Why should I not value bet here?

From an article about bluff catching/range merging:

When I read this my initial thought was that I would actually value bet the river. Then I thought that this might be because I don't play against very good players.

So is it standard to check behind here against good players (without trying to range merge) and bet against the average non thinking player?

Umm, knowing how the hand had played out before the river is kinda necessary here.

er um

yeah sorry.

Heads up, limped (Not stated but I assume) pot pre. Villain donks pot size on the flop, we call. He checks, we check behind on the turn. He checks river, we ???

For me, I need more info to state a case. Is this a cash game or tourney? How has the villain been playing so far (tight, loose)? What are the stack sizes?

Donks pot size?

Yeah, on second thought I suppose my question is pointless. It all depends on the game dynamics. While explaining range merging the author was just trying put forth the assumption that given the how the game had gone a good player should check behind while an even better player should bet. Meh, anyways if anyone's curious look here

depends heavily on the type of opponant your up against.. if he will pay off with a 9 8 or jack, then sure value bet it.. if your up against a tricky player who could still have an ace, or try to bluff raise the river, its probably best to check, as he wont pay you off with a weaker holding...

again, pretty dependant on a lot more things than just mentioned.

very dependent - like why the heck did we limp QQ?

good point, haha

I don't think the question is pointless, but as everyone is pointing out, there are many factors that come into play. If the author didn't provide any background, then it's tough to debate this. I enjoy these kinds of questions because it makes me think and I it's great to hear other peoples thoughts. Just need more info on this one.

We definitely need more info here but I think that the donk on the flop is a good bet that most decent players would make. Board is fairly dry. When a second barrel is not fired on the turn that could be to induce a bluff bet, or it could be because villain has air and isn't willing to spend more trying to get you off the hand. That being said, I don't think this is really a good river to vbet- you will likely be paid off by a j only, maybe a 9. In general losing hands fold to you and hands that have you crushed c/r.

Yes, yes .. I would need to know, was it raining? What was the relative humidity? Was the villain a knuckle cracker? How are we to help if you don't give us the pertinent info!?

Where was this article from?

Read the article.

So here's the basic dilemma - we have a strong hand that isn't the nuts. When we consider betting the river, a general line for many players would be to check behind - our hand has strong sd value, but a weak A easily beats us, and is consistent with the way the hand has played out, depending on who the villain is.

If we bet, is he ever going to call w a worse hand, or is he ever going to fold a better hand? If yes, then we should bet/fold here (assuming you think a shove in this spot is never a bluff). If no, then there's no point in betting in this spot - if nothing worse calls, then when we have the best hand doesn't accomplish anything, and when we do have the worse hand, we lose the bet.

However, if you're up against thinking opponents, range merging can open up other opportunities in other hands, where you can get called by bluff catchers more often because you've shown that you're willing to bet w a medium strength hand.

oh, lektrik, look at post 6 above

Value betting the river seems the right play to me because its extremely unlikely that he would have an ace then check 2 streets after betting the flop.

His bet on the flop may just be an complete bluff or he may have caught something else on the board and will pay you off on the river with a smaller pair than queens.

Limping preflop with QQ isn't generally recommended btw

for the hand, what xavier said. *thumbs up
unless u're playing against an insanely tricky player like dwan who might come over the top of u just for the heck of it, always valuebet here given the action of check turn check river by villian.

and one more thing, always raise pf in position with QQ. build the pot, u arent laying it down pf anyways.

Note that kingme didn't play this hand, he's trying to put context around an example, made up, hand that is only described for the river, not for prior streets.

Here's a basic question - if you're value betting here, what hands worse than our QQ is calling given this board? The gist of the article is to bet here when we believe villain will call w a bluffcatcher like JT or T9 (we certainly won't be happy to be called by A2o or T8). A thinking Villain who's paying attention isn't going to call w those hands (JT, T9) unless he has reason to believe that we're betting a weaker hand than the trips, full houses, and straight that are all possible here, so the bet is a waste of time if he's not going to call it, and exposes us to c/r's and calls from hands stronger than ours.

Funny, I just discussed this situation with a player who played on the tv-table vs Phil Helmuth in WSOPME 2005.
He told me he knew that he had Phil Helmuth beat, and thought Phil would call if he had a ten.
Its around 6min into this clip:
YouTube- World Series of Poker 2005 $10000 NLHE Main Event EP3 2/5

And to answer the question. Well it depends. If you are afraid of getting re-raised off your hand, or if you think your opponent will fold everything that you can beat, then check.
If you think you have your opponent beat, and you think there is a chance that you will get payed off, should you bet, then put in a value bet.