Am I ready for 10NL?

Hello people, I just wanted to post some stats from my latest, quite promising though albeit small sample.
I phave been playing 5NL full handed cash games on pokerstars and over the last 40 hours of 4-tabling have managed exactly $1.00/hour at around 250 hands per hour.

I am particularly happy with my VPIP, PFR and W$WSF numbers. WTSD and W$@S I think are not too bad but I would like feedback on a few others.

VPIP from the SB I am not sure about and I am also a little concerned that I may folding too often to aggression after the flop? Recently I have been giving re-raises after the flop credit a lot more when I was raising with air or had less than perfect kickers. I was worried this could make me exploitable though I do table hop quite frequently. Do my numbers for these fall into a good range?

Also I have recently began to 3-bet light in the right spots with suited, non-suited connectors and suited one-gappers having discovered the gap concept. I have also stopped calling 3-bets which I guess makes ME exploitable to 3-betting in the same manner. Is there a magic number to folding to 3-bets thats right in the middle ground between leaking away chips but not being exploitable to players as savy as myself?

I guess as long as I am at tables where 3-betting light is pretty much unknown I will be safe but I would like to move up soon.

I do not at present use my HUD whilst playing. Is 10NL crushable using good solid ABC poker or is the HUD essential because everyone else is using it to track each others weaknesses?

I am pretty happy with my stealing frequency as I feel it ties in well with my VPIP and I don't feel like I get played back at often by the blinds.

Would I be right in thinking that my 3-bets should converge in the long term to beng 10% of my total pre-flop raises split equally between values and lights?

My UTG VPIP is 60% of my button VPIP with a smooth progression so positional awareness looks good.

The bottom half of the details sheet means pretty much nothing to me so I would appreciate any comments on anything that looks out of place?

In short I HATE playing at 5NL and can't wait to move up. So many more tables to choose from and much more like playing for real money. I have the bank roll and would expect my win rate to drop but is 4.21BB/100 enough to move up from considering the rake and the proportionally less free cash thrown about due to better players with more tilt control?

Thanks in advance guys as always and I look forward to your thoughts!

Frank.

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Your only up 4 buy ins for 10nl. What's your bankroll? If you have around 30 buy ins for that level then I would go for it. If not I would stay down at 5 nl. Also 1 thing. Your folding to flop bets to much.

You've folded to 75% of flop raises - are you betting the flop with too wide a range of hands?

10k isn't really a big enough sample to comment

play at least 100k hands at every level.. you got excited, paid attention, was especially attentive and got a bj before so you are playing your A-game and everything is glorious... grind for a month or two on the same level and experience your B-C-D games as well as everything that comes with it.. Also if you really are serious you should have AT LEAST 30 buy ins.. you need to really be comfortable with making the correct decision even if it cost you a whole BI.

I don't think there is that much difference game wise, however you will get the downswings, can you redeposit if you bust? If redepositing is an issue stay where you are, if it is not, I think you should give it a shot.

My bankroll is around $170 at the moment and I don't quite feel to totally comfortable with the bet sizes just yet. I do know that playing scared poker in any way is playing losing poker.

Yes I had a feeling that I might be folding too much to raises after the flop. I guess this means I am giving players too much credit... folding my AJ and AQ to a possible better kicker when raised on the flop? and/or C-betting too much? In the first instance I just feel that at these levels there is virtually no bluffing. Hell I can't think of one single time where I call that bluff when the board is obviously scary and it was the right decision!

Do you guys think I need to c-bet less? (473/528 opportunities or 89.6% or times) If so what number should I shoot for?

Yes there are so many factors contributing to whether I am plaing my A game or my D game, Tilt, tiredness and frustration being a major one. One of those can be removed from the equation and you are right, I have been playng well of late but I have in the past gone on terrible losing streaks that I know I cannot wholely put down to bad cards.

Redepositting is not an issue but I know that with BRM I should never have to do that... unless somehow tilt and variance was to stop me winning at 2NL... man that would suck so bad after 9 months of playng poker!

I think if you are c-betting 90% of the time then people are going to realise that you are merely c-betting constantly and will raise you. Drop it to around 60% and choose optimum times to c-bet; for example, if you've raised preflop and someone has called, and the board comes AA5, that's a perfect time to c-bet. As they've flat called after your raise, you are in the perfect position to represent a strong ace, while it is far more likely they are playing something like KQ, JT, etc

In comparison to your c-betting stats (I've only played 16.5k hands at 2NL 6-max but something to compare to) I've got an overall c-bet on the flop of 53%, and I c-bet 61% of the time on the button If anything I'd expect my c-bet to be higher than yours, as there will be fewer players in each hand.

