Betting with 1 away from making my hand

I seem to be losing a lot on one part of my game. I am playing low limit (0.01/0.02 NLHE), and have found myself in a position of being one away from making my hand and faced with the choice of going all in to stay in the hand. The logic I have been using is below, but it does not seem to be paying off for me, is my logic flawed, or have I just had a run of bad luck?

The flush situation - I hold suited cards (and high suited, so if I do get a flush, I am confident I will have the nuts), 2 of my suit comes on the flop. opponent makes a large bet. Given that I have 2 cards to come, and only 1 of them has to be my suit. 47 unknown cards, 9 of which make my hand, 2 cards to go. Therefore 20% chance of getting it on first card. Assuming that does not make it, then 20% chance on second card (for a 24% chance of making my flush).

The Straight situation - After the flop I have an open ended straight draw. Similar to above, I figure that means I have 8 cards out of a possible 47 Unknown cards that will make my hand. Similar to above, this will equate to a possibility of about 22% to making my hand.

Is my math and logic above correct? Am I analysing the situation correctly, or am I forgetting about some important factors? I don't seem to be making these hands anywhere near the 1/4 to 1/5 of the time that my logic would suggest (note I am often not even in the hand when I go through this, I often fold and others take the hand to the river for me to look at). My decision to go all in with this hand is more dependent on other factors (size of the bet that I need to make, what I have seen the other player go all in with before, what other outs I may have, or if this is my only choice, etc).

If you are gonna call with an open-ended straight draw make sure you are getting the right pot odds to call and for your outs you have 8 outs .If you times it by 4 you get a 32% chance of hitting on the turn.Then times it by 2 you have a 16% chance of hitting on the river.As for a Flush you are only gonna hit a flush about 1-120 hands .However that is not entirely true.With a flush you have 9 outs times 4 which gives you 36% on the turn .Then cut that in half you would have a 18% chance of hitting on the river.It all depends on your outs and pot odds .If you are not getting the right pot odds dump it because in the long term you will be losing money.

Thanks for the reply ZackK. When you say if you are not getting the right pot odds, to dump it. So if I figure I have a 25% chance of making the hand, and the pot is at $2, then I should not go in for more than 50 cents, correct?

Can you please break down for me how you calculate the odds? I am not sure how you are calculating those odds.

You can find a tab labeled 'Strategy Articles" in the upper right portion of the screen. After clicking on this, there is a section called 'Poker Odds For Dummies", which will give you the info you need. Please don't in any way assume I am calling you a dummy.

Yes, correct.

There is a simple rule of 4 and rule of 2. Before turn multiply your outs with 4, that gives you % of hitting your card and before river multiply your outs with 2.

e.g. If you are on spade flush draw (2 spades in hand and 2 on board), then you have 9 possible spades (13 - 2 - 2) in deck out of 47. So your % of making flush on turn is 9*4 (36%) and on river 9*2 (18%).

So if the pot is 2 than you can put upto 36% of 2 (.72) before turn and 18% of the pot value before river.

Err... this is not correct. If you have a 25% chance of making a hand, you need the equivalent of 3:1 to break even, not 4:1. So if the pot is $2, you need to be calling an all in for $.67 to break even.

Math to illustrate this:

75% of the time you lose $.67
25% of the time you win $2

Expectation = -.75*$.67 + .25*$2 = 0

Roughly speaking, on the flop, you have a 1 in 5 chance to hit an open ended straight draw or a flush on the turn and a 1 in 3 chance in hitting on the turn OR river.

The chance you make the flush in the example is 36% on the turn OR river, and 18% on the river according to that rule. Not 36% on the turn and 18% on the river.

You're getting pot odds and probability mixed up as they are not the same. Just for example's sake, take the following situation: You have a 50% chance of winning the hand and the pot is $2. By this logic, you should only be putting in $1 into the pot even though you're putting in $1 to win $2.

The correct amount you can be putting in is 36%/(1-36%) or roughly 56% of $2 ($1.12) to break even.

Finally, and very importantly, this math only works for all in's. If you are facing a non all in bet on the flop, you should not be calling for the odds you will hit your hand by the river. Why? Because there is a good chance that you will face another bet on the turn. I'm not going to elaborate on this as it requires extensive explanation so doing some reading on this will probably help.

the people playing 1 cent games are on two two people,

either they have a lot of money and are playing for fun, or they are new and learning TV poker players who think that chasing 10% draws are a way to win.

I cant stand low limits, anything under $2-$4 is a real donkey fest.

But on MERGE, you go too low, say 2 cent or 25 cent games and the players are so tight youcant make a $1 and the house rake kills everyone, so there are some extremes to every site and level of play, wish you well on your game, your goal should be to get to $2-$4 and higher to play REAL poker

Too Calculate pots odds.For example if there two people in the pot and the pot at 200 and it 50 for you to call you are getting 4-1 on your money cause 50 goes in too 200 four times.There for if you are at the river and you are chasing a flush draw you have 9 outs and it 18% you are gonna hit that is roughly 5.1-1 that you will hit your flush there for every once out of 5 your gonna hit your flush .When the outs are more than the pots odds you will make money in the long run.If the pot odds are more than the outs or percentage of hitting your your flush for example if you are getting 7-1 on your money and you only have a 3-1 chance of hitting you are only gonna hit that money once in every 7 times therefore you are losing money in the long run.