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Poker - Here's a situation for you all to think about...
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#1
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Here's a situation for you all to think about...
You are near the bubble in a tournament...let's say a $5 MTT with 1100 entrants. 99 Places pay out and 110 are left.
The average stack at this point is around 15K. You have 25K and are in the BB. The blinds are 600/1200 with an ante of 75. The action is folded around to a short stack in middle position who raises all-in for 4000 total. Everyone folds around to you. You look down and see 64 offsuit. What do you do and why? I already know what my actions would be in this hand, I am just curious what other posters would do here... |
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#3
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I'd Fold. I know you'll say you should call as pot odds would justify a call with any hand and opponent could make that move with absolutely anything, but personally i would let this one go and invest the saved 2,800 elsewhere. I think i'm a looser player than average especially late on, so I'm curious as well to see what other say. Little bit better cards i'd definately call but not with 4 6.
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#4
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It's almost a no brainer that you would fold. You would only get 4k out of it and chances are, the other player has two over cards. If you fold, the player will only get 1800 which will be gone once the blinds get to the player. It's not worth it.
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#5
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Ive made calls like this in the past, but really calls like this are of no avail, you are an underdog in the hand simple as that. These are the moments in a tourney that count, if I had a face card it might be something to think about.
So you call, double him through giving him a decent stack to play with, will this be the guy to bust you out at the final table ? He is on the bubble with enough chips for another 2 orbits, and the likeyhood of making the money himself. I would put the guy on a very good hand, at least an overpair to our measly 64. No this time I fold, and wait to pick my spot, Ive been very guilty of letting my hard earned chip stack get decimated very quickly on plays like this. But thats not to say its a bad call either, each to their own. |
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#6
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#7
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#8
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You have to fold here. I would guess that the short stack had A-something, two face cards, or a pair. Hard to see taking the gamble with 6-4 os. Now ... if you had some live cards you might take the chance. But if you lose, outside of letting your competitor double up and become a possible threat to you, you lower your stack to 21,000. A blind or two later, and you start feeling the heat. Much better to save that 4,000 for pushing an excellent hand.
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#9
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OK, here are some of my responses to your comments (I'm glad I can spark a good debate.)
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Ok, if you want to win a tournament, you have to accumulate chips however you can get them. If you make this call here, 98% of the time you are an underdog (unless of course he has 22 or 33). However, just because you are an underdog DOES NOT mean you should fold. Let me explain this topic that seems to puzzle almost everyone on this board. If you win this pot your stack will be over 30K. If you lose, it will be at 20,925, still significantly above the average stack. When it is folded around to you, the pot is 6475 (BB+SB+9 antes+ his 4000 chips), it is 2800 for you to call. You are getting 2.31:1 odds to call here (6475 in pot / 2800 to call). Even if your opponent has AK, you are only a 1.9:1 underdog (~35% to win). You are getting the correct odds to call here. It is situations like these that too many players pass up. If your arguement is that you can save your chips for later you are missing the point. You are actually losing yourself potential chips here by folding. If you fold your stack is down to 23,750. Lets say the next hand you go all-in and double up. You only double to ~49K (with blinds). If you call and win the pot with 64off before hand you would double to around 61K. This is a BIG difference (12K, which is HUGE at this point in the tournament). It seems like no one else here understands the importance of putting your chips into the pot when you are getting the correct odds to do so in a crucial stage of the tournament. Calling in spots like this is what can seperate you from someone who every once in a while squeaks into the money, or someone who goes deep into many tournaments. By folding here you are passing up a chance to accumulate more chips without taking a big hit to your stack. |
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#10
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I understand the argument re pot odds (I said I knew what your answer would be), but I wouldn't exactly be jumping through hoops of fire to take 2.3/1 odds for 1.9/1 chance, not in this situation. There is also chance (admittedly small) that opponent already has pair.
Second part of your argument contradicts first part. You said that if you lose initial bet (which is more likely than not) then your stack will reduce to 20,925 - doubling this only makes 41.5K - 20K less than 61K! As an alternative argument say you lost bet, then were broke down again to say 6,000 chips - you'd be wishing you had kept the 2,800 you "threw" away. I still think I would fold here. |
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#11
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When do you stop calling hands that your an underdog in ? 64o are rags and should be thrown where they belong. And I have gone deep into MTT's several times, and made big money once. But i feel the way to play is to wait until you have favourable chances and better hands, id much prefer to go up against a big stack holding AK than visa versa holding garbage like 64o Thats just my take on the issue, and its not to say that your wrong chichiubs |
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#12
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#14
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Fold and let him have the BB this time around. You are allready doing better than the avg stack. Fight again on another hand.. 3X the BB Bet with the hopes of getting lucky to take him out with suited cards just won't work. They aren't even suited connectors wich may then warrent the call.
