Applying 2/4 Rule For Calculating Odds?

#1 4th August 2010, 12:38 PM

Board = 9h Qs 3h

Villian = Ah7h

Hero = Jh10h

When i used pokerstove Villian has 63% equity and Hero has 37%. When using the rule of 4 though i get Hero=48% equity

My calculation = Hero has 12 outs (8c,8s,8d,Kc,Ks,Kd) giving a straight + (10c,10s,10d,Jc,Js,Jd) giving a pair.

Heroes equity = 12*4
= 48%

Not sure if im applying rule correctly. I know it has some inaccuracy but didnt think it is this large.

#2 4th August 2010, 1:28 PM

Villain has redraws against hero's outs.

#3 4th August 2010, 1:58 PM

Also, villain doesn't need to hit anything to win, but hero must catch one of those 12 outs to win.

#4 4th August 2010, 2:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philthy

Also, villain doesn't need to hit anything to win, but hero must catch one of those 12 outs to win.

The 2/4 rule assumes we need to improve to win (i.e. it assumes villain currently has us beat).

The problem OP had was that 2/4 doesn't take into account the times we improve and still lose.

#5 5th August 2010, 1:17 AM

So whats the best way to calculate heroes equity if we think villian has alot of redraws? I didnt realise there were exceptions to the rule that resulted in large inaccuracy.

For example another similar hand with 12 outs but with equity alot lower then 48%:

Board = 7h 8s 2h

Villian = AhKh

Hero = 6c9c

My calculation = Hero has 12 outs (5c,5s,5d,10c,10s,10d) giving a straight + (6c,6s,6d,10c,10s,10d) giving a pair.

Heroes actual equity = 35%

If the you change the board to 7h 8s 2c eliminating the flush possibility thus reducing the number of redraws then the heroes equity = 48%. This answer is what you would expect using the 2/4 rule.

#6 5th August 2010, 1:29 AM

I made a mistake in last post Hero = 6h9h

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