100nl 6max JJ in 3bet pot

ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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First hand at the table, no reads.

Is he bluffing enough to call down here?

Thoughts on whole postflop line?

party poker, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

MP: $96.50 (96.5 bb)
CO: $125.40 (125.4 bb)
BTN: $76 (76 bb)
SB: $110.10 (110.1 bb)
Hero (BB): $100 (100 bb)
UTG: $89.25 (89.3 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BB with J
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J
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UTG folds, MP raises to $3, 3 folds, Hero raises to $10.50, MP calls $7.50

Flop: ($21.50) 8
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Q
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Q
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(2 players)
Hero checks, MP checks

Turn: ($21.50) 6
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(2 players)
Hero bets $14, MP raises to $44, Hero calls $30

River: ($109.50) 9
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(2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $42 and is all-in, Hero calls $42
 
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bw07507

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I think that I am betting this flop against most villains OoP. What are you trying to accomplish by checking this flop? If its to induce bluffs by villain, then I think you have to call his river all in. Also, on the river you are getting better than 3:1 and I think this is a smaller pair that decided to turn his hand into a bluff enough to call this.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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I think this hand plays itself after you check the flop & bet the turn. I like a flop bet as well tho.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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If we bet flop and he calls, where do we stand? What do we do on an ace/king turn? What about another brick?
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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If we bet flop and he calls, where do we stand?
I believe we're still ahead most of the time. Villain is probably calling our 3-bet with AQ+, 88+, maybe some other random stuff. If we c-bet this flop for say... $13, I think we'll get calls from most of the weaker pairs.

If a blank hits, I'd check call down. If an A or K hits, we hate life. But I think AK is probably jamming pre, or bluff-raising flop most of the time at these limits rather than floating. But I don't play 50c-1$ so I have nfc.
 
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switch0723

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I like your entire line, including checking flop

although i feel we have to fold the river, once we have called the turn, a standard villain will surely know that we are unlikely to fold to any river bet since he has basically no FE. Villain is expecting us to check/call this river hence why they have shoved for maximum value imo

So basically against an unknown i play it exactly the same way but fold river expecting a minimum of a,q

I know we are getting like a ton of numbers:1 odds to call the bet, but we are very very rarely ahead imo since if a villain was going to bluff, surely they bet flop and not raise turn, it makes no sense to bluff raise that turn

(Also remember i suck at 6max so take with a pinch of salt)

Edit: I just saw the other thread with results, and villain is basically bluffing his hand whic his really strange to do, but meh i still think its a fold against an unknown who is very rarely bluffing this spot
 
BelgoSuisse

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Too good a price to fold river, IMO.

Not sure i really like betting the turn. you may be inducing more bluffs by checking twice. But overall i do like the line
 
Cowboy8112

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I dont think he was bluffing (until the river) as much as feeling you out. My guess is.....you bet post flop he folds like a cot
 
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switch0723

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Too good a price to fold river, IMO.

Not sure i really like betting the turn. you may be inducing more bluffs by checking twice. But overall i do like the line

we are only getting about 3.5:1 (quick calculation of odds), do you really think villain is bluffing >20% of the time here which they need to do for this to be profitable??
 
F Paulsson

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As a point of interest, if he just called the turn would you have bet a brick river?

Now, generally speaking I agree with Switch. If this vs me, there's no hand in my range that you beat. Very few decent or semi-decent players will attempt to bluff a player they have no history on. And his line looks sooo much like a queen (QJ ,KQ and AQ are all in a typical player's hijack opening range) or a set. So we have no particular reason to think that a typical player bluffs. A typical player will have it very often.

But the real trick here is that we don't know that this is a typical player, and since not too long ago, I've started being very careful about folding to aggression against unknown, and it's because of this:

If you allow me to make up some numbers, I'm going to say that about 5% of players at 6-max are wild and will commonly do this with nothing. I don't know if you think that sounds high or not, but I think it sounds a bit likely.

95% of players will have it, when they play this way. Of course, the wild players can have it, too (and will play the same way) but we'll factor that in as well.

So the question is: when he raises the turn and pushes the river, how likely is he to be a wild player?

(Feel free to formulate a guess before reading on)

We need some more numbers to be able to figure this out, so we'll invent some more likely figures:

A typical - non maniac - player will have an opening range of about 15% in the hijack, in my experience. If we further trim it down based on what he might call with (and I'm relaxing it slightly because the average player is looser than they should be) I get maybe 10% of all hands. The monsters - that fit the bill for a typical player - are AQ, KQo, KQs, QJs, 88 and 66. That's 30% of his opening range (thanks, PokerStove!).

A maniac player will open maybe 50% of his range in this cut-off, will call a 3-bet with all of them, and will play the monsters the same way, but also bluff, say, half the time. Remember, we're talking about an elusive 5% of the poker population. So the maniacs will actually make this play with ~25% of their range.

