I made the wrong play here. Anyone care to elaborate on why?

I made the wrong play here. Anyone care to elaborate on why? Also what do you think the correct play here is?

$1.20 One table SNG

Villains stats
VPIP = 17
PFR = 3
AF = 4.7

Full Tilt - $1+$0.20|50/100 NL - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

Hero (SB): $4,725.00
BB: $1,580.00
UTG: $3,450.00
CO: $870.00
BTN: $2,875.00

Hero posts SB $50.00, BB posts BB $100.00

Pre Flop: (pot: $150.00) Hero has K♠ A♥

fold, fold, BTN raises to $350.00, Hero raises to $4,725.00 and is all-in

Attached Images

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Ace king is a drawing hand, I would think just calling and seeing the flop would be the better play.

Rhymes with honkey?

Obv read dependent, but at a 5-handed table facing a BTN raise from the blinds and being the big stack, I think a 3-bet is pretty standard when you have so much fold equity here. Not sure what SnGWiz would recommend as far as shoving it, but I see AK shoving all the time here.

You don't say how many hands you have on villain, but those stats are pretty pre-flop passive if it's a small sample. If it's a sizeable sample then he rarely raises pre so you have to give him credit here for a hand. What's his steal%? You're stacked enough to afford a standard 3-bet (say around 1000) here in case he's stealing, then give up post-flop to further aggression if you don't hit. You'd give up the chip lead but still have a very healthy stack to play with at this level.

OTOH it can be argued that by not shoving here you face a difficult decision on the flop if he calls your 3bet and you hit say a single K on the flop, in which case you don't know if you're up against AA, KKK, or a weaker K. If the flop comes A or K and he has a smaller A or K here, with his 4.7 AF I'd expect him to play it pretty fast, and it would probably be hard to tell where you are. So with that in mind I don't think a shove is all that bad either if you don't have a ton of confidence in your read and postflop skills.

I'm also reminded that this is a $1 SnG. You can't assume standard play at these levels unless you've got enough reads on this guy to peg him as solid.

Ace King is not a drawing hand. I'm looking for longer than one sentence answers as well.

Again looking for longer than one sentence answers. And what do Monkeys have to do with this?

I left the hands and villains steal stats out on purpose. Was hoping to get a few more responses. Great post so far, this is the kind of stuff I'm looking for. Anyone else?

Also, The villains steal was 4% and fold the three bet 50% over 121 hands. Not a huge sample size.

It might be too short an answer for your liking and it might be a big donkey answer...but I know why I wouldn't do it.

You're the big stack by a good margin. There's 2 stacks that are short, one really short, which means you might be pretty much sitting on the bubble.

Even if those two get busted by your other opponents rather than yourself, there's a pretty good chance that you're still the big stack, or close to it.

But if you lose the hand and double up the 2,875 guy, that'll hurt. You'll still be ok, but the risk seems way greater than the reward here.

Maybe I'm too timid, but I'm not shoving here against a raise with AKo.

No, good answer for the first question but you didn't answer the second question. What do you think the correct play is?

I don't think it was the wrong play. Your sample size is nothing and it's a BTN open. Stack sizes are all wrong to not be committed if you 3bet smaller, so shoving gives you max FE and we get to see all 5 cards (which our "drawing hand" likes).

That said if you really didn't think his range is wide enough to make shoving profitable, then call. Playing postflop OOP with AK isn't the worst thing in the world.

From the small blind? I'd probably say a fold. You'd be out of position against one, maybe two callers.

I'd be really, really tempted to just call and see a flop...in fact, I'm such a poor tournament player that I probably would have done just that. But the disadvantages and risks still outweigh the potential rewards in my opinion.

IMO i think this play is pretty standard. His play looks like a steal, you shove hoping for a call.

The only thing i think that would change this is his PFR stats its really low. Like someone else pointed out since he raises so little when he does raise you should give him credit.

If shoving is the wrong play.

Possibly 3-bet/fold if he 4 bets.


Or to save more chips Call/fold.




