25$ NL 6max: Thin Value from Super Calling Station

Woo, my first analysis with stats. Not like we need them. The real reads are in the notes:

Reads on Villain (46 hands):
Stats: 70/20/0.9
Fold to C-bet % = 20%

Station. Can't fold an TPNK on a 4 flush board.
Cannot fold A6 on the river to huge
overbet.

I hit a gutshot on the river and bet ~20$ into a 16$ pot and got called by A6 on an AK48J board. I had been semi-bluffing with the gutshot & FD before I knew he was a station.

My image is prolly laggy/bluffy since he caught me semi-bluffing.


Seat 4: zapa2525 ( $40.24 USD )
Seat 6: Hero ( $78.27 USD )
zapa2525 posts small blind [$0.10 USD].
Hero posts big blind [$0.25 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ ]
mixednut425 calls [$0.25 USD]
zapa2525 calls [$0.15 USD]
Hero checks
** Dealing Flop ** [ ]
zapa2525 checks
Hero bets [$0.60 USD]
mixednut425 folds
zapa2525 calls [$0.60 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ ]
zapa2525 checks
Hero bets [$1.00 USD]
zapa2525 calls [$1.00 USD]
** Dealing River ** [ ]
zapa2525 checks
Hero....


Thoughts on my line so far? Can we bet this river for value?

2 pair is usually good against these guys, but that's quite a dryish flop. I still probably bet though, coz he looks you up with a lot of A high hands, it's close though. Probably 1/2 pot this.

what can we get value from? Is he seriously calling with TT- or A high here?

TT or less, I'm certain. I'm not 100% sure about the ace high hands.

on the turn, you have a $1.95 pot and you bet $1 into it. i think he is really just being a station, is trying to trap you, or is on a draw. you've gotta really be thinking though, what could he POSSIBLY be calling with that you beat? he called his small blind, so that doesnt say much for the strength of his hand, making a 2 likely, a Jrag likely, or a Qrag likely, don't think he would be calling a pocket pair preflop. 2 beats you, Qrag beats you, Jrag is split pot, you DO beat low PP, but i just dont see that being as likely cause PP are much rarer. straight draw is also a possibility though also unlikely.

he doesnt seem aggressive enough to bet on the river with anything worse than a Q including missed draws (maybe not even a Qrag), so i'd probably just check fold this one. exploit his station tendencies at a later time, and if he does have that pocket pair, you're still winning a pot.

Ihatecowboys said:

so i'd probably just check fold this one

Click to expand...

We're in position, he's already checked.

And as far as getting his money at a later time, stations don't tend to hold onto their cash for very long.

I'd probably bet it. you will get called by many worse hands.

beware though if he goes nuts on a reraise... that's often a deuce or something big.

oh didnt read it closely, but i dont see exactly what you are trying to get called with it. no raise pre flop 3 handed and he does raise 20% of the time, you would think that his PFR range would include all pocket pairs and aces with those numbers

K, so I decided to stove this...

If he's calling with the bottom 50% of his 70% range preflop, and he's calling with any gutshot postflop, his range looks something like this:

55-22,A3s-A2s,K2s,Q8s-Q2s,J8s-J2s,T8s,T2s,98s,A8o-A2o,K9o,K2o,Q9o-Q3o,J9o-J5o,T8o,98o

However, this is a pretty small range for him. He only folds like 20% of flops, but this range has him folding about half his range. So it could be even wider than this.

Jd9d - 63%
Villain's Massive Range - 37%

So on the flop its a pretty clear bet. The 2s on the turn makes him almost flipping with me:

Jd9d - 54%
Villain's Massive Range - 46%

And the river is roughly the same, 55:45.

The trick is, I'm not sure if I get called by his whole range on the river, since all those gutshots & runner runner flushes missed.

So yeah, I chickened out, and checked behind.

** Dealing River ** [ ]
zapa2525 checks
Hero checks
zapa2525 shows [ ]
Hero shows [ ]
Hero wins $3.81 USD from main pot

Not sure if he was planning on calling us with ace high, but in hindsight I almost think I could've bet this one. Still not sure.

It's definitely close, but I'd lean towards checking behind as well. If our J wasnt counterfeited and he could call with a worse J, I'd say it's definitely a bet.