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  #36  
26-06-2007, 1:24 AM
stormswa
confused
 
Location: Earth
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mischman View Post
The little white ball has no memory. It doesnt remember that it hit black 9 times in a row and should now hit red. Each chance is 50-50(its like 49 cause of green but w/e). If you were to sit down and say red will hit 3 spins in a row, and it does, thats a statistical imprababilty(lol @ spelling). If you were to sit down and say red will hit, and it does, then say red will hit again, and it does, and again, and it does. Thats just gettting lucky because each spin was 50-50. Irexes explained something like it good in another thread, let me get a link.

In Vegas they stick score boards next to the wheels that show numbers and colors of the past X spins. People look at it and say OMG, red hasnt hit in 10 turns, let bet huge on it. In reality, its still 50-50.

The nickname for that scoreboard is the 'sucker board'
adding in the 0 00 its even less then 50/50 maybe 49/49 or even 48/48
 

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  #37  
26-06-2007, 1:25 AM
mischman
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Plays at: PokerStars
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mischman View Post
The little white ball has no memory. It doesnt remember that it hit black 9 times in a row and should now hit red. Each chance is 50-50(its like 49 cause of green but w/e). If you were to sit down and say red will hit 3 spins in a row, and it does, thats a statistical imprababilty(lol @ spelling). If you were to sit down and say red will hit, and it does, then say red will hit again, and it does, and again, and it does. Thats just gettting lucky because each spin was 50-50. Irexes explained something like it good in another thread, let me get a link.

In Vegas they stick score boards next to the wheels that show numbers and colors of the past X spins. People look at it and say OMG, red hasnt hit in 10 turns, let bet huge on it. In reality, its still 50-50.

The nickname for that scoreboard is the 'sucker board'
Quote:
Originally Posted by stormswa View Post
adding in the 0 00 its even less then 50/50 maybe 49/49 or even 48/48
  #38  
26-06-2007, 1:27 AM
WhiteWidowToker
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Location: Canada
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stormswa View Post
ok im done making fun of you now lets talk serious.

just because numbers have hit before does not mean they can not hit again. I have seen numbers hit like 3 times in a row, now im talking from experience here.

I spend A LOT of times in a casino, have not been in couple months because of home life stuff but normally I spend a lot of time there. I have seen 00 hit two to three times in a row. If you are basing your odds on the fact that the low number hit the last 6 times then there is a serious hole in your roulette game (sorry had to).

its comes down to this, you are getting lucky. Bottom line and hell ride that luck till it stops then get the hell out and Good luck.

if you are playing 2 sets of numbers then you really are not making that much, so we spread $10 on one set and $10 on other set and we spin wheel and we hit we make $30 and lose $10 so our net is $20 and $10 was ours to begin with so we just make $10 actully? you see why in long run we are not winning that much? we miss and we lose $20. the outside numbers are the worse things to play on the wheel.
OHHHHHH MYYYYYY GODDDDD!

have you ever seen a roulette table!!! i bet on the slot which says "1st 12" or the "2nd 12" I DONT ****ING SPREAD MY MONEY OUT ACROSS THE NUMBERS! i play those 3 little slot you see just above the numbers. i bet on two of them a round, which in total costs me 2 dollars. i win most of the time, because i have most of the numbers on my side.
  #39  
26-06-2007, 1:30 AM
stormswa
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Location: Earth
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WhiteWidowToker View Post
OHHHHHH MYYYYYY GODDDDD!

have you ever seen a roulette table!!! i bet on the slot which says "1st 12" or the "2nd 12" I DONT ****ING SPREAD MY MONEY OUT ACROSS THE NUMBERS! i play those 3 little slot you see just above the numbers. i bet on two of them a round, which in total costs me 2 dollars. i win most of the time, because i have most of the numbers on my side.
I know what you are playing, you are making almost nothing playing those numbers.

ok so here we go

$1 on 1st 12
$1 on 2nd 12
nothing on last 12

you hit you win $3 TOTAL its 3-1 odds there.

you lose $1 your total net is $2

all you need to do is miss once and you lose $2 its not profitable in long run which is why most players that play roulette a lot do not play on the outside.

not to mention MOST roulette table you have to spread $10 not just $2.

you will lose in long run I garantee you that.
  #40  
26-06-2007, 1:30 AM
mischman
Banned
 
Plays at: PokerStars
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This is a good post.