Another thought this is 1.20$ your getting called everytime because of all the donkeys at this lvl. Its better to just call and outplay your villain postflop.

Says the cash player Just giving you crap

I feel like this is some kind of quiz and we're all going to get graded. =O

Well ace king damn sure aint a made hand.

No offense, but saying "AK is just a drawing hand" demonstrates very little understanding of poker.

For further discussion, please see this thread: http://www.cardschat.com/f4/ak-example-thread-173468/ (http://www.cardschat.com/f4/ak-example-thread-173468/)

To answer TPC, I can see how there might be better plays than shoving considering the stack sizes. However, shoving is still +EV, and eliminates the possibilities of any mistakes we might make in the future (which is bound to happen, playing out of position).

Jumping in here and not looking at all the responses.. His steal is 4% and his 3bet% fold is 50% here Id likely call here or fold. If iam jamming hes likely going to call and I need to suck out. If I fold hes gonna take down a small pot and Iam gonna have a better spot. Its a great spot for discussion because a lot of leaks are exposed here including mine at times. If Ive gone few orbits and hes not betting that spot alot Iam most likely to flat preflop and see a flop. He may be on a pp and If i flop it then i got the odds to get him in. If i dont I still got some equity to fold. Quick thought before bed, sorry if its a little short.

It's about equity. And AK's equity against the range that we can assign to our opponent in most case is very good. Now let's look at Made Hands vs AK (your drawing hand) to see which is better (wins more often).

Let's assume our opponent will open shove the top 10% of hands (88+/A9s+/AJo+) on the BTN when his M is 6 or lower:

We have 51% equity against that range with TT.
We have 56% equity against that range with JJ.
We have 58% equity against that range with AK.

I'll take the "drawing hand" over the made hands above every time and so should you.

Seeing WV's last response to AF itt Iam likely to get schooled a bit myself here by TPC and WV, but Iam ok with it. This is what CC is for. Let me have it.. I need a a little reality slap TBH after the last cpl days. This pumps me up

So when they have aces or kings just suck it up?

I guess what I'm saying is - even if you know he has queen jack suited, why risk the chips at this point???

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The likely hood of someone having AA or KK is pretty small when you hold an A and a K in your hand.

This thread isn't about "AK is just a drawing hand" which it isn't. Lets stay on track please.

Everyone has their own "sense" of what ace king means to them.

To me, shoving here is already a mistake.

Until you see your opponents cards they have ranges, not a specific hand, and as I showed above AK does very well against most ranges.

As for your example, why would you not want to get it in as a 60% favorite outside of end-game scenarios with ICM concerns.

Sorry about the derail TPC but the whole AK is a drawing hand BS needed to be addressed.

I still like your shove.

Honkey and monkey don't rhyme Asking...you raised to isolate? If so why all in? Or was btn looking to steal and you overplayed your hand and didn't get EV from AK in the SB? Think face palm is in order here. :-( You asked for responses and I asked questions. Sorry .That being said with his 4% steal I think you overplayed your hand

Let's use ICM to see why making the shove was the wrong play.

Stacks before the hand and the ICM
Hero (SB): $4,725.00 = $2.72
BB: $1,580.00 = $1.25
UTG: $3,450.00 = $2.28
CO: $870.00 = $0.72
BTN: $2,875.00 = $2.02

ICM Assuming everyone folds the the Hero Shove
Hero (SB): $5,175.00 = $2.87
BB: $1,480.00 = $1.21
UTG: $3,450.00 = $2.31
CO: $870.00 = $0.74
BTN: $2,525.00 = $1.88

ICM Assuming BTN Calls and Hero Wins
Hero (SB): $7,700 = $3.58
BB: $1,480.00 = $1.69
UTG: $3,450.00 = $2.68
CO: $870.00 = $1.05
BTN: = out

ICM Assuming BTN Calls and Hero Loses
Hero (SB): $1,850 = $1.53
BB: $1,480.00 = $1.26
UTG: $3,450.00 = $2.38
CO: $870.00 = $0.78
BTN: $5,850= $3.07

Villain stats are 17/3/4.7 this is only over 121 hands though and he is folding to a three bet 50% of the time which is only twice out of the four three bets I have data on.

