NLHE ring table hand

We'll considering I barely understood a word of his post, I think i'll pass.

I like this.

Rob, disagree if you must, but what's not to understand?

Sorry 4dogs (and sorry Bill!). It was 50% don't understand the answer and 50% dont understand the terminology. To deconstruct the post (sorry again Bill!)

Big pairs have very different objectives pre flop and on the flop and later streets.

Eh? The objective pre-flop, on the flop and post flop is the same, to win the pot. Until it's obvious you're behind, you should assume you're in front with an overpair. Nothing on the board would suggest this wasn't the case, only the betting of your opponent.

The bet was good but when he takes it to 21 go ahead and toss it.

Even though you are getting 5/2 pot odds? - JL's liability on this hand is capped at $29.50, so it's not going to be an overly expensive chase. Also it's $14 to call, not $21.

I will work on pot control, and being willing to toss these hands early, if the pot appears to be growing unmanagable.

If you've got the best hand, then you should try and win as much as you can with it. If the pot is going to become "unmanagable" then you are playing at too high a limit.

I will be willing to jeaprodize my entire stack on a set or better.
An open ended straight with a flush draw.
An open ender or flush draw with one pair.

Understood, but does this mean you should give up a hand which you are likely to be ahead on the information you have just because you've run into resistance? This is a short handed table, at low level and JL has no "form" for opponents to pick up on. His options are simple - call/all - in (pretty much same thing) and get 5/2 odds for a hand that at the moment is only behind a handful of cards (and is ahead of most of the "likely" holdings), or fold.


Tptk and over pairs, give implied odds, they dont get them.

Dont understand what is meant, and dont see what implied odds have to do with it - JL has got 5/2 odds, these will alter only very slightly when he goes all-in, and thats that! And what is Tptk?

I realize that one pair is a long term loser, and promise to never go broke after the flop with them.

Maybe, but this case is specific - you've got overpair, it's a small table (so winning hands will generally be weaker), and you've got easily sufficient pot odds to call.

Bill, if you're still on this thread, I think your advice may be valid for a 10 handed high stakes No limit game at the Bellagio, but did you take into account pot odds, JL's stack size, the short table and the low limits when you did your reply? If you did, what sort of hands do you think are callable at this level in this situation?

Top pair top kicker - worked it out, but you can type it out Bill (we are beginners after all!

TPTK. Oh that's what you meant? lol, I had to work that one out too. Rob, I almost agree with calling/ betting because of the pot odds. But I've still got a problem with this. First off, the pot odds are really more like 2:1. Except for scooby, we're all talking about a an all-in bet that will certainly be called. So, JL will bet $19 and Proplayer WILL match the last $5. Bringing the pot to an expected $38 +/- before the all-in bet. If Pro had the most likely holding, 2 pair or a set, then you are now drawing to 2 outs and are the 11:1 underdog. Nowhere's near what is needed to call.

Aside from that, I'm starting to have a problem with pot odds in general. Something seems to be missing from the equation. Variance I think. I'm not ready to get really involved with it at this point, but I think in many cases, pot odds should be weighed against your future prospects of making up the difference in later hands with solid play and a reasonable chipstack. Most of us don't have unlimited bankrolls, or are unwilling to reach for our wallets everytime we risk our entire stack when we're 2:1 underdogs just because we had the pot odds. Slow and steady wins the race. If your a steady winner anyway, why not wait 'till you have a real lock, better than a pair anyway, to vie for the big pots. I think this is what Bill means by a pot growing unmanagable.

Big pairs do have very different objectives preflop and post flop. To say that the objective is to win the pot is a given. Hnads have certain degrees of value preflop. For example AA and KK have more value than the blinds in any given game. Therfor no matter what the position, if you raise and steal the blinds you have received no realized value for the hand. 10,10 is worth about the blinds so if you steal with them, you are getting solid value long term.

So, if a raise will not isolate a player, and it will only steal the blinds, these big hands need to be limped. Hopefully a raise behind you will now allow a nice raise, getting quality value for the hand. Let's say you limp, but noone limps behind you, pot contol now becomes the objective. Top pair top kicker is usually not the winner at showdown, yes sometimes it is but it usually takes more. So, if you cant get all your money in preflop, your goals should now switch to controlling the pot.

