NLHE ring table hand

This was the 2nd hand so i have no reads (which i know that are very important especially shorthanded).

Full Tilt Poker Game #478146023: Table Alcazar (6 max) - $0.25/$0.50 - No Limit Hold'em - 18:26:33 ET - 2006/03/04
Seat 2: Jesus Lederer ($29.50)
Seat 3: Sparticus8802 ($13.20)
Seat 4: bjjdaddy ($33.70)
Seat 5: ProPlayer2005 ($48.25)
Seat 6: flamesrule14 ($18.75)
flamesrule14 posts the small blind of $0.25
Jesus Lederer posts the big blind of $0.50
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Jesus Lederer [Kd Kc]
Sparticus8802 calls $0.50
bjjdaddy folds
ProPlayer2005 raises to $1.50
flamesrule14 folds
Jesus Lederer raises to $3.50
Sparticus8802 has 15 seconds left to act
Sparticus8802 is sitting out
Sparticus8802 has timed out
Sparticus8802 folds
ProPlayer2005 calls $2
*** FLOP *** [4h Jd 5h]
Jesus Lederer bets $7
Sparticus8802 has returned
ProPlayer2005 raises to $21

What would you do here?

Ok I call........... EVERY TIME....Especially with no reads. I've gotten paid off so many times on hands like AJ or flush draws its unreal. If you lose so be it, i cant see him pushing a set, why would he ? Unless hes afraid of that flush draw, i figure your still ahead.

Call? Maybe you didn´t realize that with his reraise i wasn´t all in. I think that the only options here are push or fold. Anyway thanks for your opinion, i got the main idea.

Same difference really JL, sorry about the minor error in my post

Tough one. That bet smells like better than top pair. I think I fold it and then keep an eye on this guy.

i agree i think he's protecting tptk or something like that here with the flush draw on board
he might have made a set, in which case he's making quite the aggressive move...i think you are ahead here though

I know I shouldn't read too much into player names, but someone with a handle like "ProPlayer2005" would seem to me to be donkish enough to pull this move with TPTK, or even lesser hands. ^^

Seriously though, I think at these limits you'll see AJ-QJ or even something like TT or AhQh often enough as opposed to a set to make a push viable here. That said, without reads I can see the case for folding, as if "ProPlayer2005" is pulling these big raises with vulnerable hands you'll know about it before long and will be in a better position to take his chips with a read regarding this.

I think I push though, all things considered. This sort of hand is the exact reason you should be watching a table for a while before sitting down.

You go all in every time before the flop u slow played em and he hit a set. i would probaly call the fact u didnt get a read on him hurts, but i would call he might have qs but he probaly hit the set.

....all in on a 3XBB raise?
what if he has Aces? then you've just thrown your $$$ away
what if he's just being aggressive and has a mediocre hand? then you've just risked $30 for $1.50

had you made the initial raise, and he reraised you, then a big raise might be in order, but not right off the bat like that

i do like a bigger PF raise here, though but this is nothing close to a slowplay

hes gotta have you on AK and he has 9's/10's and wants this pot now

thats what i'm thinking...even queens possibly
but JL's small $2 raise PF may give away that he has a big PP...maybe the opponent knows this and is leading into JL to get his cash in against a set (possibly)
its a toughy
i think i'd push though...i don't think with a set he'd push his $$$ that hard

Well, i see some different opinions so i still don´t know what to think.
As tenbob said, at those limits it´s very common to see raises like that with top pair or flush draws, but also as FD said that reraise smelled like something better than top pair.

This is what i thought at that moment: "What hands can beat me? Aces, two pair and a set. According to the preflop action i have to discard aces (which would probably have reraised) and two pair (maybe there´s a little chance he has 45 suited), but i´m very afraid of a set, especially of 4s or 5s. Now, would he have reraised like that with a set? It´s very possible, because he may be afraid of a draw or he just thinks i´m going to call since i made that pot size bet. I know what is the most likely hand that can beat me, so now i have to see if there are any hands i can beat that would have made that reraise. I had been in similar situations where players call all in with flush draws or top pair, but at most those situations i was the one that reraised. The most likely hands i want to be facing are a flush draw and a top pair.
So there are 3 scenarios: A flush draw, a set or top pair (they are in the order i think it´s more probable). At 2 of those scenarios i have a good advantage, so i think i´m going to push..." Jesus Lederer has 15 seconds to act "....but wait, i forgot something. Based on preflop action, if he has a flush draw it´s probable that he´s also holding an A, or maybe JQ or J10. So that good advantage in the flush draw scenario would be just a slightly advantage. Anyway it´s an advantage and since i have no information, i´m going to push"

I pushed.