Poker not rigged - LMAO
  #41  
26-06-2007, 3:24 AM
ChuckTs
80s baby
 
Location: not trying hard enough
Posts: 10,116
Quote:
Originally Posted by WhiteWidowToker View Post
^^^^i don't know, why is it that you, and everyone else who is decent at poker use the same logic for determining pot odds? 20 percent of the pot for a 20 percent shot right? well, who's to say you wont go on a life long losing streak? why is it not ok to apply the same mathematical probabilities for other games? if you guys cant see that, then wow, don't plan on turning professional anytime soon. just because you use pot odds, doesnt gurantee youll win in the long run, does it?

if it comes up 1-12 3 times in a row, then, most likely, it will come up 13-36 the next time. And if it doesn't, thats gambling right? thats why i always bet 1 dollar first, and thats why i haven't been getting these huge payoffs, Ive only been making 20-40 dollars an hour. all i know is i always give myself a 67 percent shot every time. I'm not going nuts and getting lucky here, i lose, a lot. i just space it out so that my wins exceed my losses. If i wanted to go crazy and bet 10 dollars every time, then i would agree with you guys that its difficult to make money at roulette.

So say what you want, post your lame predictable jokes of how i should go pro, meanwhile ill be adding on to my 174 dollars that Ive won in 7 hours of work.

EDIT: this was a reply to chuckts.
Why did you get so defensive? I was just asking the question to see what your reasoning is. Call me cocky, but I happen to know that you're wrong. Keep gambling at the roulettes the way you are, and you'll end up losing money. I'm not sure if there is a way to win at roulette long-term (I've heard of methods, but never seen them proven), but betting on a certain set of numbers just because they haven't 'hit' in a while is a losing play.

That's how they suck you in. Some roulette games list the numbers that have hit, trying to induce the thinking that you're applying to your strategy.

Take this example:

You roll a die. What is the probability of rolling any one number (say a three)?

1/6, right?

Then what are the odds of hitting that number again?

1/6 again, right?

Just because you've rolled a three, say, 10 times in a row, doesn't mean that it's less likely for you to hit it the next roll. Just as it's not more likely that since 1-12 (or whatever set of numbers it was, sorry, I'm not familiar with roulette) has hit a bunch of times recently, that the other sets of numbers will be more likely to hit.

If you get AA 5 times in a row, and win the first four, do you now say "OK I'm going to fold AA this 5th time because now it's inevitable [or at least more likely] that I'm going to lose"?

Please don't take offense to my posts; I'm just trying to show you the wrong in your thinking. Not trying to put you down in any way.
  #42  
26-06-2007, 3:44 AM
bw07507
CardsChat Regular
 
Location: Syracuse, NY
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Wow, I cant believe I just read this whole thing, and I know nothing about roulette, but just think of this. If your method was really a profitable way to play roulette, the casino would lose money over a long period of time and would not offer the game. Do you really think a casino would offer a game that is profitable in the long run for you when you are playing against the house? It just doesn't make sense
  #43  
26-06-2007, 3:45 AM
stormswa
confused
 
Location: Earth
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bw07507 View Post
Wow, I cant believe I just read this whole thing, and I know nothing about roulette, but just think of this. If your method was really a profitable way to play roulette, the casino would lose money over a long period of time and would not offer the game. Do you really think a casino would offer a game that is profitable in the long run for you when you are playing against the house? It just doesn't make sense

wow imagine that, simple to the point and exactly right.


makes a lot of sense dont it?
  #44  
26-06-2007, 3:56 AM
Lo-Dog
recovering donkaholic
 
Location: Edmonton, Canada
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Posts: 1,702
Awesome thread!

The only way I have ever heard of beating roulette is to study thousands and thousands and thousands of spins (not 4 or 5) writing down all the numbers that hit for those thousands of hands.

Some numbers will hit more than others. Why? Imperfections in the wheel!
When a roulette wheel is made it is perfectly balanced but over time will slightly warp and lead to some numbers hitting more often.

Some dude in Spain made an absolute killing doing this for months until the Casino banned his ass for winning too much.
  #45  
26-06-2007, 4:32 AM
ChuckTs
80s baby
 
Location: not trying hard enough
Posts: 10,116
The method I heard about (and tried, though with muchos variance) is the 3x thingy.

Let me elaborate...I'm not sure 3x thingy explains it properly

Bet an amount, say $1, on either colour - red or black. The odds of winning are slightly less than %50, different if you're playing on a wheel with just the green 0, or 0 and 00.

If you win, bet $1 again on the. If you lose, you bet 3x that amount ($3, duh), and if you win that spin, then go back to $1 bets. If you lose that $3 spin, then go 3x again ($9).

