$10 NLHE Full Ring: QQ on great board maybe in trouble

W

watchtowel

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Villain seems solid over 120 hands. we are quite deep but the only hands I am worried about are like a8 or 22. He could be doing this with 99-jj I think. The other thing is that he isn't a donk so what hand does he put me on? Probably obvious I have JJ+


pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($10.59)
Hero (UTG) ($19.04)
UTG+1 ($10.20)
MP1 ($12.80)
MP2 ($8.46)
MP3 ($11.30)
CO ($3.80)
Button ($8.55)
SB ($10.56)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q
heart.gif
, Q
diamond.gif

Hero bets $0.40, 1 fold, MP1 calls $0.40, 6 folds

Flop: ($0.95) 2
diamond.gif
, 8
heart.gif
, 8
diamond.gif
(2 players)
Hero bets $0.72, MP1 raises to $2.10, Hero raises to $5.16, MP1 raises to $12.40 (All-In), Hero calls $7.24

Turn: ($25.75) 3
club.gif
(2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($25.75) K
diamond.gif
(2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $25.75 | Rake: $1.28
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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Well he doesn't have an 8 if he's solid. So 99-JJ or 22 for made hands and maybe AT+dd hands. Basically you crush that range.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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[10:42:11 PM] Brandon Gomez: hey
[10:42:50 PM] Taylor Lackie: hey whats up
[10:43:50 PM] Brandon Gomez: do you have a sec to check out this hand for me
[10:44:07 PM] Taylor Lackie: ya shoot
[10:44:11 PM] Brandon Gomez: https://www.cardschat.com/forum/cash-game-hand-analysis-50/10-nlhe-full-ring-qq-great-199648/
[10:44:29 PM] Brandon Gomez: if we're 100bbs deep, and villain is a good reg, why do we 3bet
[10:44:46 PM] Brandon Gomez: (in the hand we're 200bb deep which changes things)
[10:45:23 PM] Brandon Gomez: well not 200 effective i guess but deeper than 100
[10:46:36 PM] Taylor Lackie: ya i think 3betting/stacking flop vs a reg is pretty bad, unless he's really bad himself and stacks JJ and 88 and stuff
[10:46:40 PM] Taylor Lackie: sorry 77
[10:47:00 PM] Brandon Gomez: so what would the best line be
[10:47:06 PM] Brandon Gomez: call the raise and donk turn?
[10:47:11 PM] Brandon Gomez: if its not a heart
[10:47:20 PM] Brandon Gomez: i mean diamond
[10:47:24 PM] Taylor Lackie: well why would we flat flop instead of 3betting?
[10:47:42 PM] Brandon Gomez: if we 3bet then he folds his semibluffs
[10:48:01 PM] Taylor Lackie: you think he raise/folds any diamonds?
[10:48:23 PM] Brandon Gomez: Id think so
[10:48:30 PM] Taylor Lackie: i mean a really retarded reg, maybe, but why raise an XXdd hand that you're not willing to stack in the first place?
[10:48:47 PM] Taylor Lackie: basically a good reg shouldn't be folding any semibluff (except a backdoor) once we 3bet flop
[10:48:59 PM] Brandon Gomez: wow really?
[10:49:04 PM] Taylor Lackie: well think about it
[10:49:08 PM] Taylor Lackie: we flat AJd IP
[10:49:14 PM] Taylor Lackie: we decide to raise to stack worse draws
[10:49:16 PM] Taylor Lackie: now villain 3bets
[10:49:17 PM] Taylor Lackie: why would we ever fold
[10:49:41 PM] Brandon Gomez: i thought we raise to fold out better hands and to set up stacks for when we hit
[10:50:16 PM] Taylor Lackie: better hands rarely fold. maybe 22-77 or whatever but rarely
[10:50:30 PM] Brandon Gomez: thats true
[10:50:31 PM] Taylor Lackie: i mean that's the essence of semibluffing, to fold better, but in this spot i dont think it works
[10:50:42 PM] Taylor Lackie: i think it'd mostly be just to stack worse draws/to induce
[10:50:43 PM] Brandon Gomez: youre right i was thinking in genereal
[10:50:53 PM] Taylor Lackie: i'm not saying i raise flop with AJd either, just saying if I were the type to do so, I wouldn't fold to a 3bet
[10:51:41 PM] Brandon Gomez: so if i put him on a range with lots of semibluffs then it should be ok to 3bet/call
[10:51:55 PM] Taylor Lackie: yes
[10:52:20 PM] Brandon Gomez: because i guess thats what im thinking his range would be if we were 100bb deep
[10:52:29 PM] Brandon Gomez: and 22
[10:52:33 PM] Taylor Lackie: sure
[10:52:35 PM] Brandon Gomez: and sometimes 99-jj
[10:52:47 PM] Taylor Lackie: good reg should never do that, but maybe a bad one, sure
[10:52:50 PM] Brandon Gomez: yea
[10:53:07 PM] Brandon Gomez: but you said that itd be bad to 3bet/call here
[10:53:09 PM] Brandon Gomez: why
[10:53:42 PM] Taylor Lackie: because, as per your assumption that villain is a GOOD reg, then he shouldn't really be raising any diamonds here, just flatting for the most part
[10:54:12 PM] Taylor Lackie: i'd expect a lot more random bluffs and backdoor semibluffs, so I'd still call and let him induce, but I think stacking flop is just a little light
[10:54:53 PM] Brandon Gomez: then what happens when a diamond comes on the turn
[10:55:40 PM] Taylor Lackie: assuming the same range, we c/c pretty happily i'd think. he doesn't have diamonds in his range, we have a backdoor, also a blocker, and his range for betting the turn is then full houses+bluffs, very polarized.
[10:56:32 PM] Brandon Gomez: yeah so i guess we're just c/c a non diamond river then too
[10:56:43 PM] Taylor Lackie: well only if we think he'll bluff it
[10:56:57 PM] Taylor Lackie: i generally think people go for 2 barrels and shut down a blank river
[10:57:09 PM] Taylor Lackie: since your range is basically slowplayed monsters+pairs with a diamond which tend not to fold
[10:57:36 PM] Brandon Gomez: yeah c/f makes more sense
[10:58:04 PM] Brandon Gomez: if he doesn't bluff rivers often enough
[10:58:09 PM] Taylor Lackie: exactly
[10:58:23 PM] Taylor Lackie: its very rare to see even the craziest just go for 3 street bluffs here
[10:58:33 PM] Taylor Lackie: or obv value bet worse
[10:58:39 PM] Brandon Gomez: yeah
 
W

watchtowel

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Wow very insightful Chuckts. I thought stacking here would be standard if 100bb. Deep I thought was the only thing that changed that. I just thought 22 being the only the major concern it would be a good spot to get it in. I guess where my thinking has caught me out is where I thought a good reg would stack off with 99-jj here. Not that stacking off with overpairs is always good, but given the board texture I thought I would be good a lot.
 
W

watchtowel

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P.s I really need to get into the habit of asking why I am 3betting or betting etc. When I saw Bgomez asking "why do we 3bet" I'm thinking like "cus I have QUEENS!". I really need to start asking do I get called by worse, what hands can I put him on and think out the hand a bit more and decide whether there is value in doing something...
 
ChuckTs

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Well again, if villain stacks other overpairs and bare flush draws on the regular then stacking flop is absolutely fine. Brendan was asking me about what we should do vs a good reg, who I think wouldn't do so. The flop texture is only part of the equation - villain's range is very important too.
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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I think you'll see most 10nl regs stacking 99-JJ here as well as FDs.
 
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