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#15
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#16
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Just a point on tiny stack play, I was big stack at a table on the bubble a few weeks ago, 1450 players, nearly the same situation.
The guys managed 65th place from delaying play, taking his time and being a general ass, but he managed it. I have to disagree with you on this one, i will NEVER call an all in with 64o unless its heads up and he has to go all in on a blind, so that the end of my opnions on this post. Good craic though, slainte mo chara |
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#18
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TENBOB vs CHICUBS
I ALWAYS WIN WTIH [sic] 63o!", proclaimed at approximately 10:53 EST exclaimed Chicubs1616 following a hand played on POKERSTARS.com in which unimproved Chicubs1616 63o lost on the river to a flush held by another player. "DID U SEE HIM CALAL [sic] WIHT [sic] THAT CRAP?! I **** HATE SIXTHREE. 63o IS A ***** TERBIBLE [sic] HAND"
Apparently frustrated by the site's automatic obscenity filter which prevented other players from seeing his curses in chat, Chicubs1616 proceded to experiment with spelling and spacing variations for the following four minutes, including "PHUCKING SIX THREE ", "F_UK SIX", "THREE FKUKING BLAWS." Regardless of the form, the messages all served to drive home Chicubs1616s controversial thesis: SIX THREE in the hole is a great hand. News of shocking cChicubs1616s conclusion regarding the relative quality of 63o spread quickly throughout the poker world. RGP lit up with a record number of posts, including dazed, almost apologetic commentary from some of poker's top scholars, including luminaries such as author David Sklansky. "I don't know what to say," read an excerpt from Sklansky's post. "I mean, I've been playing for quite awhile, and when I write a book, I do a good amount of research, lots of statistical analysis, all that stuff. I was pretty darn sure AA was a good hand, the best hand in fact... but after hearing comments Chicubs1616 ... I just want to say I'm sorry for misleading everyone. I just ... I didn't know." At press time, various poker authors were feverishly working to revise all of their texts containing now-erroneous assertions regarding the quality of AA. Industry sources report that Tom McEvoy has already started work on a book co-authored with, Chicubs1616 tentatively titled "Championship Poker the Chicubs1616 way :" SIX THREE PLAYS FOR ADVANCED PLAYERS" Chicubs1616 |
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#20
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Hahaha...very funny, I'm glad that you think enough of me to write a flame post...
Now, if you would like to put your money where your mouth is, I would gladly play you in a heads-up match...that is if you have a bankroll, or if you are even old enough to legally play on a poker site... |
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#21
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Re. the original question, it's right on the borderline. If my stack is any shorter or it's costing me any more to call, I fold. If I have a bigger stack or the push is for less, I probably call. I don't think you're giving up/gaining much whichever option you choose. I probably lean towards a call here more in the hope that there's someone who's silly enough still hanging around to give me more action because I'm "that guy who called a push with 64o" than the fact that I think it's mathematically the best move. |
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#23
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Despite what Tenbob says, its not always about having the better hand. If you have a 33% chance of winning a hand where it only costs a few more chips to put him all in, and you are getting pot odds, you should almost ALWAYS call. You cant always have AK in this situation, and if you wait until you get a monster hand, you will probably be almost out of chips before you see it.
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#24
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Tenbob, I don't understand your flame post - Chicubs was referring to 6 4 os, but you were talking about 6 3 os - this is a totally different situation!
I think Chicubs was quite clear with why he thinks you should call with 6 4 os IN THE PARTICULAR SITUATION. He wasn't extolling the virtues of calling all in with rubbish - Chicubs is one of the most knowledgable posters on site, and if you read his previous posts you would know this, so there's no reason to mock him. Maybe you're following the example of certain other posters on site who feel the need to mock their "intellectual inferiors"? I didn't agree with Chicubs either, but that's the whole point of discussion pieces like this. If you know how other people will act in a certain situation, that's valuable knowledge which you can use to adjust your game accordingly. |
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#25
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It was a joke guys, supposed to be a laugh, and I had a few beers on me when i wrote it, yes it was supposed to be 64o, but i was a joke...
Well i find it funny anyway. But on a more serious note, i really enjoy debate like this, its what this site has been sadly lacking for the past few months |
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#27
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Apology accepted Rob, but in no way am I saying that im superior to anyone on this site, especially Chicubs, i enjoy reading his posts and I feel that he adds to my knowledge of the game.
