Confused about Moshman sample question

Hello everyone!

So far I've been playing 0.02/0.04 games and my bank roll went from $20 -> 21.50 in about 9 hours of play (appx 50 hands/hr) so I'm seeing an increase in profits but these games are excruciatingly boring and I always get busted on the river. I want to play a game where bets actually mean something which led me to seek out a new game.

I just started lurking around here a few days ago and have read from many people that Moshman's book and sng is the way to go.


I'm currently reading Moshman's book and on page 22 (Hand 1-2) he says...

Blinds: t20-t40 9 players

Your hand: You (t1940) Ks Kc UTG. Table has been loose

Play? Call 40

7 players in pot t280 in pot.

-----

Flop Qh Qc Td
Action: Blinds check

Question: check or bet?
A: check

Player to the left bets 40 and gets 3 callers

-----

So the pot odds are now 11:1 (pot is 440 and call is 40)

2 outs so that's 5% to hit my set.

Not understanding why I should call this? I get how to do pot odds and figure out my odds but putting them together is confusing me lol.

11:1 pot odds
2/47 cards to help me (5%), or 45/47 against me....

When I put it into EV format I can understand why I should call but I don't think at the table I have time to calculate EV. I just need a little help understanding in a more simple manner that this is a good call. I understand the coin flip scenario but that's simple to understand. Putting the ratios and percent to win is confusing.

EV
440(2/47)+40(45/47)
440(.0426)+40(.9574)

18.744+38.298

EV~57

Thanks all. =)

That is an easy call. It is not about EV here . Poker is not only about math but also about reading the opponents and speculating their mistakes.
You pay cheap to see the turn. If you hit you will make the one with the trips that is not protected his hand, pay badly for his mistake. If you do not hit than you payed almost nothing to see the turn.
Collin Moshman's book is not only about math but it is about how to combine a good play respecting the math of the game, the read on the opponents and the mistakes they make. That is why is such a good book. Of course that mastering all that is in that book requires a lot of study and experience
I read it 4 times and i think i have to read it another 40 times and play 100000 times more SNgs than i have played untill now to get close to that lvl of thinking.

So remember. The book is not only about the math of the game. It is also about reads, and about how to speculate mistakes.

The reason its a good call, is that the pot odds are 11:1. So if you make this call you only have to have the best hand 10% of the time for it to be profitable. Having only 2 outs doesn't necessarily mean you wont win with out them. Theres only a tiny chance that a villain has a queen.

Do you have to limp pre cos I'd stop reading any book that told me to limp KK.

I do not agree with the last part. 6 ppl other than you to see the flop =12 cards. . 52 - 3 cards from the flop -2 kings=47
2 queens in 47 cards means that chances a queen is in those 12 cards are better than 50%.

Re-read 1-2 makes perfect sense to me, you went for a limp/raise UTG and were called by six players.Two queens flopped and the chances one of six players had a queen were large.

You take the 11-1 odds bet on the flop, hoping for the KK to improve and fold the unimproved turn as the t250 bet was begging for a call.

Moshman wrote in that example about a verry loose table where we could expect a raise preflop fom one of the players so with a reraise we could take the pot down immediately or if we still have 1 caller or 2 we can increase the size of the pot substantially. That is quite possible at small buy-ins SNGs.

But like I said with the 11:1 pot odds, if they don't have a queen only 30-40% of the time we still profit.

That part i agree but only partially. We only speculate the hand at this moment because of the minimum raise. We do not know what the others really have. Someone can have a full house with 2 tens in his hand. The others can have draws. If suppose someone bets 1/3 of the pot , that we are sure we are beat by trips or full house at this moment and our only chance is a king 23:1. In this case we should fold according to pot odds.

For our case putting our opponents on a hand and the reads we have on them , decides if we call or fold according to pot odds.

PS.In theory this is correct and it it obvious in this example. But there are hands verry hard to read without experience and study.
At high blind play you cannot always call according to pot odds because some calls require third or half of your stack. And i am sure no serious player limps with KK at high blind stage

At the crux was, limp waiting for a c/r against a loose caller, but 6 people called and the flop held two queens.One of the six hands was almost sure to hold a queen, the small turn bet almost shouted where it was.

Collin actually explains on page 22 that the intention is re raising the raise. He mentions that raising is a reasonable option, but an early limp on this table expects to be raised. He mentions his strategy to get the most in the pot, and that the table actually limps all around was unexpected on a loose table. The hand example is also showing what can happen when you make a play that doesent work out, and how to deal with this post flop. We call the 40 bet here on the flop as 40 to win 440 is a reasonable risk to take. But we are also ready to leave this hand (as explained) when we dont hit and face real aggression, as happens here.

Hey Pascal, normally I would agree with you, but I have the book, and the way he describes this situation makes this a reasonable play, IMO, although I will almost always raise here UTG on a loose table cause the chance of many staying in are very good, and if I dont get a raise my KK will have a big chance of being beaten post flop against multiple limpers.

I read an article in Bluff Magazine recently where that was called the "Hughes Strategy" and I still think it's BS - if we raise we probably get 3bet by late position on an aggro table anyway, and limp reraising looks sick strong.

Absolutely correct, a strategy to deal with this hand which went pear shaped.

You need trow the book in the bin. In a sit n go low blind levels. most people call a blind..7 in all..7 times 40 is 280! take the bloody blinds! raise. you cnat just limp in with kings let 6 others see a flop. Now this situation yes you got 2 outs and got pot odds But someone may have queen and being cautious as has weak kicker therefore only calling blind. People with pairs will also have 2 outs. You cant play poker like that. you have to raise if they all fold so be it you take a nice tidy 240. But the fact 6 others have called you are bound to get a caller. Chuck your book in the bin. You do not let people see a cheap flop when youve got kings.

Have you read any of the posts before you?

Obviously haven't read the book or any posts in this thread.
I've got the book and it's great.
I agree Colin explains his reasoning for limping.