Basically you keep tripling up until you make up for your past losses on the losing run. Theoretically, if you have an infinitely large bankroll, you will consistently win money in the long run. Of course noone has a bankroll that big, and eventually you end up on a losing streak that'll consume your whole bankroll. I got up to betting $27 (or was it of my $81?) of my ~$200 bankroll at the time, then after winning that one, decided it was time for me to quit before something bad happened.

Just calculating now, and I think that works for 2x as well.
  #46  
26-06-2007, 5:20 AM
titans4ever
I am your badbeat story!
 
Location: North Dakota
Plays at: Live, PS, FT
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Did you finish 8th grade math? Seriously. You think we are all just pulling your leg that the math and odds are against you.

You are playing the outside. Say you are only betting on 1-12, 13-24 & 25-36. You get 3 to 1 on your money. You are betting on a 12 in 38 and only getting paid out on 12 of 36 or 3 to 1 on your money. There are two spots that will NEVER pay but they don't count them in their odds for payoff. The longer you play the more times it hits those two specifically and you never win.

Here is you poker example. You have a flush draw and have a 33% chance to hit but the guy bets 36% of the pot every time. You will LOSE in the long run because you have incorrect odds to call.
  #47  
26-06-2007, 6:28 AM
ChuckTs
80s baby
 
Location: not trying hard enough
Posts: 10,116
ok, just realized I still have ~ $38 left on my titan account from free bonuses. Gonna gamble it up with the 2x method
  #48  
26-06-2007, 6:33 AM
ChuckTs
80s baby
 
Location: not trying hard enough
Posts: 10,116
WTF RIGGED

QUICKEST $40 EVAR GADDAM ROULETTE ATCHETCHEATTHCHAAHEHAT

min $2 bet didn't help Got a maximum of 3 losses in a row with $38 lol. Sigh.

They always top me up for 20 bux when I lose it all...perfect timing for july!
  #49  
26-06-2007, 6:45 AM
jayneseo
Almost Back
 
Location: Roch cha cha, NY
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Chuck its called the Martingale System, like all systems to beat casino games its flawed and you'll end up losing eventually.

Heres a good site to check out about roulette and many many other casino games

Wizard of Odds: The last word on gambling strategy

(incidently, that site is the one that lead me to this site)

Last edited by jayneseo : 26-06-2007 at 6:51 AM.
  #50  
26-06-2007, 7:43 AM
JAMILE1
CardsChat Regular
 
Location: Hawaii
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This is a qoute from Mr. Bill Burton a very well respected casino gambler and author of many books on casino games

"Some people claim that they have a sure fire system for winning at Roulette. The truth is there is no system that will change the house edge. Don’t waste your money buying a Roulette system"

I know you ain't buying a system, so why waste your money at a game that is most definitely long term loss right?, and like all the others here I think your logic is flawed at the very least, but if it's working for you than by all means go for it, the more I think about it take your winnings now and head to the poker table well ahead of where you started.

All runs WILL come to an END
  #51  
26-06-2007, 5:02 PM
vanquish
relax and take notes
 
Location: halfway to supernova
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChuckTs View Post
The method I heard about (and tried, though with muchos variance) is the 3x thingy.

Let me elaborate...I'm not sure 3x thingy explains it properly

Bet an amount, say $1, on either colour - red or black. The odds of winning are slightly less than %50, different if you're playing on a wheel with just the green 0, or 0 and 00.

If you win, bet $1 again on the. If you lose, you bet 3x that amount ($3, duh), and if you win that spin, then go back to $1 bets. If you lose that $3 spin, then go 3x again ($9).

Basically you keep tripling up until you make up for your past losses on the losing run. Theoretically, if you have an infinitely large bankroll, you will consistently win money in the long run. Of course noone has a bankroll that big, and eventually you end up on a losing streak that'll consume your whole bankroll. I got up to betting $27 (or was it of my $81?) of my ~$200 bankroll at the time, then after winning that one, decided it was time for me to quit before something bad happened.