My flame was in no way personal, (it was a bloody joke), and no i am not trying to emulate any other poster on this site. Chicubs, just to retort your post, i am a 28 year old self-employed professional with a maths/physics degree under my belt. My bankroll if your interested is currently over $2,000. And i dont play grudge matches against anyone, anytime. Give it a month or so, and ill gladly play you in a series of heads-up matches. When we can sit down afterwards like adults, and discuss how we both played and maybe debate out some of the hands on cardschat. Heads up is an area of my game that needs vast improvement. Sorry to distract from the initial thread with a joke gone wrong, but it still dosnt distract from the issue, i still wouldnt call with 64o, or indeed 63o. |
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#28
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Saying you should call in this situation because of "pot odds" is like calling a bet when you know you are beat because you're "pot-commited". Just doesn't make a bit of sense to me to throw chips away like that. Maybe if they were bigger connectors, but I still say, keep that guys stack small, don't give him the chance to double up, and put him on your radar to knock him out another hand with your chip stack, when you have the hand to do it.
Why would you take the chance of letting him build his stack back up to possibly come back and bite you in the ass? The old addage "a chip and chair" is sound advice to remember...I can tell you from experience. I've been down to about 20 chips, bided my time and came back to win the thing. I guess I'm just not as bright as chicubs and cannot grasp the concept of why it would ever be a good idea to not protect your lead.... |
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#29
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I'm glad that there are some posters on this site who actually have enough knowledge to contribute to an argument like this. The purpose of this post was to spark a debate, and I think that so far it has accomplished this goal. This site needs more posts like this. I think that what has been discussed might improve some posters play, especially in the area of tournament strategy.
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#30
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Now here's a great quote to dispel all debates such as this. John Stewart Mill states that "no individual has a monopoly of knowledge, therefore it is an exercise in arrogance not to tolerate the expression of individual beliefs. For how are we to know that are views are correct, whilst the views of others are wrong."
Sorry about that, I am currently perusing a book on Liberal ideology. |
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#31
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Wow. That was hard for me... But seriously, this is a good thread, we've needed one like this for awhile. I am not good at coming up with these "scenarios", and I'm not much into quoting odds. I say just play the game and use common sense. It's worked out for me so far. I have to wait for my fellow Cardchatters to come up with a thread like this one so that I can contribute my two cents. |
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#32
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#33
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Don't worry too much about that. You're obviously a young man who is very sure of himself, and there is nothing wrong with that. You do make comments at times that make it seem as if you think your knowledge is far superior than that of the rest of us, but hey, if it sparks a good discussion, more power to ya! And you do have some quality info to offer, so keep it up!
(And don't mind me...having some hormonal issues this morning...Hey, I'll admit it! LOL) |
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#34
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Well, since the "fight" is over, iīm going to reply to the original thread.
Saying that if you have a good EV you must call on every situation itīs wrong. When youīre talking about EV youīre applying the term "long term". So a situation when itīs not profitable to apply EV is if youīre in a tournament and you are the one who is all in. In that case there isnīt long term. If you lose, youīre out of the money and thatīs all. And even if you win you may not reach the money. The tournaments are very particular. You can apply all what you know about EV just if you have a very big stack (about 4 or 5 times the size of your opponents) and you cannot be the one who is all in. Saying that, in the situation that chicubs gave you have a comfortable stack that in relation to your opponent stack (iīm talking just about the guy who went all in, who is your only opponent at that hand) is bigger by ~6 times. So this is a situation where you can apply the EV. Applying that, it would be an easy call. But as some of you said, there are some factors in the tournament which makes you doubt about the call. First of all, you donīt want to double up him. But also you donīt want to lose any hand, you donīt want to finish in the bubble, you donīt want to vote today at gamefaqs.com for Sephiroth (come on Link!), etc. At poker you must take some risks if you want to win, specially in a NL tournament. Of course those risks must be "justifiable". You donīt want to call with 63o if itīs going to cost you 3/4 of your stack and youīre sure your opponent has something like high pair. But the risk chicubs mentioned is justifiable because you can clearly apply EV. Youīre going to still have a nice stack if you lose. In relation to being near the bubble, i think it doesnīt affect too much the decision. When youīre near the bubble in my opinion you should loosen up a bit because everyone becomes more tight, and at that point itīs very good to steal some blinds. p.s: I donīt have too much experience in tournaments and thatīs why my opinion here is probably wrong. Last edited by Jesus Lederer : 22-09-2005 at 7:15 PM. |
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#35
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If you are going to call with 64 suited here, why not with 64 offsuit??? If the cards are suited or not doesn't change the odds that much where it would be incorrect for you to call either way...
I said I wouldn't call here.. looking for a gut shot straight, better odds of catching the flush. The suited connectors give you better odds instead of chasing a gut shot straight. Yet like I previously said your ahead of the avg stack. Thinking here that you must be at least ahead of 10 other people who are on the bubble. So it leaves you for another fight for later on. Also based apon this person who went all-in, he is going to be pushing chips in for a little bit. Trying to constantly double up cause he is also on the bubble. He at the moment has 2 options, going out at the bubble or making it. Now making him a loose agressive player (maniac). It is also still early in the ballgame because after the BB you also become UTG. You still have to act 1st.. Patience, Power and Position always plays a factor. |
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