To fold or not to fold? This is the question ...

#1 3rd April 2010, 10:42 AM

I had a long debate yesterday with a friend of mine (he's also a player) concerning the following case: 9 handed sng, relatively even stacks tight play not many hands played, early stage 20/40, hero UTG pocket Aces, raise 160, fold fold .... Btn calls, BB calls, flop Kh Qh 5d . BB goes all in.

What do you think is the correct play thinking long term. We have no read on our opponents.

#2 5th April 2010, 4:11 AM

You are an 86% favorite to a random range, which if we have absolutely no history on the person that is technically what we have. Do you have the Ace of hearts? because that could change the thinking a little bit. Chances are he would have something like KJ or maybe medium/high suited connectors like JT or 8h7h. I'm thinking KK/QQ/AK would have raised you preflop, so that would probably take out the sets, not to mention it wouldn't be wise to push into you with that strong of a hand when you were the preflop raiser. I think you're good here.

#3 5th April 2010, 4:59 AM

I think it's an fairly easy call here with the AA unlikely of a set but 2pairs i would be afraid off but I don't see I would be laying down this here.Next time when you want feed back please include stack sizes cuz if he was short stacked instant call.

#4 5th April 2010, 5:27 AM

IT Depends, lol. In a higher buyin sng I don't think you'll see this happening... I'm assuming micro.
EZ Call
How can we put villain on a hand that beats us? We were preflop aggressor, raising utg. If they had 2pr w KQ, you really think they're going to shove here 3xPot? They're pretty much assured that Utg will fire a cbet (or BTN) so they if they were in fact really strong I'm sure they'd check-rs or c/C (depending upon stacks, etc.).
Same goes for set of 5's &/or AhJh. I don't think BB is shoving either of those either (um, do we hold Ah?).

I'm never folding this.

#5 5th April 2010, 8:10 AM

Thanks for the feedback. I lost on a situation like this recently to KQ but i'm pretty sure now i made the right call. i'll do it again. Thanks.

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