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  Poker - What are the odds?
 
  #1  
01-08-2005, 1:50 AM
Alon Ipser
Felony Poker Player
 
Location: Washington
Plays at: Stars
Posts: 1,306
What are the odds?

I just lost a monster pot at Paradise. I'm holding KK and K7J comes on the flop. 5 comes on the turn and then a J on the river. Betting has been heavy between 3 of us and is capped after river. The first guy turns over 77 for a fullhouse 7s full of Js. I have the fullhouse Ks full of Js. The last guy turns over JJ for 4 of a kind. Now everyone says these games aren't rigged but when was the last time you saw something like this in a live game. I realize that people have done studies on the odds of hitting certain hands but those numbers can be manipulated so that they can put big hand against big hand and still remain in the norm. What I am saying is the odds for hitting a big hand goes up when someone else is holding a big hand and the odds go down when no one slse has a big hand. In the end the odds average out. I am probably wrong but I am pissed off at the moment.
 

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  #2  
01-08-2005, 2:44 AM
Dorkus Malorkus
VOTE MCBAIN '08
 
Location: Birmingham, UK
Plays at: Stars
Likes: You
Posts: 8,125
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alon Ipser
I realize that people have done studies on the odds of hitting certain hands but those numbers can be manipulated so that they can put big hand against big hand and still remain in the norm. What I am saying is the odds for hitting a big hand goes up when someone else is holding a big hand and the odds go down when no one slse has a big hand.
This would still be detectable by a statistician who has a sample size larger than one single hand to base anything on. You lost a (admittedly freakish) hand, get over it and move on.
  #3  
01-08-2005, 5:10 AM
xdmanx007
CardsChat Elite
 
Location: Indiana
Plays at: Paradise
Posts: 1,854
Explanation is.... OH HELL NO not gonna stir that pot right now about odds anyway! Ummm Sorry about getting cornholded with no lubrication there... You are correct that exact hand would be very unlikely to happen. If you are going to continue to play online you need to adjust your thinking to 1 of 2 ideals; online NL poker is rigged for higher rake and you should adjust your game accordingly or 2 that with billions of hands being dealt online you will see any and every possible card combination at some point in your online career.
  #4  
01-08-2005, 5:32 AM
HoldemChamp
CardsChat Regular
 
Location: Texas
Plays at: Ultimate Bet
Likes: Holdem
Posts: 442
Not that uncommon. I have seen it more times than I would care to admit.

Sometimes it was me on the losing end with 2nd best of 3rd best hand. We can sit there and figure the odds and how unlikely that this kind of hand will happen. But, that won't prevent it from happening. I happens in spite of what the odds have to say.

Just like best hand losing to a suck out on the river. If you were to play 10,000's of hands will only begin to see how the odds bare out. Look for it in one tournament or even one short ring game session and you are unlikely to see anything.
  #5  
01-08-2005, 1:13 PM
robwhufc
Bloodsport? Nah, just fun
 
Location: Sittingbourne, UK
Posts: 5,518
You should have folded when second j flopped blah blah blah! Seen hands like this too - consparacists (i've got to look up correct spelling of this word) would refer to it as an "action hand".

I would tend to think of it like this - there are hundreds of people on this site playing 100's of hands each week. One of us is bound to see something dodgy from time to time, (my favourite is 3 QQ's in 6 hands, followed by 3 33's in next 4 hands - also 2 consecutive 7777's). Although I dont agree with conspirisists (no that's not right either!), is it just me or is this more prevalent on Paradise???!!!!...
 


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