Explanation of outs

Snakmacher

Snakmacher

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When I began to understand things in poker - one of players in tournament told me that my counting of outs - possibilities of increasing hand is odd and wrong... So I checked a lot of net pages before I found what outs are and realised that there is mathematical explanation to this problem.

For example you are holding 2c2d and in pack of cards are 2222 (meaning you have 2 outs pre-flop to increase the power of your hand ) and now continue.

Flop can be Ad 4h 5c (you have 2 outs to make trips) + 4 outs that 3 will come and you will get straight.

There are 13 cards of each suit Ah, 2h, 3h, 4h, 5h, 6h, 7h, 8h, 9h, 10h, Jh, Qh, Kh . - 13

For example today I played this hand holding Jd Jc. Raised by 4 bet and got called - flop came:

5h Jh 9h

I got trips and had 1 out to quads and more outs only if it would came a pair giving me fullhouse

Oponent was holding 8d 8h (getting flush draw and smaller pair) - he had therefore 2 outs( 8c, 8s) to get trips or quads and 9 outs to get another heart and get flush. Also if turn showed and river showed combination (10, 7) or (10, Q) he would get straight - so he had in fact:

2 outs + 9 outs + 4 outs + 4 outs +4 outs = 23 outs
1 out + 3 outs + 3 outs + any other pair = 7 outs + outs for any pair available in deck of cards that would come on turn or river

I won but was very lucky that he didn't have flush on flop and that he didn't get one aditional heart.
 
BluffMeAllIn

BluffMeAllIn

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huh? backdoor draws count only as .5 outs generally (someone will correct me if I'm wrong) but the runner runners of 88, T7, TQ would be 1.5outs as opposed to the 10 outs your giving him and even based on how you calculated it 3 outs can be removed because the T7Q of hears were already counted in the 9 flush outs...... so he was more like ~10 possible outs to beat you if you don't improve.

You already have a made hand so the outs you count for yourself simply means he is drawing dead if you hit them.

Basically there is an 18% chance he hits the flush on the turn, if he doesn't he just lost a flush out going to the river (because now the heart that matches the turn card gives you a boat) so a roughly 16% chance he will hit the flush on the river.

So you have the lead in the hand at 65/35 to win and even if he hits the turn flush, you still have a 14% chance to boat or quad up on the river.

Clear as mud :D
 
John A

John A

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Correct, backdoor outs are usually about .5 outs, but they can be as high as 1 depending on the board texture. You have to remember with outs that it's an approximation. You are guesstimating. Ace Poker Drills has a free odds and outs trainer if anyone wants practice in this area. It has a simple mode that uses the 2/4 rule, and then a more advanced mode that counts back door outs. Other parts of the program are paid but the equity calculator and odds and outs trainer are free.

http://acepokersolutions.com/Poker_equity_calculator.html
 
FanatsLV

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register in pokerstars pokerschool there are all explanation about what you what now ....
 
Propane Goat

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Does the number of players at a table ever have an effect when you're calculating outs and odds?

For example, let's say somebody shoves QQ-22 UTG at a full table, it's folded around to you in the BB with AK and you're considering a call. We always call this a flip because we assume that we have close to 50% equity pre-flop and have 6 outs, but we can only be guaranteed these numbers if we're HU because some players may have been dealt weak Aces and Kings and folded them.

I've watched a number of videos and have never seen this mentioned, does it even matter in the long run?
 
zarzar78

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"For example today I played this hand holding Jd Jc. Raised by 4 bet and got called - flop came:

5h Jh 9h

I got trips and had 1 out to quads and more outs only if it would came a pair giving me fullhouse

Oponent was holding 8d 8h (getting flush draw and smaller pair) - he had therefore 2 outs( 8c, 8s) to get trips or quads and 9 outs to get another heart and get flush. Also if turn showed and river showed combination (10, 7) or (10, Q) he would get straight - so he had in fact:

2 outs + 9 outs + 4 outs + 4 outs +4 outs = 23 outs
1 out + 3 outs + 3 outs + any other pair = 7 outs + outs for any pair available in deck of cards that would come on turn or river"


That's not correct.
Outs are counted to calculate your odds.
The 2 outs for quad of 8 cant be counted like this, in fact 1 out has post flop 2.12% to come, 2 outs have 4.24% but in this hand to get that quad he have just 0.04% = (1/47)* (1 /46 ) chance to get it on turn and river ( The Logical algebra fonction AND )
The same for straight odds, to get that hand 10/Q for example he's odds are (4/47)*(4/46)=0.74% but in your count you get 8 outs = 8/47 = 17.2%

Hope that help
 
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