(Yes, I'm going somewhere with this)

So what will happen if we put together 10 000 random players and 10 000 random deals?

Well, 9500 of them will be "typical" in the sense that they only do this with their monsters. Of the 9 500 typical players, only 15% will even open, because only that many of them had strong enough hands. But it gets even more narrow, because only 10% of the original 9 500 felt they had a strong enough hand to call a 3-bet. And of these, we know that 30% actually had a monster. So 30% of 10% of 9 500, is 30% of 950 players, or about 300 players.

Now we look at the maniacs:

50% of them thought they had a fun enough hand to open with. Their range is "narrowed" (I use the word loosely) when they raise, to be about half of their trash and the remaining monsters. Their remaining monsters is about 15% of their hands. The same reasoning gives that out of the original 500 maniacs, 250 of them stuck with us to the turn, and 125 of them bet this way. Of these 125, they will actually have it 15% of the time, making the total number of maniacs that we beat ~105.

So when we see an action like this, what is the likelyhood that our unknown player is a maniac and is bluffing?

Well, out of 10k players, and 10k random deals, we have 300 solid players with real hands, and 105 maniacs with trash.

... Given these numbers, about 30%. No, 25%!

If solid players sometimes bluff - even if it's rarely - it's closing in on a call.

... and this is why I don't like folding to unknowns in these spots. Thanks, Mathematics of Poker.
 
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F Paulsson

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Eeek! 105 out of 300 is actually more like 25%, not 30%. Sorries!
 
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bw07507

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Very informative post as always FP. Interesting stuff, when I first started reading thought you were going to recommend folding based on the only 5% of players being wild (which I actually think is more than 5% tbh). Glad I kept reading. Very good stuff.
 
NineLions

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A typical - non maniac - player will have an opening range of about 15% in the hijack, in my experience. If we further trim it down based on what he might call with (and I'm relaxing it slightly because the average player is looser than they should be) I get maybe 10% of all hands.

So you're expecting 15% opening:

77+,A7s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KTo+

And 10% calling:

77+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,AJo+,KQo

The opening seems a bit tight to me, and the calling a bit loose, but maybe that's just my guessing? Or me projecting myself into the opponent's shoes.

I guess we could run sensitivity analysis all the way through but it sounds like you've run this before in other hands and come to similar conclusions. I know that I tend to play conservative against an unknown but it seems like I'm doing that too often.

Thanks FP.
 
F Paulsson

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So you're expecting 15% opening:

77+,A7s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KTo+

And 10% calling:

77+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,AJo+,KQo

Well, I just axed together something, and I wasn't very careful about these two ranges specifically, they (for decent villain) barely matter at all, because the important thing is the number of hands in a decent player's range that beat us, not what he opens or calls with. And that's about 4% of hands, regardless of what he calls our 3-bet with.

My opening range from the hijack is around 15%, but it's not the same 15% that Stove gives you, since I play all pairs: 22+, A9s+, KTs+, 87s, 98s, T9s, JTs, QTs+, KQ, ATo+.

(As a sidenote, when I have a few more hands to look at, I'm going to re-examine the suited connectors. I'm not sure they're profitable for me.)
 
Chris_TC

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In general, when I sit with JJ on a flop like that in a 3-bet pot, I'm very willing to stack off.
My standard would be to bet the flop against an unknown because he can call with a very wide range including Ax. A fair number of players will also bluff-raise your c-bet in that spot. If we check the flop, it should probably be with the intention of inducing a turn bluff.

Because of this, I would bet the turn smaller, it can be something totally fishy like $9 (he is an unknown after all). The reason being bet size to stack ratios. As played, the bet is $44 which is pot commiting for both of you.
Once he makes it $44, you can't really expect him to bluff the river because HE can't expect you to fold. So instead of giving a free card I'd just shove the turn and hope he has something like 99, TT, A8, maybe 78ss or similar.

Oh, results plz?
 
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feitr

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yea i can't see the river ever being a bluff, seeing as most bluffs here will c/f since villain has to expect 0 fe on the river. i can't even see a maniac really shove the river here, and a maniac would rarely ever take this line (bet flop, shove turn would be much more likely).

if you check flop, i like a c/c on both turn and river. Betting the turn makes absolutely no sense. villain's check behind on the flop doesn't really tell you anything about his/her range and the whole wa/wb situation still stands. the only reason you can really be betting the turn here is to protect against an a/k falling on the river or trying to get value from 77/99/TT type of hands, which doesn't really compare to you getting c/r and committed to the pot imo. I just don't see you getting much protection from overcards (especially since villain probably only has one overcard if any, so it isn't like you need protection), or value from smaller pps to justify a turn bet here. You'll probably get more value by c/cing turn/river from bluffs.
 
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