AA vs. QQ... Which hand would you rather have with this flop...???

Ok... in a heads up hand with a flop of Kd Qd 10d......

Which hand would you rather have Pocket Queens without a diamond or pocket Aces with the Ace of diamonds???


I messed around with these hands and this flop with an online odds calculator... I wanted to see which hand would win the best of 11 hands. One of these hands won 7 out of 11 times. Same flop every time, but I randomized the turn and the river each time.

After this thread gets going a little bit I will reveal the winning hand of my experiment.

I would take the pocket queens, you are slightly ahead and you have a draw to a full house as well, even if your opponent hits the flush, unless they hit the royal of course, but the set of queens is in a better situation at this point.

Like you said QQ is only a slight favorite... it's about 58% to 42%... thats basically a coin toss. While you are drawing for a full house or quads you would still have to dodge an Ace, a Jack, and any diamond. If running cards come out to make a straight (A, J... no diamonds) it would still only be a split pot.

I would take the pocket queens, I prefer a set over any draw any day. AA would be very unfortunate in that situation more likely than not the Queens have more of a chance of winning that hand.

QQ is the winning hand of every meaningful experiment.

Even though... the AA will win frequently too.

ye agree with most of you rather have the queens than be chasing that flush or straight

i will take the pocket Q , even if he hits the flush you will always have the draw for a full house , so i guess pocket Q is my choose.

Definitely the queens, but i wouldn't mind having aces for that flop either... except against queens. lol.

I think i would prefer having the QQ in this situation I have already flopped trips and have a shot at a boat or even quads only thing is that flush draw scares me

id rather have Jd 9d but ill go 4 the QQ get ur money in while ur best.

depends on position and pot size...depending on what i had to call id chase those outs with the aces

actually its close AA might be slight favorite... i know 12 outs is 45% but 14 with 2 cards to come might be just over or just under 50 and no you dont times it by 4 n e more once u get past 9 outs the math is slightly off doing it that way

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

8,910 games 0.005 secs 1,782,000 games/sec

Board: Kd Qd Td
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.323% 42.02% 00.30% 3744 27.00 { AcAd, AdAh, AdAs }
Hand 1: 57.677% 57.37% 00.30% 5112 27.00 { QcQh, QcQs, QhQs }

QQ

/thread

This question is impossible to answer without knowing the stack sizes and the amount of the flop bet. You may be behind with the AA, but depending on these other issues I mentioned, it might be well worth it to try to draw out and win your opponent's stack (assuming you knew exactly what your opponent had -- of course you wouldn't know that unless you saw his cards somehow).

I understand all the circumstantial aspects that come into play(pot odds, stack size, position, etc.) It was more of a hypothetical question, just to see what the majority would prefer. I am with most of you guys and I too would prefer to have QQ, being the slight favorite. However, when I randomized the the turn and river with this flop and those hands AA won 7 out of 11 times.

If neither player knew what the other was holding, as it commonly occurs in poker, they would both more likely than not be willing push on that flop. Its just one of those hands where both players are gonna get it all in

Sure, I guess with normal size stacks, that is likely. But if you had a huge stack, are you sure you would want to commit with either of those hands?

If I had a large stack and my opponent had a stack comparable to mine, let's say his stack represents 2/3 of my stack, it would make it a tough decision... But I don't think I could find it within myself to lay down either one of those hands. If his stack represents something like 10% of my stack then there would be no inner conflict there... INSTA-CALL!!!

QQ She wins, i could only tell you that i see more Q's then i do AA...

...Assuming your opponent pushes all in on you

I know that the QQ has the trips and is currently in a much better position... however I'd have to go with the AA. And I know that it's lunacy... but my reason is simple: There are still a lot of outs for the Aces, and I've had a really bad run lately with QQ!!!

Right or wrong.. I'm going with the bullets

Well with the way my Aces always gets cracked, I will stick with my QQ

I'll take the QQ's a set is easier to bet than a draw; even a strong draw with all the outs; you still don't have a winning hand.

yeah pretty tough decision fairly even but a made hand is always best to have cause you don't need to improve.

With the hands flipped over? QQ.

Too bad real poker is not like that at all.

Think of playing this in a 4-way pot, with a pre-flop raise. How happy are you now with the flop?

I prefer AJdd here...

But what do you wanna find out with this...

Same question would be AK vs 22.

Almost 50/50, so let the board make de result. It doesn't matter witch of the 2 you have...

QQ without a doubt - Bird in the hand is worth...

I read the part about the AA winning 7 of 11 and that does not change a thing in my mind. Try running it another 20 or 100 times and see what the result is. My educated guess (supported by other posts listing the odds), QQ prevails.

I personally rather have the QQ. I already have trips with the possibility of a full house or even possibly quad queens. I'd rather have the set FOR SURE than have a draw. QQ is slightly favored over the AA too so it's like an added bonus although it's roughly a coin flip. Both hands are all inable, but I would feel more comfortable with QQ.

(d)uuuuhhhhhh

yeah, i realize that 11 times isn't really a sufficient amount of times to run these hands against each other, or develop anything really concrete.
Believe me it crossed my mind while i was doing it i just didnt have the time to run it 50 or 100 times

for some reason im a qq fan dont know why

Good Lord.

Sometimes the response of seasoned players/forum members to posts like this one seems snarky or over-superior to me... and that is a negative about (poker) forums in general imho.

But it's understandable when so many threads like this one burn on and on long after the ANSWER TO THE QUESTION is SETTLED.

There are all kinds of fun hypothetical, gametype or strategy discussions we can have... and to some extent we have had. BUT,

I saw almost this exact same scenario about 2 weeks ago in a house tourney.

Me: 6k chips preflop, QhQs
Villian: 2k chips preflop, JcJh

25/50 blinds

I raise MP to 200. Villian reraises to 600. I call.

Flop: AcKcQc

I bet 600 (slightly less than half pot). His response was "I have to get it all in on this flop!". So he shoves, I call.

Queens held up.

I'll take the set in that situation anyday. If you get drawn out on, hey. You got your money in with the better hand and lost. That's poker.

What's that have to do with it? The question was which would you prefer. Bet sizing is everything. A set of Queens is only 57.66% to win. I can think of many situations where the money in the pot makes that a no-brainer, profitable call, over the long run.

I would prefer the Queens.
To get a real percentage which pair would win you have to do the randomizing a little more than 11 times....

You'll have to explain to me why I am not understanding you. I am not sure you are defending the play with the aces or the queens. But it doesn;t matter The ONLY "no-brainer, profitable call, over the long run" as you put it is the queens. The aces LOSE. Bet sizing doesn't matter to this question.

You are right we need more than 11 played scenarios to get an acurate result. But we can approximate the distribution of an average result easily without even playing out the hand once. Simple outs calculations will give you a close enough approximation to the answer.

The rule of two and four gets a little inaccurate at a point so a common adjustment is to subtract a percentage for every out over 7.

The guy holding the aces needs: An ace or jack, and any diamond but a queen. The turn and river gives two chances at 12 outs. (the jack is a little funny, as it give the aces a straight and the queens two pair with a FH redraw, but thats so remote we can ignore it)

(Outs * #of cards to come * 2%) - 1 * (outs-7) = %chance

(12 * 2 * 2) - 5 = 48-5 = 42%

Pretty much the same number Poker Stove comes up with.