Boring SnG hand, AJo 5 handed vs big UTG push

Dorkus Malorkus

Dorkus Malorkus

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UTG had pushed a similar sized stack twice before from EP recently ('recently' being in the last 3-4 orbits), no calls so I haven't seen any of the hands he does this with. He seems a fairly standard $11 SnG player, a bit too loose and somewhat aggressive.

pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (5 handed)

Hero (t1855)
BB (t3055)
UTG (t2310)
MP (t4630)
Button (t1650)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Jc, Ah.
UTG raises to t2310, 2 folds, Hero ???

What does UTG's huge 16bb push mean? Is his range smaller or larger than if he'd just popped to 450? Call or fold?
 
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Dingodaddy23

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DEFINATELY call and expect to either be ahead or racing.
 
Bombjack

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I don't see how you could call this. He could have a small to medium pair that he doesn't know how to play in early position (in which case you're a dog), or he could have a smaller Ace. Who knows? Is it worth the risk when you'd be all-in? Even if he has a something you beat, you're never a massive favourite. Wait for a better opportunity. If you had three times his stack maybe it would be worth a call, but not as it stands.
 
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mischman

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What is hero? What is the T in front of the stacks? why didnt you just get the stars HH?

loledit: HERE YOU POOPYFACE (the converted hh is far easier on the eye, not so much in this hand but def in hands with more action btw keke ~DM)

POKERSTARS GAME #6609188265: TOURNAMENT #33580105, $10+$1 HOLD'EM NO LIMIT - LEVEL V (75/150) - 2006/10/12 - 16:15:45 (ET)
Table '33580105 1' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: Qhr1s (1855 in chips)
Seat 5: ropeadopa (3055 in chips)
Seat 6: catch95 (2310 in chips)
Seat 7: KIMKIM6 (4630 in chips)
Seat 8: Bong2eho (1650 in chips)
Qhr1s: posts small blind 75
ropeadopa: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Qhr1s [Jc Ah]
catch95: raises 2160 to 2310 and is all-in
KIMKIM6: folds
Bong2eho: folds
Qhr1s ????
 
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Bombjack

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Hero is the poster. t = tournament chips.
 
Schatzdog

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I agree with Bombjack, this is a fold.

I can't see much that you beat at this stage and at best you're 50/50. Pick a better spot. You still have ~12 BB left so not too drastic yet.
 
Dorkus Malorkus

Dorkus Malorkus

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at best you're 50/50.

You don't think AT and even weaker suited Aces are in his range?

To me, the overbet implies "I don't want a call". The fact that he's done it recently before and not been called makes me think the likelihood of him moving in like this with a monster hand is unlikely. I think the only hands we're behind here are AQ and JJ (with the latter being unlikely as there are only 3 Js left in the deck), we're flipping with TT- and ahead of Axs and even KQ/KJ.

That, or he's on a severe card rush and has no clue how to get value out of big hands with a manageable stack in lateish SNG situations. It's possible I suppose, but he didn't seem like a totally clueless player.

Results to come, I've tried to keep my anaysis unbiased and reflect my thinking at the time before I knew the outcome, but I'd appreciate more truly unbiased input. :)
 
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Bombjack

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Even if I knew he had KQ and I'm a 60-40 favourite, I wouldn't call. It's not a cash game, it's an S+G and you'll be out if you lose - you're not even in the money yet. If he has a small pair, you're less than 50%. Your best hope is that he has Ace-x where x is smaller than a Jack, in which case you're only 25% to go busto.
 
Effexor

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I thought about this for a while and I'd fold. Mostly based on the fact that you have no fold equity by calling off all your chips. Yes it's probably true that you are likely ahead, but you have enough chips to pick a better spot, one where you are the aggressor. I wouldn't want to panic and take a coin flip at this point.
 
blankoblanco

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You don't think AT and even weaker suited Aces are in his range?

I agree with you here. My online experience tells me just about any A, suited or not, could be in his range. Not sure if I'd call or not though.
 
loopmeister

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Fold, I reckon.
Even if he has been stealing, he's trying to get his opponents to think he's playing crazy so that he does eventually get called on the big one.

I usually let someone else take on the maniacs, unless I have a top 5 hand.

Dorkus, you were advocating chucking AQs in the other thread for a smaller call, you've gotta let this one go as well surely?
 
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Hey folks, first time posting on these forums, and I'm only a beginner poker player so take my advice with a pinch of salt.

My thoughts here would be don't risk it. Someone who goes all in that often preflop isn't likely to be doing it with just the top hands, and provided others keep folding isn't going to make a huge chip lead from doing it.

If he keeps doing this the chances are that sooner or later he's going to run headlong into a monster. Just bide your time and keep your fingers crossed that when it happens the person holding the monster is you :).

I love seeing folks like this on the regular tables, they're a great earner. The only downside in a tournament is that chances are someone else will take his money.

Myx
 
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#1) This is a SNG, you never risk your chips on a race or draw, hoping you are ahead (until you are ITM or shortstacked)

#2) This guy could easily have a low pocket pair, or AQ... sure he might be loose/crazy but wait until you are 100% sure you have him dominated and then pick his pockets. He wont want a call with 22, but you dont want to risk your chips with AJ vs that hand

#3) See #1 :) Don't take any risks in a SNG until you are ITM, then play for first.... Easier said than done, but you arent short stacked yet, so no worries.