So lets assume he is calling with 4% of his range here, since his raising and steal range is so low and he is only calling three bets 50% of the time, plus calling here is for his tourney life. (note, this is a small sample)

So we plug the data into PokerStove

---------------equity--------win---------tie
Hand 0: 43.135% 32.55% 10.58% { AhKs }
Hand 1: 56.865% 46.28% 10.58% { 99+, AQs+, AKo }

So If the button calls Hero will:
- Win $0.71 43% of the time = $0.31
- Lose $1.34 56% of the time = -$0.75

So with the ICM calculation we are going to lose $0.44 making this play if we get called.

With that said, I'm not sure how we can put a number on how often villain is going to fold. We know his fold to three bet is 50%, but that stat only counts 4 three bets. If we had more hands on villain we would have a better idea of how often he will fold.

If the button folds to the shove Hero will
- Win $0.15 100% of the time = $0.15

Anyway, this proves the risk to shoving isn't worth the reward which is all I really wanted to show.

ICM also has flaws, it assumes everyone is exactly equal in skill, and that they will play the same regardless of stack sizes.

I'm aware that Honkey and Monkey don't rhyme, but I wasn't going to give Pooffy the satisfaction of me saying Donkey... Damn, I just said it

There is no doubt that shoving AK here is the wrong play, I knew it as soon as I did it. Was one of those brain fart times. Or maybe I was back in my early days of Ooooo AK shove!!! LOL.

The point of this thread is to get some of the newer members thinking. Which is why I'm asking for more than one sentence answers. Making the right play is only part of the equation, you also need to know why the right play is the right play. This will give you a better understanding of the game and help you find spots and plays that are +EV. The better you are at finding these spots the more of an edge you will have against your opponents.

No worries, I know the "AK is a drawing hand" gets to you just as much as SSers.

I understand why you like the shove, but with the stack sizes and the stage we are at in the SnG it's not the right play at all. I think the above ICM calculation will give you a better understanding of why.


Shoving does make the hand easier to play, but it's not the right play, due to the stack sizes as you mentioned. I still want some responses from other folks on what they think the right play is so I don't want to elaborate to much more.

It's really not a +EV play if we take ICM into consideration (see above). Granted, villain needs a pretty good hand to call us and how often does he have a hand to call us with? We don't have a huge number of hands on the villain, but lets assume we had 1k hands on the villain with the same stats. He is going to call us more than he folds there because he is going to have a hand more than he wouldn't. If that makes sense, I'm not explaining it very well. Long story short, the risk isn't worth the reward.

No need to be sorry, these are the kind of things I'm looking for.

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I've shown why shoving is the wrong play in above the above posts and calculations. So what is the better play here? There have been some good responses so far, lets have some more.



.

If he folds at least 70% of the time (using your range) the shove is profitable according to ICM. I still think he folds at least that often and the shove is profitable.

Calling and playing postflop may be more profitable though as we keep him involved with hands that we dominate and we can look to steal the pot away on favorable board textures (ie ones that hit our blind flatting range and likely miss his BTN opening range).

Good stuff here.

This is where I do need a little help as far as ICM is concerned. Do you mind showing how you figured out if he folds 70% it makes the shove profitable? I was trying to figure it out, but I don't know if I was too tired or going about it the wrong way or both.

Well like I said I used your numbers so:

Our tourney equity before the hand = $2.72

Our tourney equity if everyone folds = $2.89
If he folds 70% of the time this part of our equity = $2.89 * .70 = $2.01

Our tourney equity if he calls and we win = $3.58 and we have 43% equity (according to your range)
Since he only calls 30% of the time and we only win 43% of that we win $3.58 12.93% of the time when we shove or $.46

Our tourney equity if he calls and we lose = $1.53
We lose everything not listed above so 100% - 82.93% or 17.07% of the time so $1.53 * 17.07% = .26

$2.01 + .46 + .26 = $2.73 which is greater than what we started the hand with and slightly greater still than what we would have if we folded (because we would lose 50 chips that we posted as the SB)

Man I hope that's right!!!

