What's The Probability of ...?

#1 12th January 2008, 9:33 PM

Suppose in a game of hold 'em you are holding two suited cards. Well your chance of flopping a flush is 0.8%. Ok now let's say you are playing any two random cards, and the flop comes three suited. What is the probability that a flush has been flopped against you? It must be higher that 0.8% right. Anybody know? What about the same question for a straight being flopped against you?

#2 12th January 2008, 9:36 PM

Well that would depend on the number of players in the hand, the board texture (specifically for straights), and your cards (ie having some of the cards needed to fill the straight/flush would make it less likely for your opponent(s) to have flopped it).

Don't ask me how to calculate it though

#3 12th January 2008, 9:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SubT33

Suppose in a game of hold 'em you are holding two suited cards. Well your chance of flopping a flush is 0.8%. Ok now let's say you are playing any two random cards, and the flop comes three suited. What is the probability that a flush has been flopped against you? It must be higher that 0.8% right. Anybody know? What about the same question for a straight being flopped against you?

Why? It's 118:1 for both you and your opponent-- I don't understand why you would think otherwise.

#4 12th January 2008, 10:10 PM

well if you are playing against nine people and they all have 1:118 chances of flopping a flush, it seems like that probability is additive against you. Like you get odds of 1:118 but the nine others get 9:118 (1:118 for each player against you). But like ChuckT pointed out, there are other factors as well.

#5 12th January 2008, 11:02 PM

If you have multiple people in the hand it gets nasty, because the cards of one player, who may not necessarily have a flush, may impact the odds of another player having it. So if there are 3 hearts out there, the odds of player A having a flush varies based on whether player B has a heart or not. These odds can be calculated, but they are ugly, and even so there's really no reason to ever know them. Just know that the odds are very small.

#6 12th January 2008, 11:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zachvac

Just know that the odds are very small.

That's what I wanted to know. Thanks.

#7 13th January 2008, 8:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SubT33

Suppose in a game of hold 'em you are holding two suited cards. Well your chance of flopping a flush is 0.8%. Ok now let's say you are playing any two random cards, and the flop comes three suited. What is the probability that a flush has been flopped against you? It must be higher that 0.8% right. Anybody know? What about the same question for a straight being flopped against you?

well ahab in a perfect world........we know 1: that 3 suited cards have flopped and you wondering if someone flopped a flush against you?
well 2: the odds that someone was dealt 2 suited cards is 3 to 1.
and 3: the odds of his suited pocket being the same as the board is 3x3x3x3 or 81 to 1.

peace

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