Cold streaks end in time, not number of hands played.

This is just a thought that came to mind recently for new players much like myself. This concept is very obvious to alot of people, so this is for the people who still haven't caught on like myself for a while. Bad runs, cold streaks, whatever you want to call them, they happen and they take a lot of getting used to, if you can even call it that. so one thing i've had to think about is that if i'm on a bad run, there's no playing my way out of it. and if im on a bad run the next day and the next day then im still not going to play my way out of it. but if on the fourth day my card drought is over then i'm playing into it. So in the end it's just a way of being patient and if you try and know it's not your day, then it's not your day. but there are so many more days of the game which never ends.

Just thought i'd throw it out there, if you like it, take it; if not, then send it right on back

There is no such thing as being on a bad run. Past events have no effect on the future.

Sending your post back.

So you're saying this because i misused a term? what if i never put the words "bad run" in there? Then what would you have had to say?

I would say the same. There is no such thing as being on a bad run / cold streak / downswing.

Agreed, there is no such thing as a cold streak / downswing etc.

The terms cold streak / downswing are applied retrospectively for periods of time where hero is delt bad cards / gets outdrawn a lot / hits top of villians range.

Best advice you will hear is quit playing when you are tilting from a few coolers or not playing your best for whatever reason. Like others mention every hand is in it's own bubble. A poker hand is unaffected by previous and future hands. However, many players mindset changes due to past hands. If previous hands are causing you to play bad, you really need to quit.

I have to say controlling my tilt after bad beats has been the best improvement I have made to my game.

Eh? What do you determine this common factor though? I don't understand that. Many of times you have a session on pick up best cards and are in front all the way and get out drawn on the turn and river many hands in a session and lose a fair few buy-ins, isn't that classed as being on a badrun/downswing etc?


Like Billy I don't understand what you mean. Is this in context to his actual question or thought? I thought it's very common to have hot and cold spells of either

A: Out drawing everyone on nearly every hand and winning buy in after buy in or

B: Aces,Kings and current favorite hands all the way down to the turn or river and being outdrawn and you class this as a bad run cold spell when it happens in a session time after time and as opposed to A, you lose buy ins.

If you're losing hand after hand in a session when getting the money in good then this is surely classed as a bad run/cold spell and down swing isn't it?

I do agree though that previous events/hands have no bearing what so ever on the next hand you lose to being sucked out on etc I'm just confused as to what you mean as bad run/downswing's and there is nothing that exists in that format. I just think it's a bad day and just one of those days..

hillbillys post was just stubborn and contributed nothing to the thread. so thanks ram and begley for actually responding with something worth reading.

Well people often say "Im doing bad I am on a downswing"

It is impossible to be ON a downswing because that would mean that the future outcome is some how based on previous events.

You can say that you have played the last 20K hands and had a downswing over those hands. The temptation is to assume that as it has lasted 20K hands its likely to continue for a while longer (that logic would be correct for almost anything you encounter in life) but in poker its not true. Future outcomes are not linked to past events so the fact that the DS has lasted 20K hands has no bearing on whether or not it will or not continue as from the very next hand played.

Thus the term downswing can only ever be applied retrospectively. You can never be "on" a downswing but you can have "had" a downswing.

So time / number of hands etc are completely irrelivent.

Does that make more sense?

also, reading through the golden archives i've come across people mentioning lengthy cold streaks several times. so i was just trying to get across how it's harder to break them by playing it out, rather than just waiting it out. but i mean, everyone is different and has their own ways of dealign with these sorts of things. i just thought my post could enlighten beginners. i too am still a beginner and realizing this has helped me. and im not saying that as soon as your aces get cracked by 74o then take a break for a week. but test the waters first to make sure you dont drown. and so your not spending precious time getting sucked out on and frustrating yourself. nomesayin?

How would you "play it out?"

There is a correct way of playing a hand.. all other ways are to varying degrees incorrect.

Actually what's better than sitting out for a undetermined period of time is to rub 2 pennies together 21 times then place them both on the train tracks (face up ldo). After they are flattened take 1 and put it in your pocket (right side only) and then place the other in your pillow. Sleep with it there for 1 night then alternate it with the one in your pocket. Sleep on that one for 1 further night then throw both pennies in the nearest body of water (mud puddles will do in a pinch). After that drink a strawberry shake and hit the tables. Your "downswing" doesn't stand a chance.

Where the **** do you come up with this stuff lol

I am so glad to hear other people do this too and I'm not the only one.

I'm still not clear what you are advising. What was it that helped you? Understanding variance?

Your title is the wrong way round FWIW.

Cold streaks end in number of hands played, not time.

The only difference is if you are playing bad from tilt or something similar, in which case it's not even a downswing, you're just playing badly.

thanks for all the input. its great to hear what other people have to say. and about the pennies... i tried it and it didn't work? did you use american or canadian?

Stu basically said what I would say.

The one thing I would add is that if you are affected by tilt then you will be more prone to a "downswing". But really, that "downswing" is you just deviating from a winning strategy, so it has nothing to do with a continued run of coolers, etc.

... lol, I fail at reading comprehension, what I said is exactly what Pascal said.

Try and play your A game all the time.
You will find it is varying from the correct play that ultimately starts a downswing, just keep making the right plays and eventually you will swing upwards again.Luck doesn't cause your "run" it is the wrong plays.

^^

This.

In other words - by reviewing my "downswing" streaks I found that large chunks of them I simply played worse than before.

For me it boils down to:

[[(# hands) x (+EV decisions)+ (#hands) x(-EV decisions)] x (variance)] - rake = +-$

For instance if I played super badly for two days, stopped for two days and then continued to play super badly my "downswing" would probably not stop .

I agree with you op, wvh is a troll.


See what I mean. WV taught me this a few years back, but it never works. Maybe one day!