Just calculating now, and I think that works for 2x as well.
Yeah, I thought about doing this a while ago. (I thought I made it up - obviously not) Seems like it would work out decently until you hit a bad run that ate your bankroll up.
  #52  
26-06-2007, 9:38 PM
Ronaldadio
CardsChat Regular
 
Location: Cramlington, Northumberland, England
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WhiteWidowToker View Post
you play poker I'm sure,
Two things here (I have not read all of the thread.)
  1. I can understand your thinking because, yes, if you spin a coin 100 times and it lands on heads 100 times, I would gamble the next one would be tails (unless the coin was loaded) However, it could easily land on heads for the 101`st time. So, yes, probibility states that u will spin tails but the same law of probability says that at some time u will spin an unloaded coin and it will always land on heads.
  2. Poker is different because u don`t need to play every hand and the probability of your hand being the best increases the more cards that are revealed. So, if u limp with 72o, the flop is 777, u know u have the best hand at that point - period. If the turn and river is 88 there is a probability of having the second best hand - but a very very low probability.
So u can`t say poker and roulette are both the same gamble.
  #53  
26-06-2007, 9:53 PM
Beavis68
Amateur Member
 
Plays at: Ultimatebet
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Quote:
Originally Posted by graveworm View Post
Roulette is considered to be the only game based on luck where the "house" can't lose. And from what I've heard the explanation is the 0 or 00 spot on the roulette.
no it isn't this applies to all table games. the explanation is that they pay you less odds of hitting your bet. If there were no 0 or 00 they would just decrease the payout.

Same as craps.
  #54  
26-06-2007, 9:59 PM
Beavis68
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Plays at: Ultimatebet
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ronaldadio View Post
Two things here (I have not read all of the thread.)
  1. I can understand your thinking because, yes, if you spin a coin 100 times and it lands on heads 100 times, I would gamble the next one would be tails (unless the coin was loaded) However, it could easily land on heads for the 101`st time. So, yes, probibility states that u will spin tails but the same law of probability says that at some time u will spin an unloaded coin and it will always land on heads..
probablility does not state that you will spin tails.

The odds of a coin coming up heads 100 times and coming up tails on the next turn is the same as the probablility of a coin coming up heads 101 times in a row.
  #55  
26-06-2007, 10:04 PM
Ronaldadio
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Beavis68 View Post
[/list]probablility does not state that you will spin tails.

The odds of a coin coming up heads 100 times and coming up tails on the next turn is the same as the probablility of a coin coming up heads 101 times in a row.
Please read all of my quote again m8, that is what I have said.
  #56  
26-06-2007, 11:00 PM
combuboom
glorified coinflipper
 
Location: Florida
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hahaha god. No wonder Vegas will always make money. Nothing I can say that hasn't already been said (i.e. your understanding of statistics is so fundamentally wrong it's jarring, praying this is a joke post, etc.)..

but you're right, your method is fool-proof! Quit your job! Professional roulette player will be your new career! Out of the millions of people who have ever played roulette, you're the first person to figure out this winning system! Publish a book!
  #57  
27-06-2007, 1:43 AM
ripptyde
CardsChat Regular
 
Location: Sacramento
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WhiteWidowToker View Post
if it comes up 1-12 3 times in a row, then, most likely, it will come up 13-36 the next time
Um, wrong

This thread is pure gold...GOLD Jerry....GOLD !!

  #58  
27-06-2007, 3:26 AM
MrSticker
Please quote me! I <3 it!
 
Location: NoCal USA
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Have you ever tried Limburger? I would like to someday. Muenster is pretty good, though. It's sort of like a soft Swiss.
  #59  
27-06-2007, 3:37 AM
Jonline
Junior Member
 
Location: Los Angeles
Plays at: Ultimatebet
Likes: Holdem
Posts: 24
Quote:
Originally Posted by WhiteWidowToker View Post
it has a 33.3 percent chance of missing the number, i have a 67 percent chance to win. I cant see what your missing here.
wow you really dont know what you are talking about. if your bettin one spread u only have a 33% of hitting. in roulette it doesnt matter what the previous numbers are, its all random.

when u flip a coin what are the odds of you hitting heads? tails? 50% each. if you flip once and hit heads, what are the odds on the next flip that you hit tails? according to you it would be something like 75%, which is WRONG. its 50/50 EVERY TIME. just because you flipped heads doesn't magically alter the odds that the next time would be tails.


oh and please dont bring poker into this, poker is a game of skill, not complete randomness.

Last edited by Jonline : 27-06-2007 at 3:45 AM.
  #60  
27-06-2007, 3:54 AM
stormswa
confused
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jonline View Post
omg, im sorry im not usually a jerk but you are a complete retard. let me explain this in the most simplest way so you can understand...

so what you are saying is that you are placing 2 bets, one on each spread (ie 1st 12, 2nd 12). and standard payout on these is 2 to 1. so lets say you bet $1 on 1st, and $1 on 2nd. If the ball lands on number 6, you win $1 on your first bet and lose $1 on your second bet. That is a gain of $1. now if the ball lands on 36, you lose both bets. gain of -$2.

So now you have to come to terms and realize that you have been on a lucky streak which will end with you losing more than you put in. please get out now while your ahead and save yourself the embarrasment.

