What Is Variance?

Often, when we hit a slump where nothing seems to be going our way, we are encouraged to resolve the situation as "variance".

Many of us know that variance is a go-to moniker for randomness, observed over specific periods of time... whereas many people equate "variance" and "luck", and they really aren't the same thing.

Alex Rousso does a nice job of explaining variance here: http://www.bluffeurope.com/PokerMagazine/What-Is-Variance-_263.aspx

I tried to work it out on my last 2 weeks worth of MTT's (could only find that many)

Played 15 of each 55c & $1.10 Tourneys, some turbo, some double stacked & some also 6 man.

$1.10 = 3.9
55c = 2.1

All I did & I hope it was right, was add the winnings together then divided it by the 15 tourneys entered.

I really have no idea what variance is in poker so i appreciate the link. I'll check it out.

Not sure why you would really need to calculate your "variance." If you play poker and you don't realize that you cannot to win every time, then calculating your variance isn't really going to be much help.

For me personally the variance is a commonly used term for attempted explanation-justification of something that seems illogical. And sometimes it is just so illogical. Examples, have them for yourself. So, so ... This is for me the term-a tool for a reasonable explanation. Less tilt, more experience for logical thinking. The luck/variance can have a major role in the game of Poker, but it's not everything, right? There is hardly disagree with this opinion.

very good explanation, all of the suffer at some point .. the point is to know how to handle this variance difficult .. but not impossible ..

What the article says is right in the way that people use the term without really knowing it's meaning. It's quite simple actually, variance is a statistics term used to measure the dispersion of a set of numbers, in relation to a particular number which would be the mean. It's interesting the relation that it's made on the term with the following aspects:

1. An increase in the size of the player pool

2. A decrease in the edge you have in a tournament

3. An increase in your general level of aggression, and tendency to put chips in the pot

Definitely helps to build a game strategy, specially to add terms to the variance.

This was of great help for me. Thank you so much for sharing this link. I have heard this many times but never looked into the real meaning of the term.

p.s. I will never use this as an excuse why I was in and lost!! lol

teepack said:

Not sure why you would really need to calculate your "variance." If you play poker and you don't realize that you cannot to win every time, then calculating your variance isn't really going to be much help.

Click to expand...

This is an over-simplification. If you know your variance, it can help you to be more aware of how likely it is that a downswing is or isn't solely due to it. The sooner you become aware that your downswing isn't the sole factor in a downswing, the sooner you can look for and fix the leaks that are also contributing.

variance is a catch 22. It gives losers the ability to blame their loss on something (other than the its rigged theory), but to be able to keep your cool and not be put on tilt after every donk rivers you. IMHO understand variance is the key to my game because I rely very highly on the odds of each situation, and when you rely on numbers to play the understanding of the variance of the turn/river is the only thing that stops you from breaking your computer or crying lol

Because of it's hard to say, you play good or bad. Variance "dries brains" even the best players. The most interesting and what should be the distance to know you winning player or not, but simply the variance