Variance is a Good Thing

Originally Posted by quads

I really think you completely misunderstood my entire post. After personally having great success playing online for years and then of course having one terrible year is not the reason for my usual negative stance against gun-hoe online poker threads. Before I go any further I would like to add that if I decided to grind further with online poker, it would take me years to give back my winnings, based on my BR management along with my strategy, and of course not turning into a full blown idiot. In fact I could even double or triple my present BR if I decided to go for it playing online. With that being said I also would like to add, that most intelligent threads like this one are very much fact, and could be great tips for the internet poker player.

In many of my past threads and posts I expressed great concern why I felt online is becoming a much harder place to be successful. Never said you couldn’t be successful online, especially since I did pretty damn good for myself online, and expect to stay there. I also was fortunate to be playing online early in the poker boom which of course probably added to my success.

Basically what I found especially after the U.I.G.E.A. was passed in “2006”, forcing the congestion of all U.S. players to just a couple of reliable sites is when it started to change.
The majority to include myself obviously choosing Poker-Stars which instantly became and still is the world’s biggest online poker site. Of course all the good players enjoying maybe a free ride at other lesser sites had to come over instantly making it much stiffer in competition. And although many people want to blow off BOT users, and professional collusion teams, they are a big threat and are now all forced into a select few sites. Bot technology has grown to new highs as of today completely undetectable to poker servers, and professional collusion teams are at extreme sophistication. Then we got all kinds of software support programs giving instant percentages and odds, along with storing records of previous opponents past play, making a good players game even easier and the donks we pray for game better then it should be; giving them the chance to get into the union without paying their union dues sort of speak. This along with all the confirmed cheating, (absolute scandal, selling off seats to pros late in tournaments, multi-accounting, and who knows for sure what’s next) This all in my opinion created a variance in online poker that although could still be overcome in time, to realistically achieve substantial financial results is beginning to look bleak. And like I said above, Variance: A measure of the up and down swings your bankroll goes through. Variance is not necessarily a measure of how well you play. However, the higher your variance, the wider swings you'll see in your bankroll.

We could talk all you want about coin flips getting even sooner or later, but can average bankroll players hold on and wait when there were 1 million heads and only 300k tails. And how about when the player that gets all his money in the pot with the best hand and some donk hits his 1 outter on the river trashing his br. Yet, when it’s his turn for the percentage to strike back in his favor he can’t get 2 cents into the pot. Does that hand count the same as a coin flip. If that happens often enough an average bankroll can’t stay for the ride.

I by no means will ever trash online poker, and could even jump all-in any day. But for now I’m giving live a more serious try.

So, my personal experience I’m trying share with other online players is solely based on my personal experiences as a veteran online player. What I say is nothing more than an opinion based on my facts of flawless records and how I presently view online poker. People that read forums are obviously here for a reason. Reading about my past experiences and opinions doesn’t make what I say poker law. Yet, for some it may be very helpful.

P.S. I could go on much more.