With a read the decision would be easier, so Dorkus i want to know how much time should i take watching the table before i join it, or should i join only when i have notes on every player?

well if you had notes on every player, by the time you were done, some would have left already
there're too many players online to do that, but getting a general table read is a must
so what happened?
was your read correct?
i'm thinking he had something like AJh

FD, since when did your cajones shrivel up to the size of raisins?? Of course you push here! Like TB and DM said, he's probably holding AJ, KJ, QJ, flushdraw, etc. There is such a thing as over thinking a situation. You must push here.

You call 7x BB raise slow-playing? Interesting theory. And how much value do you think he would have gotten for a HUGE overbet that an all-in would accomplish? About $0.75. Not exactly what I'd call a great return. The goal is to get as much of your opponents money as possible with a hand like this.

But now as I think about this hand, what are the chances he's got a set of 5s or 4s? Hmmm...I'll be interested in seeing how this one turned out. But I still say you must push!

I have never watched a table to get a read before i join it (i just look at the players´s stacks). I make all my reads while i´m at the table, and sometimes it costs me money to do it, so i guess i´m going to start taking notes out of the table.

In relation to the results, i´m going to wait for some more replies until i post what he had, because i´m interested on reading your opinions with the current information, which was all what i had at that moment.

I never care about thinking what are the odds that my opponent hit a specific hand. If i think that my opponent has a better hand than me and it´s not worth calling, then i must fold, regardless of what are the odds that he hit his hand. Or should i never think my opponent may have a boat because chances that he hit it are low? In my opinion, according to the betting preflop and postflop, chances that he has a set are high.

JL, I would agree with your decision, I am pushing here. If he has the set, or pocket A's, or catches the flush you say nice hand & move on. Still think it was the right play.

i guess if he's an idiot he could have JJ and has decided to push with it

I think you have to push. It will pay off more often than not. Im pretty sure it didnt in this case or you wouldnt be posting this. I think youll get a lot of J,high kicker hands trying to push you out before a higher card hits the board,especially at a .25/.50 table.

The toughest part is not having a table history on this player. He's got everyone's chips covered so the call on the pf raise could mean low pair or decent starter ( AQ-AJ-KJ). With you being new to the table and coming in with a 7$ bet my gut feeling is he's betting top pair and playing with aggression instead of the best hand. In this one I'd have to push.

lol, don´t believe i´m results oriented or that this is a bad beat story. Actually i like bad beats and i hate being lucky.

Well, i pushed and he called. He showed Ah3h.
He had the flush draw, a gutshot straight draw and an overcard, which made him favourite against my Kings.

It seems that i made the wrong decision, because when i pushed all my chips into the pot i was the underdog, but here it comes my final question: Was it really the wrong move? (i still don´t know and that´s why i need your opinions). Could i really have prevent pushing all my chips as the underdog if i had had a read on him?
What i´m trying to say is this: Lets say that instead of joining the table i would have been watching it to take notes. The first hand i see is exactly the one i told (instead of me lets say that bjjdaddy had KK), so i take my notes and now i know how ProPlayer2005 plays that kind of hand.
Now i decide to join the table, and the first hand i´m dealt is KK. ProPlayer2005 raises, i reraise, he calls, the same flop is dealt, i bet and he reraises. It´s exactly the same scenario. Now the real question comes: Would he play that Ah3h exactly the same as AhTh or 9h8h? I think the answer is yes, even if he didn´t have those extra straight outs he would have done the same, and in that case my push should be right.......i guess.

Now i have one more question: If he had JhQh (whis was very possible) the hand odds would have been almost 50%, and if he had AhXh it would have been nearly 53%-47% (with me as the favourite). If i thought he had one of those hands, was the push correct or not?

I´m still confused, so any answer will be very helpful.

well considering we are all putting him on some kind of draw, i think it would be a smart move making decieving your opponent like that.
Brunson himself has always said to lead into the raiser when you flop a monster
although he didnt lead into you, he is raising right back at you.
i think he realizes what you have and pushing with a set wouldn't be a bad play; you're pretty pot-committed
of course JL has posted the results so he didn't have a set - but pushing with a set would be a pretty smart play in my eyes; usually people at those limits can't let go of big pairs and maybe that's the kind of player he's pegged JL as.

