Handling Bad Beats in a Positive Way: Article from Ed Miller

Great reprint of an article by Ed Miller in the August 11, 2010 issue (Vol. 23, No. 16) of Card Player magazine.

I read this in the Noted Poker Authority blog, one of the poker blogs I like to follow.

One of the main points he makes is one that's been noted here over and over again: Playing the right odds and making the right play doesn't guarantee that you'll win any specific given hand. But, over time, it will be the profitable way to play. If you can keep that in mind, the bad beats sting (a little) less.

http://www.notedpokerauthority.com/a...ing-beats.html

If you're making the right decisions and getting it in good, after a while the whole concept of "bad beat" starts to shift for you. AA cracked by KK that flopped a set? Meh, gonna happen, just like when the weather channel says there's a 30% chance of rain and it does. Coin flips are just that - a flip, one winner, one loser, same odds. It's tough for a lot of people to get, but the best hand pre-flop may be behind on the flop and total junk by the river. Poker is a game of grey areas and less grey areas, you do the best with the information you have, learn from it, and move on.
Thanks for the link!

Wish it was that easy to digest, I envy you guys who can.

When I get multiple bad beats in a row, it can drive me crazy.

For me it is not so much the bad beats which get me, but more the horrible plays, when i see a horrible player go on a huge run it gets to me, and i usually have to take a break to remind myself that if these people who make these horrible played never lucked out they wouldnt play, and wouldnt give away their money.

That's a great article. I think Ed Miller is one of the best poker writers out there. I read his book on small stakes holdem when I got back into the game this past year and it gave me a great foundation. Since I have switched over to NL I am planning on getting his books on NL.

On the issue of tilt: My game has a million places to improve but one real strength that I have is that I am basically tilt proof. If I am an 80/20 favorite than 20% of the time I will lose.

No offense but I just don't get why experienced players who have looked at the basic math of the game get wound up about this. As long as you are practicing bankroll management and your not a rigtard who thinks (insert site here) is plotting against you a bad beat should just be another hand. If it weren't for suckouts there would be no fish.

Okay, I'll get off of my soapbox now.

You want the horrible players. Next time someone beats your Aces with K4 by flopping two pair you should actually clap as it is these players that will make you a long term profit.

It's happened to me but I just shake it off now, although it took me about 60,000 hands to get there:

Full Tilt - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3
CO: $0.69
BTN: $4.53
Hero (SB): $2.00
BB: $0.58
UTG: $3.34
UTG+1: $1.88
MP: $3.14
MP+1: $5.55
LP: $2.00
Hero posts SB $0.01, BB posts BB $0.02
Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero has A♣ A♥
fold, fold, MP calls $0.02, MP+1 calls $0.02, fold, CO calls $0.02, BTN calls $0.02, Hero raises to $0.16, fold, MP calls $0.14, MP+1 calls $0.14, fold, fold
Flop: ($0.54, 3 players) K♥ T♠ 4♣
Hero bets $0.54, fold, MP+1 raises to $1.08, Hero raises to $1.84 and is all-in, MP+1 calls $0.76
Turn: ($4.22, 2 players) 6♠
River: ($4.22, 2 players) 2♣
Hero shows A♣ A♥ (One Pair, Aces)
MP+1 shows K♦ 4♦ (Two Pair, Kings and Fours)
MP+1 wins $3.94

The above hand should not be classified as a bad beat. To me, bad beat occurs when you get most, if not all of your money in as a huge favourite, then simply get sucked out on later streets.

With the hand you showed, you put 16c in when you were a favourite, but ended up putting the rest of your stack in when you were behind. This is why people tend to lose so much in micro cash games by falling in love with their big pair and lose their whole stack when their opponents outflop them. I fell victim to this at first, but later wised up and tend to lose a lot less with one pair hands (I'm a big nit btw).

With that flop, the only draw possible was QJ, and even then they only have six outs. Therefore, you don't have to bet so much as to commit yourself on the flop. Remember this also, flop minraises in micros generally mean big hands (at least two pairs). Don't come in with the mindset "I can't lose with Aces", which normally leads you to just shove every flop come what may.

"Small hands, small pots. Big hands, big pots" - works wonder every time

GL at the tables

And no, you shouldn't be clapping when you get it in bad against these fishes. Dumping money against them when you are behind won't make you a long term winner.

With that AA hand, the flop minraise narrowed his range considerably. This being a multiway pot reduced the villain's chance of bluffing to virtually zero. The hands you're beating are pretty much AK (6 combinations). I doubt villain would raise for value with KQ or KJ, since you showed so much strength pre and post flop. With that minraise, the following hands beat you: KT (12 combinations), TT (3 combinations), and 44 (3 combinations). Here you're only beating 6 combos, and are way behind to the other 18. This might not be as accurate as equity vs range, but should give you a good idea of how to narrow down someone's range based on post flop actions.

I enjoyed the article but one of my biggest tilt issues is precisely knowing the percentages. I almost feel like if I didn't know how strong my chances are I'd be better off emotionally.

You take 88 losing to j4 with a flop of q8j. Then you take a day filled with them which I know happens but the numbers just astound me how I could lose that many. It's so mathematically unlikley; and then combine it with tournament play which knocks you out anytime you lose one of them and wooboy.... lookout!

I mean it's ok when it happens once.. heck even twice but string a few together... painful to even consider the numbers.

bad beats are a part of poker just like dealing with garbage is apart of a garbage mans day, you just have to learn how to bring the good out in everything and you will be succesful, the more negative you become in life the more life becomes negative on you

If you're an above average player relative to your opponents, you're probably going to take more meaningful bad beats than you hand out. Some people seem to think this isn't fair, and that it should even out. That's actually the last thing they should want since you can't be in position to hand one out unless you were significantly behind.

Yeah I get very distraught when I see basd beats happen to me, but even more upset when disgrceful players keep getting lucky and knocking out others when the terrible player has a worse hand. I just cant stand it sometimes and its really disgrace to the game of poker.

I like this article, make me feel alittle better when I lost my pocket kings last week when a guy call a allin bet with T,8 and then won

I try not to go ALL IN pre-flop. Everytime I've done that, I get burned even when I have a great hand. My bad beats seem to dry up after a while.

agree cazique, just blew off 3days profit by clinging to AA.My opponent had 24 spades suited but I failed to raise large enough against two opponents pre-flop and even when my opponent was calling my large bets post flop I refused to believe he had a straight because my over pair to the board was so huge.

Not only did I do this once,I then got aggressive against another board I had dominated with a big pair only to lose to a set of Jacks.

On both occasions my judgement was lacking and the only thing to blame was that