get to showdown because your opponents fold their worse hands.

Now look at the extreme case of #1: Playing like a maniac. I guarantee you that a maniac will be hugely profitable in non-showdown winnings. His problem is that when his bluffs fail, he loses a buy-in - but that score doesn't count in his non-showdown winnings.

And extreme case of #2: The only time you get action with your big hands is when your opponent has a bigger hand. Again, your non-showdown winnings are awesome, but your win-rate sucks.

No, non-showdown winnings should be somewhere around neutral. You want to bluff often enough to get action with your big hands, but not so much that you start getting called and lose money, and you want to get to showdown more with your strong hands, so you try to get to showdown in those cases.

So is it bad that my non-showdown winnings is so high ?
This is almost exclusively 5nl with the last 200 hands being a 10nl shot.

Around had 5700 I've been trying to play more nit/TAG. That meant drop certain marginal hands more preflop in early and middle position and try to get to showdown more as a winner. The thing is my NSD winnings are increasing too. What does this mean ? Am I back to bluffing more, am I getting respect when I shouldn't and at the same time no respect when I do have the winning hands. Because my SD winnings have spiked up too.

Or am I just on an upswing ?

Attached Images

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OK. I've been studying the meaning of these graphs for a little while now. I don't claim to be an expert yet, but let me tell you what I know so far.

The #1 to remember is the only graph line that really matters is the green one (Overall $$ Won). If that is high, then you are making a profit at what ever you are doing with your game. IMO, if it ain't broke, don't fix it.

But if you want an opinion on your graph, Enty, I'll tell you what I personally see.

Your NSDW line is high because you are getting a lot of people to fold. You either raise a lot (bordering on maniac) or you play at some very, very tight tables.

Your SDW line is low because you are probably showing down mediocre hands. Hands like top pair-bad kicker, 2nd pair, underpairs, pairs or 2-pair when someone has a flush or straight, or even Ace-high when you think the other guy is bluffing. Getting better at this part requires improving your hand reading skills. I know it's tough at the stakes you are playing, but it is something you have to work on. Sure, you've described some pretty bad beats that will contribute to lowering this line. That's the down spikes in the blue line.

Just my opinion: Since you make more money inducing folds instead of showing down well (red line over blue line), you could be leaving yourself vulnerable to decent players who will catch on to your style. Learn to mix it up before you move up in stakes and work on reading your opponents better.

But the fact that both of your lines ramp up at the end is great!!! So you may not have to change much of what you are doing. Maybe just a little.

OK. Thanks for the comments. Here's my take.

Tbh I don't think I bluff that much and I certainly wouldn't describe myself as being a maniac or even LAG...
I am no expert at evaluating my stats but they seem to me to be pretty TAGish. When I am playing I rarely if ever run big bluffs.

Ok maybe some small ones when I sense my opponent is weak, and usually they are. Cause people at 5nl aren't all that great at hiding their weakness in a hand imo.
So that probably explains the rather high red graph, at least partly ?

What you say about the blue line (SDW) is probably true.. For the first 6k hands. But I think I am changing this.
The situations you describe don't happen that often to me (any more).
Top pair bad kicker, 2nd pair, underpairs etc. Probably some 2 pair, set hands when someone hit
their straight or flush but isn't that more sort of a beat than bad playing ?

So I still don't really know if the end spike, both in green and blue lines, is due to me playing better or just an upswing, I guess time will tell..

Stats:

Attached Images

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Like you said, it doesn't seem broke, so probably not a lot of use in trying to fix it
(Thank God)

Yeah, but you gotta know what you are doing right to know what NOT to change.

Also, getting people to fold doesn't always mean "bluffing". A typical TAG's redline will run just below zero. But yours is running above zero. Plus at 5NL, you have an above average AF of 3.39. That means you are aggressive post-flop and that's good since it seems you get people to fold often. You probably use your position well and bet often when checked to and that's great. But hopefully that is just one part of your entire arsenal. Just be prepared to change it up if someone starts check-raising you post-flop on a regular basis.

Alright, thanks.

Yeah not a lot of check raising going on, and typically I will fold to it, especially on the flop, cause that would mean I'm in serious trouble.

Also 3bets preflop are a big sign of strenght so best not to play back at those too often .

O.K. Now I'm nervous...

My non-showdown line goes down at a 45 degree angle. Way down...

My showdown line goes up at the same angle.

My overall stays between my showdown line and zero.

So, my non-showdown winnings are no where around neutral. They constitute a huge loss.

Does this mean I'm not bluffing often enough? Giving up to easy? What does it mean?

HELP???!!!

Typically one of the following:

1. Small sample size.
2. You're putting in a lot of money without then seeing a showdown. Potentially a huge leak. Like calling a full pot bet on the turn with a flushdraw and then check/folding when missing.
3. You never bluff and whenever you have the best hand you end up slowplaying yourself into a cheap showdown.

It's not the sample size, unless 45k hands is too small.

Two and three sound a lot like me. I'm check folding a lot of rivers while cursing that my draws "just don't get there".

I seldom slow play anything so I don't think that's a problem but I never bluff. I'm under the impression that bluffs at $25NL will get looked up to often to be profitable. So, my bluffing is limited to cbets and semi-bluffs. If I get called then I go check-fold.

I'm feeling like a big weak-tight leaky fish right now. Where's that HOH book...

Theres a graph of my most recent sessions

lol wow, your graph looks EXACTLY like a Limit graph. Which is really weird. You're probably folding too much after the flop. I assume you probably have a relatively high W$@SD and low WTSD as well. I mean it's obviously not horrible, since you're winning overall. But you could easily decrease your NSD losses, without sacrificing anything else and greatly improve your WR.

TAGgy/nitty players at FR will consistently lose NSD and there really isn't much you can do about it.

Narrow the gap btwn pfr and vpip, make sure you are cbetting a good amount, play your draws aggressively, don't be afraid to double barrel guys who call flop light, etc etc will all help improve your w$wsf and increase your NSD winnings. But in general increasing NSD comes at a hit to your SD winnings, so unless you are actually leaking in NSD postflop i wouldn't worry that much.

My W$SD is usually around 55% and my WTSD is 28%..I guess I should be a little more aggro post-flop as post-flop is my biggest leak!

I Cbet 65-70% of my hands..It may be I rarely double barrel if I miss since I feel these guys arent folding..but will start to add it in my game..

When in position I dont bet my draws but do you think its a good idea to 3bet my draws in position? Out of position I would raise if I feel I have FE and if there arent so many people in the pot..

I guess Ill try to be a little more aggro with draws in my next session and see how it treats me.