3 day $10 to $500 DoN Challenge (+ concept posts)

I've already cashed out pretty much all my bankroll but I have a little more time than I originally expected so I'm going to do a super short bankroll challenge for kicks! The goal is to turn $10.70 into $500+ by the end of Tuesday, 3/30 playing double or nothings. 10% of the final bankroll will be donated to CC somehow.

Rules:
BR < $55: $1 DoNs
$55 <= BR < $208: $5 DoNs
$208 <= BR < $416: $10 DoNs
$416 <= BR: $20 DoNs

Any money from pending stakes and or collusion credits will be noted and added to the bankroll. Gogogo!

Attached Images

BR1.jpg (15.3 KB, 495 views)

Collusion credits?

When people are found to be cheating in a game you are involved in, you may be given a collusion credit. How the cheater's money is redistributed is undisclosed but most people think it is given to whoever bubbled in the game.

Ahh, I got you. I don't play the DON's, does that happen often?


Edit: Oh and GL on your challenge.

Damn bro, if you run into me 20tabling the $5s ffs be nice and dont shove my blinds


GL mate, I know u'll do this.

How many tables u doing per session?

good luck with this go get them i'll be cheering you on

TY. I get about one per month averaging about 2000 games so it's not that often but its enough to give me confidence that Stars security is doing its job.

TY. I'm just going to play whenever I have time because I'm packing / sending packages / making lots of phone calls so anywhere from like 1 set to 4 sets (~100 games) per session. Right now I can only play 13 $1.10s so starting from there

Why 13 tabling mate, odd number or u just hardcore superstitious

I would say he only has enough money in his account to play 13 tables right now.

looooooool! I feel like such a dumbass now

lol

Session: 47 $1s: +6.30
Bankroll: $17.00

Didn't run particularly well and the odd time of day probably made the games harder than they normally are. In regards to the number of tables, what TPC said. I am now able to 15 table

Just posting updates is kind of lame so let's throw in Double or Nothing ("DoN" from now on) concept posts. In every concept post, I will focus on one concept that is important to DoNs and explain it to the best of my ability (I suck at explaining things so this is practice for me ). By the time this thread is done, I hope to have covered most concepts essential to beating DoNs over the long haul.

Concept #1: Game Selection

The Basic Idea:
Over the long run, poker is a game where we make money by having a skill edge over our opponent(s). In any particular game before starting, the amount of money we expect to make ($EV or expected value in dollars) in that game is determined by who our opponents are. Therefore by selecting games that have less regulars (people who play lots of games and are DoN specialists) and more fish (people who are bad likely recreational players), we are able to increase our $EV.

Application:
I go by a rule of never registering in a game that already has 2 or more regulars. If there are 2 or more regulars in all the games in the lobby, I will just start up new games until I reach the number of games that I want to be playing at any given time.

Many regulars who start up their own games do not like other regulars registering in their games because they know it decreases their $EV so you also have a chance of getting "spite called" (calling with the intent of screwing you over) by that regular which is really really bad for you. In DoNs, you almost never want to get called in the late game so avoid regulars that either spite call you or call you with a wide range of hands at all costs. In DoNs, it is possible to make a -$EV play that is even more -$EV for your opponent. This concept will be covered in another post. Part of your skill edge in DoNs comes from not making enemies with other regulars.

Well I wish you luck in your attempt on a $10.70-$500 in 3 day challenge. I believe you'll be making over $100 for sure but not all that certain how far from there you'll get. You seem like an over average player and shouldn't have to much trouble at the $1.10 DoN's, but not sure how you'll perform at the $5-$20 DoN's. Best of luck in your challenge

Best of and luck and keep us updated... I'm very interested in this!

I look forward to your updates. Would it be possible for you to post your anticipated playing schedule? I would like to rail you in a few games to see if I can learn anything.

I would also like to know the estimated hours of the day you believe you'll be playing so I can rail you as well and maybe learn a thing or two from watching you play. I don't really play DoN's but from the few times I have, i've doubled my money most of the times. Whenever I get a BR on P'stars i'll try and play more DoN's.

I'm sorry but I don't really have a set schedule because I'm playing in between running errands. I've made myself searchable (WurlyQ) so feel free to look for me whenever you're logged on

Dude, that's a hardcore challenge. You better play those whole 3 days if you wanna make it

Seriously good luck though. If you acomplish this you truly are a skilled and lucky poker player

Don't have the details, but I believe wurlyQ has had one of the better winrates among regulars at those levels. He cashed out his roll built up through them +, and is really just racing the clock here (and hoping to run well of/c). Its a given he would beat them long term.

