The 2-4 rule

Hello everyone!
I was wondering if anyone who knows about the 2-4 rule can tell me if it's accurate. Do you x by 4 after the flop and then x by 2 after the turn? All comments are greatly appreciated! Thanks!
-Brian

Take the number of outs you have and multiply by 2 to get the approximate percentage of hitting it with 1 card to come, multiply by 4 with 2 cards to come. For example: you hold a flush draw (9 outs), 2*9=18 so you have about 18% to hit it on the next card, or 4*9=36% to hit it on either turn or river. The real odds are 19% and 35% respectively, but this negligible error is small price to pay for fast estimates. And you don’t have to memorize a table.

d44ve pretty much summed it up perfectly. It isn't a 100% accurate but is pretty close. This little bit of inaccuracy and pretty much be ignored considering you don't have 100% accurate information to go on in the first place.

Note that the 2 and 4 rule is the odds that you will make the hand. Also, it gets a little off with the more outs you have. Like the odds of hitting when you have an open-ended straight flush is 55% or so, but the rule would be 4*15= 60%.

In poker we rarely need to get the exact percentage, being off by a percent or two is not that big of a deal. Soloman's rule is a quick and easy way to get your chance of hitting, but realize that on the flop when you multiply your outs by 4.. you are getting the chance to hit on the next two cards,like if you were gonna call an allin or go allin. if there is gonna be more betting than you need to take that into consideration. Also if you are playing no limit than look into implied odds if you haven't already.

Here is an odds chart.. if you look at Soloman's rule and than compare those numbers to this chart of the actual percentages, than you will see it is not too far off..

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it's quite accurate up to when we have 9outs, the more outs = less accurate

You can make a simple calculation to combat this though... you subtract the # of additional outs from your final answer (< sounds confusing, lol.. I'll post a couple of examples).

For 15outs (4 x 15) - (15 - 9) = 60 - 6 = 54%

for 13outs (4 x 13) - (13 - 9) = 52 - 4 = 48%

Is there a 2-4-6-8-10 rule?

1 hole card, 6 x 3 outs (about 18%) to make a pair on the flop?

1 hole card, 10 x 3 outs (about 30%) to make a pair to the river?

Seems about right.

Phil Gorden has a video explaining this that is easy to find online. Kara Scott just did one recently as well.

Just make sure you aren't double counting your cards - ie if you have 9 heart outs for a flush and have 4 outs to make a straight don't count the heart twice (you now only have 3 outs to make the st8). I know it's obvious but I see people making that mistake.

If There was a "like" button I would've liked this!But there isn't so I'm gonna say it: "I like this!"

that is true, i forgot about this.. it's still usually close enough for me without doing all the extra math tho.. but i remember reading that also at some point

this is also known as the speed/ sucker rule. It is always best to teach ones self how to do the complex math of poker without shortcuts and practice it because in the future when you are trying to calculate your fold equity in a threeway pot with a K high flush draw the math can get pretty complex. If you plan on playing for entertainment or make a living at micro, then sure, use the 2-4 rule and forget everything I just said. Otherwise, it's best to try to learn the simple/ basic algebra that is involved in poker that will help you to calculate more complex situations in the future. Most poker books have these simple equations in them, or you can always back order Bluff magazine because it has multiple articles written by the pro's about poker algebra. Hope this helps you. Good luck in your future poker endeavors and remember, if you start out learning simple things you will end up being a simple poker player, and complexity is the key to success in today's poker arena.

Generally the x4 after the flop for two cards to come is quite accurate, but the 2x rule is usually out by 1 or two % so you can do what is called the 2+1 rule and just add 1%. I prefer just to memorise the odds of each number of outs tho.

Hello Turtelliusshellius,
I really appreciate your input about the 2-4 rule and looking into the bluff magazine or poker books. You sound like a smart person. Would you happen to know what poker books are good? I'm trying to learn all i can and i'm like a sponge right now when it comes to poker. My friends back home are used to "basement poker" and have no idea what i put into learning and studying poker. They showed this girl last week on Poker After Dark who is 24, and never graduated high school and has been playing poker ever since. She won several tourny's and has over 3 million in prize money. This makes me think that i have a shot too. Thanks again!
-Brian