"Getting the right price" --- "Priced In"

Okay... so I'm pretty new to poker. I'm starting to get a pretty good idea about pre-flop strategy and I understand calculating my odds post flop. For some reason though... I have a hard time understanding the relationship to my odds of hitting my hand vs. the amount of a call I'm faced with. Is my question even coming out right?

You are not alone. Let's take a common example. You have As-9s and the board comes 4s-8s-Qh. You have a 4:1 (38 cards dont make a flush and 9 do or 38:9) chance of hitting your flush on the next card.

Now let's say the pot has $100 in it and your opponent bets $20, you have to call $20 to win $120 or 6:1 (120:20) on your money. So its a call.

If your opponent bets $50, then you have to call $50 to win $150 or 3:1, so now you are not getting the right "price" to call.

I won't get into implied odds or reverse implied odds. Just learn the above until its second nature.

All you have to do is divide the number of outs you have by how many cards are remaining to get the odds of hitting that out.

So, say you have 78 and the pot is 20 dollars and 5 6 Q J are on the board and you think your opponent has pocket queens so you need to hit a straight to win.

Well you have 8 outs to your straight and there are 46 unseen cards. 46 divided by 8 = 5.75. So the odds of hitting your straight are 5.75 to 1. (5.5 to 1 if you count the two queens you suspect your opponent to hold)



So if your odds on improving to a straight are 5.75 to 1, then the pot has to be laying you over 5.75 to 1 to call profitably.

If he bet 4 then the pot would be 24 and you would have to call 4 to see the river. That means the pot would be laying you 6 to 1. That would be a profitable call.

If he bet 10 then the pot would be 30 to 10 or 3 to 1 and a call would not be immediately profitable but might be profitable if you hit your straight on the river and anticipate him moving all in. Thats when you move into the area of implied odds.

That's a pretty good explanation, but to take it a bit futher for math-challenged people llike me :

=== 6:1 (pot odds) vs 4:1 (drawing odds) === ("Correct" price) :

4:1 to make the flush, so for every 5 times you play for that flush draw, you'll hit it once (on average).

So, assuming a $120 pot and a $20 call for each game, you'll spend $100 to win $600.

You'll win 1 /5 so :

bets : 5 x $20 = $100

lose : 4 x $20 = $80

Win : 1 x $120 = $120

$120 (won) - $80 (lost) = $40 profit

=== 3:1 (pot odds) vs 4:1 (drawing odds) === ("InCorrect" price) :

You still win 1 /5 (4:1 drawing odds).

bets : 5 x $50 = $250

lose : 4 x $50 = $200

Win : 1 x $150 = $150

$150 (won) - $200 (lost) = $50 net loss


All that said, I just read in another thread where a player mentioned that pot odds / drawing odds is more valid in fixed limit games, than in no-limit or pot limit games.

Thats true because immediate pot odds are sometimes over ruled by implied odds in NL but in limit this isn't often the case because one extra bet on the river rarely compensates for drawing with incorrect pot odds on the previous street.

Another good way to calculate n is easy is like this. lets say u r drawing for flush n have 8 cards to mak ur flush so 8 * 4 = 32. so means u can make a call of 32% of the pot to have a good odds. tats for the flop call. turn call is 8 * 2 so means 16% of pot u can call...

well how come in the very first example for the flush u say 38:9 for 4:1 hand odds, but in the next posts example for the str8 its 46:8 and why not 38:8 for the hand odds?
are those 2 diffrent ways?

Nope, it should be 38:8. I wasn't awake

Fixed

Some people say to figure out the odds just do like 47 or 46, however many cards are left unseen, divided by ur outs. Like in the second example which I guess was a typo, but have had people tell me that is the way to do it. Are they just uninformed?

But I always do like u guys said : (Cards unseen - outs) : outs. and if pot odds are better than ur chance of hitting , ex: 7:1 pot odds and 4.75:1 chance of hitting hand, than you would be getting good enough odds to call right? (i am no-limit player, not that that matters, just saying)

I understand implied odds a lil bit too(people say thats what NLHE is about more than expressed), but want to be able to know my expressed odds without having to use a calculator, before I focus on implied odds. So basicaly I want to memorize my expressed odds, which I have not memorized them yet.

Theres the 2 and 4 rule, but that is a percentage rather than a fraction. If I took the pot odds and reversed the fraction does that give me the percantage of my pot odds as opposed to a fraction. ex: 50$ call into a 250$ pot is 5:1 pot odds, and if you have 8 outs with 1 card to come,using the rule of 2 than 8x2=16 so 16% chance of hitting, then u take ur pot odds and reverse the fraction to get a percentage? 1:5 = .2 or 20% ? so 20% is higher than 16% so good call?

Also can u reverse the fraction on ur hand odds to get the percentage?
ex: 9 outs with 1 card to come (46-9):9 = 37:9 = 4.1:1
So could u do 1:4:1 to get ur percentage? or am i just confusing myself? Am I confusing myself with odds for hitting with odds for missing, or do u only need to know the chance of hitting? And with percentages do u want a lower pot odds % than chance of hittin %, cuz like 4:1 chance of hittng and 6:1 pot odds give u 25% chance of hitting, but 17% pot odds, so with percentage do u want higher chance to hit than pot odds as opposed to fractions u want higher pot odds than chance of hitting?

9x2=18% but 1:4.1=24%? is it because the 2 and 4 rule is not 100% accurate, or am i mixing myself up?

I can get the easy fractions into percentages lik 1:5=20% 1:4=25%, but the harder ones I just use my computers calculator, like the 1:4.1 = .243902243902 and keeps going, so I move the decimal place 2 to the right for my percentage and round off the next number to the 10th for 24% or 24.4% to be exact?

Hrm, sorry I'm a little rusty on my math skills I guess, so I hope I did those right, and also that someone can understand my questions, thanks for any help clearing up my confusion.

Its a valuable skill to have. As far as working out your pot-odd's, I was always told to simply divide the existing pot up by the amount your faced with calling.
E.G. there is $200 in the pot and your opponent bets $50. There are now 5 x $50 bets in the pot. Your getting 5 x $50's to your one $50 call. So 5-1.
If that makes sense to you, I think its the easiest way to visualise it. Thats how it finally sunk in with me.
So if your 5-1 or better to make your hand, the POT odd's are in your favour.
That isn't to say that the HAND ODD's are in your favour though. If the board is looking dangerous (possible flush or flush draw while your chasing an open ended straight, or holding trips maybe) then forget about whether your getting equity, use some common sense and get out.
One of the most valuable skills in the game (and probably the toughest to learn) is how to master your opponents range, judge what he's holding and bet your 'nut' hand in such a way that you always give him the odd's to call and force him to throw chips away chasing.

This turned out to be a great thread... Good posts. Thanks all who contributed.

You may also want to keep in mind that outs aren't always "clean", which refers to the possibility of hitting some of them but still not having the best hand. Take the example above where you're drawing to the nut flush. If you're drawing to a lower flush or if the board is paired, you can catch and still be second-best, which often gets very expensive.

Yeah, I think I got it figured out, but I need to use my calculator on my pc sometimes, but hopefully it will eventualy just come natural?

I'm going to point you all to this......

http://www.cardschat.com/odds-for-dummies.php

poker seems to be a lot about statistics...The odds can vary depending on how many people are playing. For the pre-flop, that's when your hand says it all. If you have a high pair, then you are good and safe to start agressive....if not, just wait and see the odds