What are your positional stats? Add in 3-bet stats (using the little wrench tool if you don't know how) and post a screenshot; there's loads of good info which can be analysed and help you improve your game

Thats for a great reply. Yes it appears that my overzealous c-betting could be a leak in my game. I have put together a strategy which I follow in the average situation. It is as follows:

When I have raised pre-flop and do not have at least a pair or an 8 or 9 outer after the flop, I c-bet 2/3pot against TWO others unless:

1) There are flush draws or a monotone flop and I have no matching suit,
2) I have no overcards,
3) Someone makes more that a minimum bet into me,
4) There are made straights possible with cards in the playing zone (9-A)

When I have raised pre-flop and do not have at least a pair or an 8 or 9 outer after the flop I c-bet 2/3pot against ONE other unless:

THREE of the above conditions apply.

I never c-bet into three apponants without a hand or an 8 or 9 outer as I beleive this to be loosing play 95% of the time. I would need a VERY strong read to do this!

Now, thinking about it logically lets say for the sake of argument that 70% of c-bets are against one apponant. I guess it stands to reason that tightening my heads up c-betting strategy is a good way forward?

Can you think of an addition to the four points above?

I have a vague idea the 70-80% c-betting is about right. I do feel that 60 would be a little low. I guess that most people I would be playing at 5-10NL would know that a player hits the flop around a third of the time and deviating too far away from this would be just asking to be played back at!

Anyhow...

EDIT: I have lost 4 buy-ins... (maybe donked off half of that) over the last 1000 hands so my W$SD isnt quite as solid as in the details sheet at the top of the page!
Yes sometimes its more BCD than ABC play!

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The only way to know if you're ready for 10NL is to try it. You don't have to move up until you're ready, which means both bankroll-wise and emotionally. But giving it a shot is a different matter.

Take $20 - or if you want to be more conservative, set aside the next $20 you win - and single-table 10NL. See how it goes. Repeat as many times as you like. If you're reasonably comfortable and you feel your game is okay at that level, fine.

When you do feel ready to move up, set yourself a stop-loss; e.g. if you lose say $50, then drop back down. This limits your exposure to $50.

And at either level, don't give your opponents too much credit. For example, most players at these levels have little or no idea of your c-bet frequency. And of those who do, some don't adjust accordingly. So you do want to watch which ones do adjust so you can change up against them. But the others? Keep pounding them until they make you stop. If you don't you're leaving money on the table.

I have no conditions for c-betting, and I find it works for me, as I vary it depending upon who I'm playing against in order not to be too rigid. I put the others on ranges depending on what hands I've seen them play and think they'll play, and on how often they'll call. C-betting at 2NL never works as much as at higher stakes - 4c is hardly a scary bet hehe, and many people will never lay it down. For example, someone quite happily called me 2 streets of pot bets with a gutshot and king high, so... In general, I find having rigid rules to stick to stops me going by instinct and using my reads. Obviously I'll place far more c-bets heads up, but it does vary quite a bit. Plus, I find mixing it up helps a lot - if I c-bet fold on dangerous boards every now and then, when someone raises my c-bet fold and I've got the nuts it's a lot harder for them to get away from, plus I can throw in the odd raise bluff I'll also vary my c-bet between half pot and 2/3 pot

Based on your positional stats, I'm not a full ring expert but I would still advise raising wider on the button. You're 3-bet is good I think, but I couldn't comment on anything else really.

you are playing your hand waaaay too much and not the villain. Why are you not using your hud? Moving up in limits and moving forward, is practice. You should be using your hud now and figure out what the stats mean and how to exploit your opponents.


Oh and if you are going to follow proper BRM you need $200 min to play 10nl.

i have been beating the game for 8.5BB/100 over the last 2 months, and the sample is bigger and i have a bigger bankroll and i still don't have the guts to try 10nl, maybe i am just a way bigger nit than you.

but, i say, if you have confidence in your game (which i seem to lack a bit) i say give it a stab, 1 table, if it seems you can't handle it, and you lose you 10$ drop back, and farm some more.

I would have to say that if I was beating 5NL for 8.5BB/100 long term... (I am guessing in your case over 50k hands) then staying at that level is just wasting time. I reckon that you are at the near maximum you can theoretically win and your continued improvements in play would be far better rewarded (in terms of $/100 hands) If you moved up. I am sure that you would make 5BB/100 hands as you are now with a good amount of headroom above you to improve.

Just a thought!

if you are beating a level at 8.5BB/100 than you are a god..how big is that hand sample? hopefully over 100K to give you an accurate idea of how your really running

In the last image; you're not adjusting for position.

Your VPIP and PFR are fine as totals; 15/13, but early position VPIP should be tiny compared with CO and button. Early position VPIP should be 6-8% or thereabouts, increasing so the button is 25%, or higher.

As for BRM, yeah, a couple of months and 10,000 hands is no reliable measurement, but on the other hand I don't see any reason to not "stake" yourself $20, give it a shot, but as soon as that $20 is gone, drop back down. And don't be afraid to take multiple shots like that. If you build a bigger bankroll, then the "stake" can be bigger, but even two buyins can give you a taste at least. All imo, obv