Good luck, OP will watch with interest...oh no, strategy in a challenge thread, now I don't know where to keep this thread. j/k, the concepts posts are a great addition.

Session: 35 $1s @ -$.50
Bankroll: $16.50

Ran lol bad Playing in the CC league game and will resume afterwards with a few errands sandwiched between.

Concept #2: *Multi-Tabling

The Basic Idea:
We can not win too much per game in Double or Nothings (DoNs) because at best, we will only win a little less than double our buy in. Therefore in order to maintain a good amount of dollars made per hour ($/hour), we need to play lots of tables at the same time. Of course, we need to learn how to beat the games first, but multi tabling is a developed skill where we need to distinguish what is important and what is not in the limited amount of time we have so it should be something people should at least try out to see if they can manage before seriously considering DoNs for the long haul. In order to maximize money made, $/hour is the number we want to maximize. The ideal number of tables will vary from person to person.

Application:
To illustrate the necessity of multi tabling, let's look at an example. At the $5.2s, a 20 tabling 4% return on investment player (ROI) would expect to make $4.16 per set ($5.2 / game * 20 games compared to a 6 tabling 10% ROI player who would only expect to make $3.12 per set. There would be no problem if we could get a high enough ROI to compensate for the lack of tables but this just isn't possible unless you move to much higher stakes which are extremely competitive.

The other choice we need to decide between is playing continuous and sets. Playing continuous is starting up a certain number of games and starting up a new game whenever one wins. Put another way, the same number of tables will be running at any given time. The advantage of continuous is that you can get more games in per hour which means a higher $/hour if you can maintain your ROI. However, this results in staggered games with different blind levels, and makes game selection more difficult because you have to either register while playing or use an auto register script which means no game selection. Playing sets is starting a certain number of tables and then completing all of those games before starting up any new games. This aligns most of the blind levels making games easier to play but allows for less games / hour. There are many scripts out there to help with multi tabling and auto registering which are worth looking into.

bump, this looks awesome. Wish you all the best.

Hmmm.Sorry to hijack thee thread.I just played a 5.50 DON.I got it allin with KK first blindlevel,the other guy had the rockets.Just wondering is it a wrong play to get it in with cowboys on level one of a don.I had no reads on the guy.Any thoughts?

Tight is right but readless, I'm not folding KK. There are only a handful of regs that I have a decent amount of hands on that I will fold KK to during the first two blind levels. In general, people will show up with all sorts of hands, especially on the weekends. You need to have roughly 65% equity against villain's range which you will generally have.

Thank you,im not bothered about losing the hand/tournament just whether i made the correct play or not.Thanks for the response

Last concept post for today. I'll start game play concepts tomorrow.

Concept #3: Using a Heads Up Display

The Basic Idea:
It's nearly impossible to follow every hand when playing lots of tables so a Heads Up Display (HUD) is a must (getting Hold'em Manager or Poker Tracker 3 which contains a HUD is highly recommended not just for the HUD but because the analysis it allows you to do is very very valuable). The HUD is very useful for games like DoNs which are primarily shove or fold because most of the play is preflop. Postflop play has to consider factors such as bet sizing and flop texture which makes HUD stats much less useful but shove/fold poker can be fairly well represented by HUD stats.

Application:
In DoNs, we are going to be shoving a lot so we want as much information as possible in determining how often we are getting called by players still remaining in the hand. How many and which stats to use are up to the player depending on how complex they want to make their layout. However, I think Voluntarily Put into Play (VPIP), Preflop Raise (PFR), Cold Call% (CC%), and Fold BB to Steal (FBBtS) are musts. VPIP and PFR can be used to interpret someone's general raising and calling/limping range. CC% is used to distinguish between when someone limps and when someone raises. FBBtS gives us a gauge as to how often someone gives up their big blind which can be important due to some players not liking to fold when someone is trying to steal their big blind.

Creating the best HUD layout is a trial and error process that is going to require a fair amount of tweaking. One way to approach which HUD stats you want is, during the game, ask yourself "what do I want to know about villain?" in various situations. Make mental notes to yourself, and after awhile, you should be wanting to know similar kinds of information about your opponents. Then try to find if an appropriate stat exists.

