5-7 suited calls all in post flop

pcgnome

pcgnome

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 2, 2010
Total posts
2,054
Awards
1
Chips
9
I was playing a live tourney today, and I decided to call with 5d-7d, and the flop comes Qd-Jd-5c. The guy to my right goes all in, and I call. He has K-9o, and that gives him 10 outs against my pair of fives. I checked this out on poker stove, and I have %72.5 equity in this hand. Obviously this was a good call even if I had no idea what he had. However, he still has about a %40 chance to outdraw me on the turn or the river. It wasn't that horrible a push when you think about it, yet the equity is almost 3-1 against him.
When you find yourself in a similar situation where you have 10 outs it doesn't seem so bad, but how do you know that your hand equity is awful without any software to back you up?
 
Four Dogs

Four Dogs

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 13, 2005
Total posts
4,298
Awards
1
Chips
17
pcgnome said:
I was playing a live tourney today, and I decided to call with 5d-7d, and the flop comes Qd-Jd-5c. The guy to my right goes all in, and I call. He has K-9o, and that gives him 10 outs against my pair of fives. I checked this out on poker stove, and I have %72.5 equity in this hand. Obviously this was a good call even if I had no idea what he had. However, he still has about a %40 chance to outdraw me on the turn or the river. It wasn't that horrible a push when you think about it, yet the equity is almost 3-1 against him.
When you find yourself in a similar situation where you have 10 outs it doesn't seem so bad, but how do you know that your hand equity is awful without any software to back you up?
Click to expand...
You don't need software, you can do it in your head. It's easy. In the case above you have 9 clean outs meaning if a diamond comes you'll probably have the best hand. To calculate all-in equity with 2 cards to come you just multiply your outs by 4. In this case you have about 36%+/-. You might have more, you could improve with a 5 for trips or a 7 for two pair, that's another 5 outs making you're equity as much as 56%+/-. This is called the rule of 4. It's not exact but it's close enough. BTW you can do it with 1 card to come as well simply by multiplying your outs by 2 instead of 4.
 
B

bojax

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 5, 2014
Total posts
29
Chips
0
I think it's impossible to figure out your equity on that flop in your head. You just gotta make an educated guess based on your opponent's range and your experience with equity calculators. Luckily, you ran into a hand that's probably near the bottom of your opponent's range this time.
 
pcgnome

pcgnome

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 2, 2010
Total posts
2,054
Awards
1
Chips
9
Four Dogs said:
You don't need software, you can do it in your head. It's easy. In the case above you have 9 clean outs meaning if a diamond comes you'll probably have the best hand. To calculate all-in equity with 2 cards to come you just multiply your outs by 4. In this case you have about 36%+/-. You might have more, you could improve with a 5 for trips or a 7 for two pair, that's another 5 outs making you're equity as much as 56%+/-. This is called the rule of 4. It's not exact but it's close enough. BTW you can do it with 1 card to come as well simply by multiplying your outs by 2 instead of 4.
Click to expand...

yes... I made the decision to call with a pair of fives and a flush draw. it's an easy decision, but winning at poker is about making hard decisions the right way. I've already used the 4X rule to figure that the other guy has 10 outs for about a 40% chance to catch an out post flop.
I don't think its such a bad call, but equity wise he is behind almost 3-1. If you were in his shoes you would have to also put in as other factors to make a good decision. What else is out there that gives him such horrible equity?
I made an easy call, and this thread is about learning. What would you be considering if you were in his shoes? Not mine.
 
Four Dogs

Four Dogs

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 13, 2005
Total posts
4,298
Awards
1
Chips
17
pcgnome said:
yes... I made the decision to call with a pair of fives and a flush draw. it's an easy decision, but winning at poker is about making hard decisions the right way. I've already used the 4X rule to figure that the other guy has 10 outs for about a 40% chance to catch an out post flop.
I don't think its such a bad call, but equity wise he is behind almost 3-1. If you were in his shoes you would have to also put in as other factors to make a good decision. What else is out there that gives him such horrible equity?
I made an easy call, and this thread is about learning. What would you be considering if you were in his shoes? Not mine.
Click to expand...
Because he doesn't have 10 outs he only has 7. He needs a King, Ten or Nine to improve but you have the diamonds blocked with your flush draw. There are only 2 Kings, 2 Nines and 3 Tens that can help him.

This is a pretty common play in a tournament especially when the blinds get big. His plan was probably to raise shove any non Ace flop. It's not a horrible play and he'll often get away with it, even when the opponent should call, like in your case.
 
B

Ben_Dover

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 4, 2008
Total posts
34
Chips
0
He probably expected you to think he has at least a pair. In that case, if he did have top pair with a Queen then run your poker stove again. Your equity plummets to at best 34% with the flush draw. Probably worse.
 
Last edited:
B

Ben_Dover

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 4, 2008
Total posts
34
Chips
0
Also a key factor: how much was the all-in call?

Let's say you had some heavy action pre-flop, or he was short-stacked. The size of the pot dramatically impacts your break-even point. If you only had to call full-pot then you only need 33% equity anyway.
 
Arjonius

Arjonius

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Jun 8, 2005
Total posts
3,167
Chips
0
Assessing your odds / equity post-facto vs the opponent's actual hand isn't the same as doing so at your turn to act vs his assumed range. The latter is what you had to do. The former is a mathematical exercise that you shouldn't use to justify what you decided.

Also, you don't mention if there was anyone still to act after you, which isn't the same situation as when you're closing the action and thus know you only have to beat the all-in.
 
Top