Albert Eistein once said "You cannot beat a roulette table unless you steal money from it".
i hear he's a smart guy...

its actully 3-1 on those numbers. If you hit they give you $2 plus your origional investment of $1, but you are spreading $2 so you make $1.

so if you hit you make $1 and if you miss you lose $2, still not profitable in the long run.
  #61  
27-06-2007, 5:26 AM
WhiteWidowToker
Banned
 
Location: Canada
Plays at: FT
Likes: NL hold'em
Posts: 154
18 dollars in ten minutes, was down 4 dollars at one point, so youre atleast that right!

oh yea im just such a lucky guy lmao.

chuckts im not getting defensive, this is just the way i reply, dont be sensitive bro.
  #62  
27-06-2007, 5:34 AM
WhiteWidowToker
Banned
 
Location: Canada
Plays at: FT
Likes: NL hold'em
Posts: 154
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jonline View Post
mod edit - quote removed ~DM
hey joosebuck, not that i care about my own personal "ev" (whatever that is) but wouldn't this warrant the same outcome that fell upon me for calling someone a twit? why do i need to remind you of this? OH! because your not currently on my bandwagon, i see.

as for you Jon, are you usually accustomed to eating your own words? shall we re evaluate who the retard here is?

Last edited by Dorkus Malorkus : 27-06-2007 at 10:45 AM.
  #63  
27-06-2007, 5:37 AM
WhiteWidowToker
Banned
 
Location: Canada
Plays at: FT
Likes: NL hold'em
Posts: 154
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jonline View Post
wow you really dont know what you are talking about. if your bettin one spread u only have a 33% of hitting. in roulette it doesnt matter what the previous numbers are, its all random.

when u flip a coin what are the odds of you hitting heads? tails? 50% each. if you flip once and hit heads, what are the odds on the next flip that you hit tails? according to you it would be something like 75%, which is WRONG. its 50/50 EVERY TIME. just because you flipped heads doesn't magically alter the odds that the next time would be tails.


oh and please dont bring poker into this, poker is a game of skill, not complete randomness.
you need to simply pay more attention man, youre not understanding a thing.
  #64  
27-06-2007, 6:12 AM
Jonline
Junior Member
 
Location: Los Angeles
Plays at: Ultimatebet
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stormswa View Post
its actully 3-1 on those numbers. If you hit they give you $2 plus your origional investment of $1, but you are spreading $2 so you make $1.

so if you hit you make $1 and if you miss you lose $2, still not profitable in the long run.
thats basically what i said minus the typos.


Quote:
as for you Jon, are you usually accustomed to eating your own words? shall we re evaluate who the retard here is?
umm, what? your still not making any sense. u should read our posts. your risking $2 to make $1. and every 3rd bet you lose the $2.

Quote:
you need to simply pay more attention man, youre not understanding a thing.
LMAO, compeling argument man. let me quote "you can bet there again knowing that the 33.3 percent chance couldn't continue occuring much longer.".... case closed.
  #65  
27-06-2007, 10:03 AM
WhiteWidowToker
Banned
 
Location: Canada
Plays at: FT
Likes: NL hold'em
Posts: 154
thats why after a loss you bet more.... i know that could be risky (some would even call it.....gambling!), but thats why i set aside a set limit that I'm prepared to lose. that amount is 250, and so far, i have made 211 and am yet to leave play without being up in money. i just played another half hour and won 41.

i think the only problem here is you seem to be forgetting that this is still gambling, i never said this was 100 percent bullet proof, you seem a little bit too determined to dispel what I'm saying.

Last edited by WhiteWidowToker : 27-06-2007 at 10:09 AM.
  #66  
27-06-2007, 10:42 AM
WhiteWidowToker
Banned
 
Location: Canada
Plays at: FT
Likes: NL hold'em
Posts: 154
54 in 30 minutes up to 265
  #67  
27-06-2007, 12:21 PM
WhiteWidowToker
Banned
 
Location: Canada
Plays at: FT
Likes: NL hold'em
Posts: 154
152 in an hour and still going.

i was wondering, and this is a serious question, is it possible that the site might do something to step in the way of my constant winning? because i plan to build my BR up to just enough to buy a computer, which should be another 500 (maybe up 10 hours) and buy that time id think theyd be pretty cheesed off someone keeps raking in all this money.

just a quick side note, i took 20 of my winnings and played in a 5k grnt with only 276 people, came in 6 and won 350! woulda been second atleast had i not donked out to the chiplead.
  #68  
27-06-2007, 1:52 PM