Other stats on my HUD:
Aggressive Factor: The only postflop stat I have and generally used to determine if I can pot size control out of position
Hands: Total # of hands used to determine how reliable the stats I have are
Steal by position: Some people steal much more from SB than the other steal positions. Steal by position gives us a better idea of someone's raising range based on position.
SB Fold vs Steal: When our sample size for FBBtS is small, this is a secondary factor I look at
3Bet vs Steal: If I have a good hand in position but can't call a shove, I want to know how often we get blown off our hand
Fold vs resteal: Some people steal relatively frequently and this stat helps us determining how often we can resteal. Finding good resteal spots is oftentimes the difference between your average regular and a very good regular
PFR by position: Another set of stats to narrow someone's raising range. Some people raise based on their holecards while others have a narrower range from earlier position.

Session #3: 96 $1s @ +$24.40
Bankroll: $40.90

The ROI isn't bad at all but the downswing early in the day really hurt because it limited the number of tables I could play (I was limited to ~15). I'm going to use my FPPs to play satellites because this is going slower than I had hoped.

Attached Images

Challenge Day 1.jpg (37.7 KB, 443 views)

It's going to happen, I can feel it. And it's going to be great!

Concept #4: Introduction to the Independent Chip Model

The Basic Idea:
The Independent Chip Model (ICM) is a system that allows us to assign a value to everyone's chip stacks. In cash games, ICM is not necessary because the value of the chips is exactly its monetary value. This is not the case in tournaments (including SnGs) where the value of our chipstacks varies from case to case, even if we have the same chipstack. The exact calculation to determine how ICM is calculated as well as its pros and cons is a matter that requires great depth so only a simple explanation will be provided here. There is a great amount of information on the web for those who want to know more about how ICM works.

Concept #5: Why being nit tight in the early game is correct

The Basic Idea:
In the early game, being nit tight is right in DoNs. The two reasons for this are, 1.) in most games, our chipstacks increase in value just from folding, and 2.) we need to have a significant amount of equity (the percentage of time we win the hand at any given point in the hand) in order to profitably get our entire stack in. I am not going to cover what equity is so please research that one your own if you don't know what it is. Also, please note that there are two very different types of equity. There is equity you have in a hand which is how often we would win the current hand at any given point (we will refer to this as equity) and equity you have of the prize pool (we will refer to this as $EV). Let's look at an example:

In a $5.20 DoN, the prize pool is $50 and at the beginning of the game, everyone has a 1500 chip stack which has $5 in real money value (everyone has an 1500 / (1500*10) = 10% so 10% of $50 is $5). Let's say that on the very first hand, someone doubles up and someone busts (we are going to ignore blinds for the time being). This means the person who has the 3000 chip stack and everyone else has a 1500 chip stack. According to ICM, the 3000 chip stack has 15.56% $EV and everyone else has 10.56% $EV. There are two things we can take away from this:
1.) By folding, everyone who had a 1500 chip stack just gained 0.56% of $EV (10% -> 10.56%)
2.) The person who just doubled up now has double the chips but not double the value of the prize pool. So the natural question to ask is, how much equity in a hand do we need to profitably double up? The math is the following:
-> Chance we double up * $EV when we double up + Chance we lose * $EV when we lose = $EV when we fold
-> Equity * .1556 + (1 - Equity) * 0 = .10
-> Equity * .1556 = .10
-> Equity = 64.27%
Thus, we need 64.27% equity in a hand to double up. In reality, this number is going to be slightly smaller depending on blinds and how much has already gone into the pot. When the amount we risk compared to the amount we win is smaller, we need less equity to continue, but it doesn't change the fact that we need to expect to win a fair amount of the time to enter a hand.

Application:
During the first two blind levels, folding everything but QQ+ is not that far from optimal. Set mining is an option if we think we have good implied odds. As in any deep stack situation, position is important so opening up our range to something like TT+, AK is fine from CO/BTN. The other factor to consider when opening up our range is that playing more hands requires more of our attention. Instead of playing these marginally +EV spots, we could multitable a few more tables and focus on the late game shove/fold decisions which are paramount to DoN success.

Update #4:
Total games: 348 $1s @ +$31.20
Bankroll: $43.39*

*$1.49 added from a pending stake

I'm not going to make this because I'm getting &*$#ed over hard (on top of the running below EV, I'm running into a ridiculous number of KK+, and AT+ blind on blind) and because I've had to spend more time on errands than I had originally hoped. I will still run this as long as I have time and hopefully variance will even out and allow me to make a respectable profit.

Attached Images

Challenge Day 2.jpg (41.6 KB, 412 views)

seen you playing tonite ,stayed off your tables
wish you the best ....gl

Thank you everyone for your kind comments. I'm not going to respond to posts that don't contain questions in them but I am definitely reading all of them!

I am watching you playing a single DON, possibly at the end of a set.

Nice thread by the way, I am learning a lot here

You probably said it elsewhere and i missed it, but why did you cash out most of your BR?