This is certainly a dilemma. Obviously your choices include 1) fold 2) call 3) raise 4) all-in.

Granted AK is a solid starting hand, fourth best of all starting hands in fact. But it isn't yet a made hand, as any pair is favored and a couple of them are dominating (AA, KK).

Personally I wouldn't shove here, only because I think the only hands that call are favorites against you - including the two dominating hands, despite the lower probability of seeing them since you have two of the eight A's and K's.

I also would not fold here. Sorry, but AK is one of the top hands and you already have the chip lead. Folding AK to a standard pre-flop bet is certainly not what got you there. I really wouldn't consider folding an option.

So do we call or raise here. Personally I would raise with AK, perhaps to 1200, to demonstrate our strength and hopefully take down the pot without risking too much of our stack. Granted, if he re-raises all in you then need to decide if he's just taking a stand or really has AA or KK (at that point you probably need to call against any other pair - maybe he pleasantly surprises you with AQ).

Of course, calling is also an option. Then, if you don't improve on the flop, you can either get away from the hand cheaply or try to steal. Since you're first to act after the flop, that might be awkward, since a harmless looking flop is probably going to look good to any pocket pair he played.

If you do call and pair on the flop you still have a dilemma in deciding the likelihood he had AA or KK. Granted if you paired your K, there's not much chance he has the other two. But AA is certainly a possibility. I suppose doubling him up if that's the case might just be inevitable.

I apologize for not using technical poker stats in my thinking. Even though I'm a mathematician, I try not to get too attached to the actual numbers. It may be a leak in my game, but at this point I'm willing to live with it. I just hope it doesn't make my analysis any less valuable.

FWIW, the raise amount I proposed above is probably unnecessarily high. Maybe 800 or 900 would be more appropriate.

These are important stats when it comes to a sitngo. Iam surprised more arent commenting on this. While I agree with alot of what WV said. In this position with these %'s above, shoving into this guy with AK is not going to be a profitable play in the long run am i correct? Hes not stealing in this spot alot. He most likely has a hand. And if he is, if we put out anothrt 600 rather than our whole stack we may be able to get him to fold without risking much. If hes folding to the three bet half the time theres a large likelyhood we can force him to fold here if hes not strong

The same thing i was thinking.

The answer to second question, would be to fold and wait for a better position, even with the stats you posted i can tell hes a tight player, that reraise shows he has PP, TT or better.
I've been in the same spot, pushed a player around to much only for him to wait and knock me out.
For me i am folding and waiting, i don't what to hurt my stack for the HUs play...

The 2nd post for the stats, would show hes got something.


I may not be right... But i do think i am.

Basic stats over 121 hands are barely relevant. Steal stats over that sample mean absolutely nothing. I mean he's had the BTN like 12 times (yes I know steal stats come from CO/BTN/SB). How many of those 12 times has he had a steal opportunity? Once? Twice? Maybe he doesn't try to steal from the CO or SB but will attempt to steal 80% of the time from the BTN? Fact is we don't have nearly enough hands to know yet.

As for the suggestion to 3bet to a smaller amount, I HATE it. We're committing a third of the effective stack size and then what folding when he shoves? Folding when we don't flop and Ace or a King? Ewwwwww. No thanks.

Like I said in my 1st post ITT if we don't think shoving is right vs this player, we should call. Yes I hate playing OOP as much as the next guy but having AK makes it pretty easy, and if this guy's preflop stats indicate anything about his play postflop he's unlikely to be one to punish us for playing OOP.

To be honest I never understood the strength most attribute to AK. The hand does have lots of possibilities but they call it. "Walking home to Houston" for a very good reason.

Given only the villains stats w/o the privy of watching his/her "style" of play over time I would put them on a medium pocket pr.

Given the above read, say Pocket 9s, I would either call the bet or possibly bumping it a bit to get an even better read.

There is no way I would have shoved here.