We seem to have had a good sampling of responses to this thread. Including J.Led, it looks to be 9:1 in favor of pushing all-in and 1, this is my favorite, who even though he thinks your beat suggests that you should toss in the $14 just to scratch the itch. I guess he thinks going all-in for that last $5 is just too risky.

So, let's just call it 10:1 in favor of the push. Well, if your going to play, then your foolish to think that last Nickel's not gonna end up in the pot anyway.
So, why am I so out of step? I assure you Juicee, my cojones are just fine. Most of your reasoning seemes to have hinged on the percieved poor quality of play found at low limit tables. While I tend to agree, I find it amusing that most of you who replied to J.L's post play at exacly these limits. I guess we're all the exceptions to this rule huh? The truth is, that there's some pretty good action at $1.00/$2.00 and under, it's just harder to seperate the wheat from the chaff.

Jesus, you and I have played quite a few sessions together. If I had made this over the top bet, would you have called? I hope not. I think we all tend to assume low standards from our opponents until we have reason to believe otherwise. When I sit down at a table, the first order of business is determining who I wont call and who I'll always call. Until then, barring a monster, my guns remain relatively silent. In Hold'em, optimism is your worst enemy.

I never said Proplayer had a lock on the hand. Lacking any information on him I just attributed more credibility to his bet. As it turns out, while he did not yet have a made hand, he did have the goods. With his flush gutshot draw he was a 54% to 46% favorite. His bet made perfect sense.

That being said, all this talk about who had the slight edge is completely irrelevent. Good poker players are not riverboat gamblers. So what if you think you might be a 2% favorite? Just how much are you willing to bet on a coin flip? $20? $100? Would you risk $1000 on a crap shoot? Not me. My self esteem is better than that. I know that if I'm patient and observant, better opportunities lay ahead.

I'm a late arrival in this thread, but why not:

His range of hands is fairly slim here, but readless, I'd figure something like this:

Preflop: 77-AA, A7o+, A2s+.

Flop: No pair can be excluded here, I feel. He might put you on AK and push with 77 because he thinks the jack doesn't help you, but that's really risky.

Then there's AJ/KJ and a flush draw. Making such a dramatic bet with a draw might be overly aggressive, but there are a lot of hands you could have that you would have to fold if he overbets here, like 77-TT, AK/AQ/AT, etc, and if he has a weaker hand than that unimproved, betting big here is likely a great move.

But I couldn't lay down kings here.

The pot is laying you 21-14, or 3-2, and the only two hands in his range that you're really far behind at this point is JJ and AA. Most other hands you will have completely dominated, or will be about a cointoss with. Of course, just calling is not much of an option at this point, since you're pot-committed anyway. Just push it all in and let the cards fall.

FD has a good point when it comes to waiting for bigger edges, but I disagree with it being entirely valid in a ring game. I absolutely agree with it in tournaments, but in a ring game you can re-buy if you bust, and your bankroll should be more than ready to handle these fluctuations - if I'm in the position of being able to risk $1000 on a crapshoot where I'm a 2% favorite, I'll (hopefully) be bankrolled for it, so whether it's $20 or $2000 shouldn't matter much. This is easier said than done, of course.

Regardless, I think your hand vs. his range of hands is a big favorite. Not a huge favorite, but definitely big enough to take this race.

/FP

I am also late on this, but what the hey!

I agree with TB and FP. This is a call everytime. If you are facing a hit set then you have to accept that he got lucky and move on, but you cant lay down top pair in the hole with a flop full of average undercards

The only thing that is slightly worrying is the amount he bets. I would consider this bet to too big for a guy holding a hit set, like JJ, a minimum raise here would be best cos you are probably hoping for a call

I would probably put him on AJos, and he doesnt want a call cos you may have KQ. If I had AJ here, I wouldnt be minimum raising hoping for a call, especially with a couple of suited cards out there.

Definite call for me, and if I had a bigger stack, I would be raising

Hands like this dont play well in tournament or in sit and go's, but as for N/L ring even if you have a 2% edge its a go every single time. As for attempting to put this dude on a hand, its a fine strategy, but i feel that watching betting patterns is a much more accurate way of knowing where you are in a hand.

