% All in preflop

luizmarinho

luizmarinho

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Hello all,

I'm starting to make a percentage of how many flips I won and loss (with good starting hands for sure) and I can see pockets have a little advantage against any high cards (like AK, AQ, etc) looks like obvious but have you guys done that also ? How many % you win or lost shoving all your chips to the middle ? Does really luck counts or is all about statistcs ?
 
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rhombus

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Hello all,

I'm starting to make a percentage of how many flips I won and loss (with good starting hands for sure) and I can see pockets have a little advantage against any high cards (like AK, AQ, etc) looks like obvious but have you guys done that also ? How many % you win or lost shoving all your chips to the middle ? Does really luck counts or is all about statistcs ?
sometimes you run good and sometimes bad but in the long term they to even out

common matchsups are: -

Pair against 2 overs is usually about 50/50 e.g. 22 vs AK
Pair against Pair 80/20 e.g. 55 vs 99
Pair against One over Card 70/30 eg 88 vs A7
Dominated Card 70/30 e.g. AK vs AQ

sometimes odds change abit usually due to them being suited or blocking outs like
QQ vs AK as the QQ blocks alot of the straights so its 56/44
 
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BullWink

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I think that the statistics are correct, and coin flips over the long run will even out so that you will win about 50%. You should choose when to do a coin flip to improve your win rate. For example, going all in will get many people to fold, but if they call you are in a coin flip. Coin flips are better if you have a big stack against a small stack, so that if you win it won't knock you out of tourney. I also do a lot of all-in coin flips near the start of tourny, especially freerolls. This way I either build my stack early or get knocked out and don't have to invest much time.
 
luizmarinho

luizmarinho

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I think that the statistics are correct, and coin flips over the long run will even out so that you will win about 50%. You should choose when to do a coin flip to improve your win rate. For example, going all in will get many people to fold, but if they call you are in a coin flip. Coin flips are better if you have a big stack against a small stack, so that if you win it won't knock you out of tourney. I also do a lot of all-in coin flips near the start of tourny, especially freerolls. This way I either build my stack early or get knocked out and don't have to invest much time.

I'm doing a statisc with my own coin flips, I try to avoid that but sometimes you cant, I mean I wont fold with KK, AK, and AA. But I can see that I win less than 30% of the flips, I think I'm more unlucky than normal haha :(
 
mar_dragan

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sometimes you run good and sometimes bad but in the long term they to even out

common matchsups are: -

Pair against 2 overs is usually about 50/50 e.g. 22 vs AK
Pair against Pair 80/20 e.g. 55 vs 99
Pair against One over Card 70/30 eg 88 vs A7
Dominated Card 70/30 e.g. AK vs AQ

sometimes odds change abit usually due to them being suited or blocking outs like
QQ vs AK as the QQ blocks alot of the straights so its 56/44

What is differents in par vs par and dominate card??
It must be same percentage.
 
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TryTo

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It seems sometimes that probability is often software-displaced to the worst hand in all-ins. For example, if there is A8 vs QQ - A8 wins in 50%, not in 28% as it must be. It happens constantly with me. Think it's profitable for rooms to help fishes and lower stronger players, to equalize them. They will get more rake if reg and fish play 10 matches with counting 6:4, than if reg wins a pair of times and fish leaves the game (and a poker at all may be). That's why better to try and win before showdown, without shoving.
 
BigCountryGB

BigCountryGB

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It seems sometimes that probability is often software-displaced to the worst hand in all-ins. For example, if there is A8 vs QQ - A8 wins in 50%, not in 28% as it must be. It happens constantly with me. Think it's profitable for rooms to help fishes and lower stronger players, to equalize them. They will get more rake if reg and fish play 10 matches with counting 6:4, than if reg wins a pair of times and fish leaves the game (and a poker at all may be). That's why better to try and win before showdown, without shoving.

How many hands have you recorded and analyzed to find that a particular poker room is rigging the game? I'm assuming it must be somewhere in the millions? Otherwise, I would say it's more likely an issue of perception. We all remember the bad beats much more often than hand we won where we were statistically expected to win.
 
luizmarinho

luizmarinho

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just means you're going to have a good run soon :)

Hope you correct :)


How many hands have you recorded and analyzed to find that a particular poker room is rigging the game? I'm assuming it must be somewhere in the millions? Otherwise, I would say it's more likely an issue of perception. We all remember the bad beats much more often than hand we won where we were statistically expected to win.

cant affirm but sometimes seems like its true...
 
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TryTo

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You may laugh, but I already used to say "buy" to tournament when it comes to all-in with my AA, KK, QQ or set on flop. One of lasts: I have 22, flop - 25T. Go all-in. Villain calls and has AJ. Guess what comes then. Off course KQ, what was 3%.
 
BigCountryGB

BigCountryGB

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You may laugh, but I already used to say "buy" to tournament when it comes to all-in with my AA, KK, QQ or set on flop. One of lasts: I have 22, flop - 25T. Go all-in. Villain calls and has AJ. Guess what comes then. Off course KQ, what was 3%.

If that is the case, then I'd recommend a change of strategy. You need to adjust to the game; whether it is how others are playingor how the poker room is run. Stop the all-ins with premium hands and push all-in with the long shot draws. I'd like to know how much your win rate increases with this strategy.
 
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