Next, Yes build the story. You bet and announce I have TPTK or better. He says Im not worried. Could he be blufing? yup, but who cares. If he is willing to bet that much to win that little on a bluff, wait hell do it again. If its a bluff it is a huge leak. So, lets give him credit. TPTK is most likely no good. He is telling you he is wiling to play for all of the chips with this hand right now. It is my opinion that be.


I got to run, Ill addrees the rest later.

Cool
Bill

Hi Jesus, thanks for bringing this thread to my attention. I've pondered over it and come to the conclusion that follows. I'm a beginner, so please point out flaws in my logic.

Since you haven't got a read on the player, we have to give them the respect a typical player would receive. Firstly, what's he putting you on (ignoring his hand)? Either tptk, flush draw, or an overpair.

If he hit his set he'll want to make the odds bad to draw to a flush. If you have an overpair you might find it hard to lay down, so he's still good to move in.

Given this information, what can we put him on? AJh, A2h, A3h, 44, 55, JJ are the major candidates. I'd also include the other AXh combinations, as he has a 46.6% of drawing out, plus the chance he'll push you off your tptk or draw.

In total, this gives him 68.2% equity from our perspective. Our equity is therefore 31.8%, or roughly 2:1 against.

The current pot is 36.25, but if we're calling we're allin, so that's +5 making it 41.25, and 19 to 'call'. This equates to a pot of 2.2:1.

In theory, the figures say this move justifies a call. Unfortunately, we wouldn't be leaving ourselved much margin for error, and it'd be hard to work this all out so quickly. Let's try though:

We have him on nut flush draw or 3 sets. There are two hearts down, and we assume he has the ace, leaving 10 combinations. 3 sets which have 3 combinations each compared to the draw.

3 x 3 = 9

What's the chance of us beating the sets? We have 2 outs, and 2 cards to come.

2 x 4 = 8%
9 x 8 = 72

What's the chance of us beating the flush draws? Well he's got some other outs as well as the flush, aces and maybe the straight, so let's hazard a guess at 55% in our favor.

10x55 = 550

Let's add them together and work out the average.

72+550 = 622
622/19 = 32.8%

Close enough. I guess we might round off the 19 to 20 for that last bit just to make it easier to work out in our head, making it approximately 31%.

So it's a close call as far as I see it. I think I would call if I completed that calculation in time.

Woops, regarding the end of paragraph 4, if he's on a nut flush draw he won't want to push you off your draw, but the fact he'll push you off tptk and the small chance he'll push you off an overpair (or in fact 99, TT) is enough in my opinion.

This was a good thread. Nearly forgot about it 'till I was going through my subscribed list. I'm sorry JL, did you ever post the end result of this hand. I'm a results oriented guy and I'm curious as to how my gut instincts stacked up against the actual outcome.

Not sure how I missed this thread for 4 months, but my two cents. First, I would have put him on TP, with a flush draw with either A, K, or Q kicker. I think the biggest reason he pushed this hand is simply it was JLs second hand, therefor knowing JL doesn't have a read on him, he is going to force the new guy at the table make a tough decision. Villian also has no read on JL, so he may think JL are trying to steal with a re-raise because you missed the flop with AK, as has been mentioned a few times above. There are enough outs here that can give him the nuts, so to him a large re-raise isn't too dangerous, thinking you are going to most likely fold to his re-raise.

I get paid off quite frequently with people playing this way against me. I usually stack off before the first orbit if I hit a decent hand before the table can see my range of hands I play.

edit: damn, 8 months old, wtf was I doing all this time??

He had Ah3h and hit the straight on the turn.

So much for instincts. A semi-bluff? I knew that was a possibility, but I still say without a read, folding was the best option.

This thread was a classic. Alot of good discussion.

It's a call even if you know he has such a big draw. It's 56%-44% to him but the money already in the pot makes a call good, as JL is getting something like 2:1 on the rest of his stack. For it to be a bad call he'd have to be less than 35% or so to win.

If he's up against trips or 2 pair he's about a 9:1 underdog. These scenarios are not rare but are often difficult to identify, and anyone who is willing to take a mere pair (or overpair) this far without a very good read on their opponent will fall victim to it everytime. I think the problem here is that, not only was it an overpair, but it was a pair of kings. It's emotionally difficult to let this sure winner go. As it turns out, JL's opponent was making a semi-bluff and his call was correct. I wish it hadn't been because I think many readers will get mislead into believing that a an overpair is more powerfull than it really is. There's no shame in getting bluffed out of a hand. Just give yourself credit for a world class fold and move on. You'll usually never know the difference.