$200 NLHE Full Ring: 80NL Live - 99 on a QT439 board

6

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80NL live cash game at my local casino with $1/$2 blinds and 7 players (since 2 were sitting out). Hero has $90 on the table and everyone else has between $100 and $200.

Hero (BB) is dealt 9h 9c
SB posts $1
Hero (BB) posts $2
UTG calls $2
UTG+1 and UTG+2 are sitting out
MP calls $2
HJ folds
CO calls $2
BTN calls $2
SB calls $2
Hero checks

$12 in pot
Flop shows Qh Tc 4d

SB checks
Hero (BB) checks
UTG checks
MP bets $5
CO folds
BTN calls $5
SB calls $5
Hero calls $5
UTG folds

$32 in pot
Turn shows 3h

SB checks
Hero (BB) checks
MP bets $10
BTN calls $10
SB folds
Hero (BB) calls $10

$62 in pot
Hero has $73 left behind
River shows 9d

Hero bets $30
MP asks "how much do you have left?"
Hero replies "43 bucks"
MP raises to $73
BTN raises to $150 and is all-in
Hero calls all-in for $73 total
MP calls for $150 total

My reasoning was:
This was a very loose table and players would call with almost anything because they wanted to see a cheap flop. I thought that with 99, I should go set-mining, so I chose to check rather than raise in the hopes of saving money if I don't hit my set. Plus I could disguise the fact that I had a good hand by simply checking on the big blind, whereas raising would give away that I have something good.

When the flop came out, I was initially ready to check-fold, but the bet was so low and there was so much value that I chose to call in the hopes of hitting a set or a straight on the turn or river.

When the turn came out, I applied the same logic. The bet was so small that I thought I should hope for my set on the river.

When the river card came out, I made a value bet which I thought would get called by either top pair or 2 pairs. There was no flush possibility and the only straight consisted of a JK, which I assumed someone would have raised preflop.

The guy who asked me "how much do you have left?" looked like a thug. He was wearing a black jacket, had jewelry on and would sometimes flirt with the female dealers. I assumed that he was a complete moron (just by the way he looked and acted) and was only trying to act tough and intimidate me into folding, so I wasn't planning to fold to his bet.

I was more worried when the other villain bet over the top of him, but I thought he might just have 2 pairs or a lower set and was trying to extract value from that. I knew it was possible that he had the straight, but I figured that there was too much value at stake, so I hesitantly made the call...

Is my reasoning invalid? What did I do wrong? What should I have done differently?
 
ConDeck

ConDeck

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2 options pre, squeeze for $15, your stack size actually assists you here as it looks like your ready to play for stacks while actually leaving you enough to fold future streets. Flat call as you say to set mine.

Fold flop always. Against this many players and oop just never profitable. Even when you hit your set or straight board far to coordinated your hardly ever good against this many players, especially their limp range.

Can I ask why your always so shallow?

If you want to discuss these spots in further detail, or others feel free pm me.
 
6

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The problem was that the guys on my table would probably not have folded to a $15 raise. They were calling stations and would sometimes do very unpredictable things like limping in with AA or KK. I would've had to have raised to at least $20+ if I wanted some folds, of which case I would've been pot-committed and could've lost to a higher pair or a broadway combination that hits on the flop.

As for the image, surely you understand what I mean. I'm not trying to sound shallow, but sometimes you look at a poker player and they just don't give off an intelligent vibe. I mean, poker is all about making generalisations about your opponents, stereotyping them and categorising them to give yourself the best advantage. That's what reading your opponents is all about, and this was my read of him.

It was hard to put someone on a JK or a J8. A J8 would've meant calling with a gut shot and a JK would've meant an open-ender. I thought that it would be definitely possible that someone had that, although it was also possible that they didn't and there was so much value to be won that I thought the pot odds would be in my favour. I was planning to check/fold the river if the 9 didn't come up.
 
ConDeck

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$200 NLHE Full Ring: 80NL Live - 99 on a QT439 board

If you NEVER get folds to a squeeze checking is correct play, unless opp are very passive post flop and a c bet would take it down a large percentage of the time. On the flop pitch and wait for a better spot.

As to them sometimes limping AA and KK being a reason not to squeeze this is irrelevant, as most of the time they won't and you can fold to a 4bet. Squeezing doesn't have to work every time... Just enough to be profitable long term.

JK and J8 are definitely possible hands here, but my point is that you are going to hit your straight or set a small percentage of the time, And some of these times you are still going to lose, and a significantly increased amount at that, and you can't guarantee that when you make it you will win a significant sized pot. Therefore just fold and wait for a better spot, you have a shallow stack so it is important not to bleed chips in unnecessary spots and minimise losses, maximising profits when you flop hard!

Calling flop and turn here is a big leak you need to close.
 
6

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Thanks for your analysis. I feel like I played this hand badly, I was just trying to pin-point exactly where I went wrong. So it was mostly my check-call on the flop and turn that I screwed up. I should've check-folded there instead.

It seems like a case of reverse implied odds. Although I did have implied odds for hitting my set, the 9 caused someone with a JK or J8 to hit their straight, so it was actually a really bad river card for me that disguised itself as good.

And yeah, I feel like squeezing might've been better than set-mining here. If I'd raised to $20 preflop, got 1 or 2 callers, then made a $20 C-bet and check-folded after that, I could've saved most of my chips.
 
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ConDeck

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Correct check fold here against the type of players you describe.

Preflop, at a different table with that many limpers I'm tempted to squeeze, a lot of recreational players just want see flops as cheap as possible, make it 15 here and most fold, maybe on call that folds to a C bet a bunch... So can be very profitable, but as you describe calling fine.

Reverse implied odds is correct yes, I was unsure as to the extent of your understanding of the game so I tried to put it in lay terms to be safe :)
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Wtf stop trolling us, no one is this bad.
 
6

6bet me

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Wtf stop trolling us, no one is this bad.

If you have nothing useful to contribute, then don't post at all. I've explained my reasoning behind everything I did. Either criticise in a constructive manner or don't criticise at all.
 
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