Is everyone bluffing?

Originally Posted by D'wilius

if you're worried about the case jack and the dreaded 5th jack, people will bluff you all day.

Originally Posted by Steveg1976

if people are bluffing you that often then is sounds like they have you pegged as a rock which means that not only were laying down too much you are losing a lot of value from well timed bluffs.

Gordon said it best, if you don't occasionally get caught bluffing you aren't bluffing enough.

Originally Posted by Dorkus Malorkus

I remember reading in some book or other that "most actions mean exactly what they appear to mean at face value" or suchlike. I think that applies somewhat here. Sometimes you will fold the best hand and sometimes you will make a river herocall only to be shown the nuts. As poker is a game of imperfect information (unless you're an Absolute Poker/Ultimatebet superuser ofc), these things are inevitable. But certainly against unknowns at the $5s, just take every action at face value.

Steve, at $5 donkngos nobody really has anyone else pegged as anything because 90% of the players can just about tie their own shoelaces.

Originally Posted by D'wilius

I'm sure some have noticed you always have the goods or don't go to showdown often. You don't have to become like them, but you do need to learn to call a big bluff on occasion. That'll make them think twice and its some of the easiest money to be made. I'm tight and don't bluff often, but I've learned a little about calling some playing limit holdem. You see showdown alot and its cheaper to learn. NL bluffs will be a little diff but still good practice.

Originally Posted by bw07507

Please, please dont play rebuys if you are only willing to play 3 hands an hour, especially during the rebuy period. Early in rebuys you should be taking tons of chances trying to build a massive chipstack since you can just rebuy if you bust. Hence the name

Originally Posted by DaFrench1

To the OP

Ya, I would say most people are bluffing but that is neither here nor there, The game is based on this anyway so what do you expect? Just mind you don't become a calling station with that in mind or you'll lose far too much in the long run.

My advice would generally be this: Use position more to your advantage as in try to be the guy that gets checked to rather than the one that checks to your opponent. Also, use the re-raise if you suspect someone is bluffing or just c-betting out rather than calling them down, if they are you will generally take the pot down right there rather than going to a showdown and if you get re-raised or faced with a shove then you pretty much know to get out there. I used to be tight too and was happy with regular itm's but now I'm pretty loose and agg overall and its a lot more fun and profitable.

Once you start thinking more about situations rather than cards then you will know you are on the right track. Tournament NL Holdem isn't just about playing good cards, I would say its more about knowing when to fold great cards because you don't like the action and when to play bad ones very aggressively. You are right about gauging your stack for the amount of bluffs and call-downs you can make but that all comes later...

Have fun experimenting!

Originally Posted by Ranger390

rindhoops: I feel your pain! I am/was very similar to you...tight, aggressive. But, that also means I have/had a tendency to get bluffed. Every time someone made a big bet into my good hand, I'd see "monsters under the bed" and believe that they had the immortal nuts. Several times I became frustrated and called anyway, only to discover that they had much less than the nuts and we bluffing. As a result, I think I am less bluffable than in the past. Now, I just need to avoid going too far in the opposite direction and making bad calls.

Originally Posted by RickH2005

Being a fairly tight player myself, I do, however, occasionally bluff. And when I do, I will, at times, SHOW my bluff! That way, when I DO have a strong hand, I will get called, and BAM!!! I got their stack!! However, I don't ALWAYS show my bluff--THAT KEEPS 'EM GUESSIN'!!!

Originally Posted by bw07507

Please, please dont play rebuys if you are only willing to play 3 hands an hour, especially during the rebuy period. Early in rebuys you should be taking tons of chances trying to build a massive chipstack since you can just rebuy if you bust. Hence the name

Originally Posted by rindhoops

Hi Steveg, I think you have answered my question.

As a 'real' gambler who rarely bets without some sort of edge,
I am loathe to bluff and v rarely do, people must notice this.
Yu are right I really ought to bluff a lot more, It's just not in my nature though!

In my defence, last night for example I played in a $5 rebuy,
I played 3 hands an hour (nearly fell asleep) but got to the money
90th/1000 I think & got unlucky, so I'm playing v tight.

As for going to showdown my monitoring software seems to view a high 'wts%' as a bad thing, (my av is 49%) in other words my software
(Holdem Indicator) is telling me I'm not laying enough hands down,
prob because my average 'wtsw%' is a rather poor 50% considering
the hands I play.

nevertheless I feel I am getting better at spotting a bluff, I just assume every bet is a bluff now & I am usually right

Originally Posted by rwilson

Hi Rindhoops

I understand where you're coming from with this statement - "As a 'real' gambler who rarely bets without some sort of edge", and I think we any player who takes their poker remotely seriously tries to do this.. however I think it's important to point out that mathematical edges regarding which cards are likely to fall out of the deck or whether your hole cards are likely to be the best aren't the only ways to determine advantages in poker.

In low limit tourneys and full ring games you can be mildly successful by simply playing the cards. But the fact of the matter is you're very rarely going to find yourself in a situation where you have the best cards for a majority of the time, so eventually, to progress, players have to find ways to keep winning when they don't have the best cards.

In a lot of circumstances these bluffs or semi-bluffs that you are having bet into you may actually be mathematically correct play by the opponent- i.e they are exploiting an 'edge' they have over you. Where you might think someone's acting like a maniac for betting 4,5 or whatever into you.. they may actually have a sound reason to do so, whether they know it or not!

For example, if a player is folding 85+% of hands preflop and only continuing after the flop when they hit the board, then other players on the table can justify raising and betting nearly any two cards into them, because it's a play that will win a higher percentage of the time. When you take into account the likelyhood the 'rock' will fold preflop, the odds that the rock will miss the flop and fold if he does call the initial raise, then add those percentages to the chances of your weaker hole cards actually holding up if the hand goes to a showdown, you'll find raising preflop or calling then betting these weaker hands on the flop is more than likely mathematically justifiable correct play against this type of rock.

So the moral is! don't always just look at the likelyhood of hole cards being the best or the odds of cards hitting on the board, and by all means DON'T just assume that every bet is a bluff cause you could just turn into a calling station. Look into the other "implicit" edges in poker tournaments and sng's. The better you get at working out when and why an opponent is likely to fold, the more successful you'll be.

You might find some articles on ICM interesting. There's a few on this site but some do get pretty in depth: Independent Chip Modeling Part 2: Positive Chip EV Doesn’t Mean Positive Monetary EV