Expected Value All-in Performance Graph

#1 2nd November 2009, 2:41 PM

Hi,

Can someone explain to me what this graph in PT3 shows me?

I always taught never to raise a queation without having thiought about it first so here's what I think it means.

This graph charts each hand plotting how much it expects you to win based on the EV of the starting hand and plots this against how much you actually won. Correct or bunkum?

PS loving this forum!!!!

#2 2nd November 2009, 2:47 PM

It only charts hands where you are (effectively) all-in.

#3 2nd November 2009, 2:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by F Paulsson

It only charts hands where you are (effectively) all-in.

OK. What's deemed effectively all in and why does the graph overlay exactly with the actual number of hands played?

#4 2nd November 2009, 3:01 PM

it tells you exactly what your EV was in the hand. if there was $100 in the pot and you had AA vs KK it would tell you $80 EV. it calculates the equity of the actual cards that were showndown.

#5 2nd November 2009, 3:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cardplayer52

it tells you exactly what your EV was in the hand. if there was $100 in the pot and you had AA vs KK it would tell you $80 EV. it calculates the equity of the actual cards that were showndown.

Right, I get you...my ponit is though, if the hands were not shondown then how is it calculating the EV?

#6 2nd November 2009, 3:28 PM

Hands that don't reach showdown and aren't all-in are counted as their actual dollar amount. So it mirrors the "actual" graph perfectly on all those hands and the difference is only hands that are all-in.

It's, effectively, a measurement of luck in all-in pots and is almost entirely useless.

#7 2nd November 2009, 5:26 PM

Ah, I get you.

Thanks to all who helped - sorry for posting obvious questions!

#8 2nd November 2009, 7:56 PM

Naw; it's good that you ask questions. It's not entirely obvious how they construct it.

#9 4th November 2009, 5:19 AM

These EV graphs are favorites for the big volume cash game grinders when they are on a losing streak so they can post a ridiculous hideous graph with their sad story in their blog

#10 4th November 2009, 7:36 AM

Anyone wanna post one?

#11 4th November 2009, 8:15 AM

Hands like this really make your EV graph sad

+$506 in EV
+$203.40 actual money. Once again, I have Sklansky bucks for sale.

Absolute Poker $100.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 353443
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: $212.20
Hero (BTN): $192.85
SB: $206.15
BB: $158.40
UTG: $47.75

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BTN with A ♥ A ♠
2 folds, Hero raises to $2.75, SB raises to $9.25, 1 fold, Hero raises to $28, SB calls $18.75

Flop: ($57.00) 3 ♣ J ♦ 2 ♦ (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $41.00, SB raises to $178.15, Hero calls $123.85 all in

Turn: ($386.70) T ♦ (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: ($386.70) A ♦ (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $386.70
Hero shows A ♥ A ♠
SB shows K ♣ K ♦
SB wins $369.90
(Rake: $3.50)

#12 4th November 2009, 8:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by F Paulsson

It's, effectively, a measurement of luck in all-in pots and is almost entirely useless.

almost, but not entirely.

the all in ev graph is probably a slightly less noisy estimate of your true win rate that the $ graph itself. Only slightly less, of course, but still less noisy.

Poker would be a much much easier game if you could have a measure of how good you play that is not affected by noise. You could immediately figure out your mistakes, what moves work and what moves don't, and that would be invaluable in making you a better player. Anything that brings you closer to that noiseless measure of how good you play is beneficial.

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