The re-raise over-bet tells me that this dude wants to take the pot down right now, he dosnt want a caller, he is weak. Why not flat call with the better hand, i certainly know thats what id be doing here with a set. You cant assume your opponent has the nuts every time, why be afraid of a flush every time there is 2 of a suit on the board, especially with one isolated player.

Its always difficult to put your opponent on a particular hand, and watching the betting pattern would normally work well. But with only a couple of hands played at this table, its tough to do that, just as tough as putting your opponent on a hand

I think calling here is still not the best move. If he does have AJ, then he still has 5 outs to take down the pot, making him a 4/1 dog but why give him a free card? Raise the dude - and you also get an indication of where you are in the hand

Having position in this siuation also makes a big difference. Sure, a slow-play check is a good move when you hold the nuts but with only top pair you gotta be thinking about taking this pot down asap

In this situation, it doesnt really matter if you call or raise cos you will be pot commited in either case - and will get called.

But with a bigger stack, you could be making some nice plays here

I think Tenbob is saying If the other guy has hit a set why would he push and not just call.

My recommending that you push wasn't necessarily result oriented, it was that my read on the table was he was betting with aggression and not the best hand. With that flop, the odds that he had the perfect hand for both the nut flush and the gutshot are very minimal. While it was possible he held the Q-J combination, I don't think it was highly possible. Even if it is a 53% -47% match up, I play the 53% to win, just as I would take a low pair to AK HU. So, yes, as a neutral observer to that hand, I still bet the Kings hard.

I see the point about calling or pushing with the slight edge. Given an unlimited bankroll, 2% EV is still EV, and if you could see his cards this would be true. But you can't. The problem here is that, with the uncertainty of his holding, it's not really 2%.

For some reason, everyone but me seems to be of the opinion that, given no information at all on your opponent, its safer to assuming he's bluffing, or underestimating the value of his hand. It's my experience that in most cases, this type of bet means exactly what it's supposed to mean.

J.L.'s betting pattern was representing nothing less than top pair. Proplayer had no reason to believe that his over the top bet would not be called. How many of you would have made such a move with anything less that 2 pair? How many of you here based your decision to bet on what you hoped, rather than what you knew? Yesterday, I folded a Queen high flush based on the way I perceived my opponents in the hand. I'll never know if I got taken for a ride, and I'm not going to spend much time wondering about it either. If it was a bluff, then it was a good one.

With so many possible holdings that can beat you, I'm not sure how anyone who is unable to lay down a mere pair can ever be a long term winner in this game. And with so many of you advocating it, it makes me more suspicious than ever of that 40% win rate of on-line players.

No, I dont think this is right - the pot is currently $35, you've got to put in $14 more to have a crack at it - 35/14 is 2.5/1. At those odds, you dont have to be a favourite at all. There are a number of hands that will get you beat, a hell of a lot more that you'll beat. Pot odds, it's a call for me, definately.

Valid points 4dogs, and good observation that J.L's betting was more readable in this scenario than his opponents. While I agree with you that too many people force their top pairs without considerable thought, I'm in the hopes that our members are commenting more on this scenario in particular, than in general. My comments on this were meant to be hand specific, and in other situations my tops have folded many times to a good bet. Sure you wonder if it was a good fold for a second or two, but the next hand makes that go away soon enough.

I'm guilty of skimming over this thread, and keep thinking i've missed something, but I don't get this 4dogs (sorry). Yes JL's betting does suggest top pair possibly, but he's got better than that, he's got an overpair.

And "so many possible holdings that can beat you?". Again, I keep thinking i've missed something, but I make it 7. AA,JJ,44,55,45,J4 and J5. Last 2 would be very lucky for opponent who shouldn't be raising with those. 44, 55 and 45 are more likely to be called (or folded) rather than raised with pre-flop. AA and JJ are possibilities of course, but that's only 2 hands. It's JL's 2nd hand on table, I see opponent trying to put him in his place (and JL's bet doesn't neccessarily mean top pair - could be standard continuation bet which would be folded to re-raise). I'd never fold here, not with over pair, 2.5/1 pot odds and small number of better hands (even then you can still catch on turn and river), no way!

Engh. Yeah, I screwed up.

My point is the same as Rob's though: You don't need to be ahead at all that often to make this call (or rather, push) worth it. There are a LOT of hands that you beat, and there are relatively few that you're seriously behind to. I can't really see how any other play at this point would be correct, short of accidently seeing the other guy flash JJ as he's dealt it.

/FP