Answer: Fold like superman on laundry day!

PS if you havnt seen any of the hands hes pushed with, he could have gotten several pocket pairs in a row and then Aq.... until you have more information.....
 
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Dorkus Malorkus

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Those saying fold, what range of hands do you call with here?
 
robwhufc

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It's an odd bet, 2310 to win 225 is less than 1/10 odds. I reckon he's got AA, and has shoved all in to make you think he's playing a weak ace or a small pair and wouldn't want a heads up confrontation, so you'd call whereas you may fold with a 5 x BB bet.

I'd let him have this one - it would be nice to punish his mad overbet by knocking him out, but i'd be confident enough to take him (and his opponents) in a bit more time, so there's no rush, even though you are 4th from 5.
 
Bombjack

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Those saying fold, what range of hands do you call with here?
I say call with AK, AA-TT. AQ... hmm, a bit borderline. I'll cop out and say call with that one if it's suited. :D

Much more comfortable calling with the high pocket pairs than AK... with AK you're still only 65% vs random cards, better shape (75%) vs an Ace or King hand, and only 45% vs a pocket pair. Depends how lucky you're feeling!
 
medeiros13

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Your M is about 10 (his 15) He could be a LAG player but he could also be a Harrington disciple who wants to get first all in vigorish if he gets Ax dealt to him. I'm assuming that based on the fact that you've said he's been all in twice in the last 4 rounds. He's looking to bust out or double up and get back in the thick of the tourney. Do you have a read on him as being a maniac prior to this?? Regardless, you're getting low on chips in relation to the chip leader, I see no problem with risking your tournament life on AJ. I know it's not a great holding but who knows if you'll see better in the next 10 rounds.

Edit: I know I discussed big hand/big pot earlier but when your M is below/at 10, you need to make a move!
 
Dorkus Malorkus

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Dorkus, you were advocating chucking AQs in the other thread for a smaller call, you've gotta let this one go as well surely?

I hope you see why they're completely different situations given the number of players, blinds, and stack sizes.

I would be silly to raise 55 UTG in level 1 with 9 players, but 5 handed and with 8bbs it would often be correct to push, for example.

I'm not actually 'advocating' anything here either - yeah I did call in the example but I'm still quite undecided as to the right move and I think anyone who is saying this is an 'easy' call or 'easy' fold is being a little silly. I'm just trying to make everyone think a little harder.
 
loopmeister

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I hope you see why they're completely different situations given the number of players, blinds, and stack sizes.

Fair enough - shouldn't really have brought it up.

Those saying fold, what range of hands do you call with here?

In this situation, even with 5 players: AA, KK, QQ, maybe JJ. The blinds aren't that big that I'd risk anything else at this point. If I was pretty convinced he wasn't holding AA, and since he has been stealing of late, I'd also play AKs.

Maybe that's too tight, I dunno.

In fact, the more I think about it, the more I like the call. Just goes to show how close the decision is. If it was me, in the 15 seconds one has to make a decision, I'd eventually just prod the fold button with a fair amount of swearing.
 
tenbob

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Nice thread Chris. Ok here is my take on it. The more often he makes this EP play the more you should open up your hand requirements to call. If hes doing this lots (3rd time in 4 orbits ? ) then calling with AJ is fine.

In fact id call here with all the mid aces A8-AQ, pairs down to 88, KQ, (dunno about QJ,K10 but calling would be marginal). If however this was a once off push, then easy fold.

Cold calling with AJ can be tough, and some can argue that you only have your SB committed to the hand so why go broke, calls like this WIN sit and go's. Go ahead and back into the money if you want, nothing wrong with that. But based on the limited information that we have been given id advocate a reluctant call.
 
Dorkus Malorkus

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PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (5 handed)

Hero (t1855)
BB (t3055)
UTG (t2310)
MP (t4630)
Button (t1650)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Jc, Ah.
UTG raises to t2310, 2 folds, Hero calls t1780 (All-In), 1 fold.

Flop: (t4315) Ts, 4d, 5c (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: (t4315) Ad (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t4315) 3c (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: t4315

Results below:
Hero has Jc Ah (one pair, aces).
UTG has Kc Qc (high card, ace).
Outcome: Hero wins t3860. UTG wins t455.
 
Bombjack

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Nice, but you were only 56% to win. Not really worth the risk if he has you covered IMO.
 
ChuckTs

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Nice, but you were only 56% to win. Not really worth the risk if he has you covered IMO.


err of course you don't know this before you call :/

My opinion is pretty much the same as TB's. He's pushed several times utg recently and I would start to suspect him just pushing to scare everyone off and win the blinds. AJ isn't the strongest hand, but this guy's range is huge. I think I call (trying to ignore results)...I hate to let people like this push me around when it gets shorthanded.
 
gord962

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Ignoring the results, this is a VERY tough decision. Being that I was short stacked to the aggressor, but still having more than 10X BB I think I would pick a better spot. But if the situation had me with more chips, even as little as $500 more, I would call. Another condition for a call here is with 5 BB or less.

BTW, nice read Chris.
 
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