A Live game situation

No Limit cash game... You have no tells on either opponent,except for observations made below.
UTG=500 short stack tourist, random social player loose/semi passive/weak
You =4500 big stack at the table. (tight aggressive/table preceives you as strong)
Button = 3750 solid player (switches gears, but not very well. Not afraid to get his chips in the middle, has turned over decent cards so far, seems to play some hands out of position.)

UTG makes it 120 to go.
fold.
fold.
You utg+3 See Q,Q red. and rasie to 400.
folds around to the button who reraises, to 800.
UTG pushes all in.
You call.
Flop= 3,6,10 rainbow.
You bet 1250
Button raises to 2500

1.) what are his possible holdings?
2.) Do you fold, call, raise, or push and why?

Thanks for your input.

Bill

Looking at this situation I'm guessing that the button went in with a pair of 10s. The solid pre-flop raise indicates a good hand maybe ace-face or middle to high pair. Since the flop doesn't help a good ace (or flush/str8 draw) - it's either a bluff or a set. In your description you are perceived to be a solid player so it's unlikely they'd continue to push if the flop didn't help them after you made the confident bet. You've put nearly half your money in but you still have a good stack even with the fold. If you call the raise you have to have a Q on the turn or river to have a shot at the pot - if button has the 10s I think they do...

Odds are I'm all wrong but this is how I'd read this...

All I can see here is AA/KK. Anything else and it's bizarrely played. Curious that he only minraised twice, especially preflop where there was already a nice pot to be taken down, but I can't see any holding bar AA/KK here, AA more likely. The minraise on the flop cries "call me please, I want your chips" - I doubt he credits you with a set.

Painful, but I think this has to be a fold.

I have to agree with Dorkus, that just sounds wierd (agreeing with a dork, lol) .

You would have to put him with AA or KK. If he had 10s then more power to him because I would have folded them.

AA, KK, JJ or maybe a crazy tilting A 10 suited (if he's an idiot)

what is the table limit? maybe i missed it
but my read on him was a pocket pair, probably big as prev. mentioned - AA,KK, if you're lucky, JJ and just maybe 10,10 for a set
i don't think pushing is a proper play here, as our reads of his hand all beat your ladies
if your read is that he is bluffing with a big ace ( which is a really weird bluff - min raise ), which is pretty a small possibility then be gutsy and call him down or even push...
i dunno thats how i see it

I went into the tank for about 3 minutes. I chose to push and here is my logic. There are 5 possible holdings preflop. AA, KK,JJ, AK.
10,10 would be pretty loose play for this guy, but still possible.
On the flop, I beleive he would have smooth called 10,10 as he now improved to top trip with no vulnerability. That leaves me with AA,KK,JJ,AK. 2 hands I can beat, 2 hands I can't. that's 50/50.
IF I push and he calls, Im getting 50/50 plus dead money. Not enough in and of itself, but by pushing I eliminate his postion on me, and gain a 1 time fold equity.
Really he can only call with AA, and KK. But, his reraise doesn't look like that's what he has. The board is not scary, so why raise? I think he is trying to protect a vulnerable hand... I think he has JJ.

I push all-in... is my logic above flawed?

Bill

Betting 1250 into a ~3400 pot doesn't seem to me like a protection play. I find JJ/TT unlikely given the third preflop raise, but if we assume he could have TT he's either flat calling or (less likely) pushing that flop to make it look like a protection play, as he knows you must have a strong hand given the preflop action. AK I also find unlikely - it's possible preflop but I'd expect AK to be either pushed as a bluff or more likely folded on the flop. While I notice a push to Button here is only 550 more than the minraise, which is peanuts given the pot size, I still think the above applies here.

Just as you expect TT to flat-call, Button would expect TT to be checked by you here, your bet probably makes him put you on JJ-AA or possibly AK, and his minraise seems to me to be begging for a call or a push, which leads me to believing he has AA, with KK second.

You obviously know the player better than I do, as I only have your brief assessment of him to go on, but given that I still can't see past AA/KK here. Seeing as he's ever so slightly pot committed I expect he called.

Interested to see the results, but hold back for a while - I'm probably as curious as you are to read other people's takes on the situation.

Yeah I see this as AA/KK and more so KK. The big bet on the set (10 10) wouldn't make sense because he isn't vulnerable. I think he is betting out to shut down the pot and avoid an overcard ace. That said, I think he's put you on AKs/AK and then maybe QQ.

That's my 2 cents.

pocket 3s, 6s, or, 10s would be my guess, or he's just screwing with ya lol

I'm going crazy waiting for the conclusion. :P I'm kind of agreeing with Dorkus' logic here though. It seems quite correct, though yours is pretty thought provoking too. Hmmm... :P


Jon

Everytime I am playing in a tournament after a person loses a big hand (but not all their chips) they go all in b4 the flop on the next hand. Position doesn't matter. If they lose big they feel the need to go all in with w/e cards they got.

I for one hate this. I usually wait for a decent set of cards before I go all in. Unless I have to go all in for BB etc.

Yeah I know why complain let them go out. Well it annoys me cause usually when I am in a good hand I get sucked out on by that dillhole. Yes I get the side pot but the whole thing should be mine not the guy playing 36 off suit who drops a miracle straight when I am playing pocket Qs and hit a Q on the flop

Rabble rabble rabble!!!

Conclusion!

He goes into the tank 10 seconds passes... I start thinking, well no AA unless he thinks I have the 10,10 good news I completely elimante those hands. (Im all in so Im just sweating it).
35 seconds pass... I think even KK is a call by now I feel I can safely eliminate that hand. That leaves JJ, and Im ahead.

Now I want a call. I need to send a discreet tell, that will make him call this hand!
The seconds are ticking what can I do to get a call out of this guy?
This is a cash game I have enough information now. I can reload if Im wrong...

He won't fall for anything, so I just can't do anything.

He tables JJ. The important thing is it was just as likely he had KK as JJ when I put all my money in the middle. If he had a better hand Ill just have to lose all my chips. That's poker.

Bill

Hmm, interesting.

Fair point, it's perhaps my more tournament-based background which led me to be so cautious in analysis here, but I still think he was silly putting in a third raise (and a minraise at that - a push or reraise to ~1200 would be more understandable than a minraise here, the minraise isn't going to throw someone off most of the time, so it's basically swelling the pot with a vulnerable hand that he's gonna feel uncomfortable with after a lot of flops) with JJ preflop.

Nice hand, anyway.