Trusting Your Instincts

#1 20th February 2011, 3:13 AM

Is it always right to take those +EV situations even when you think you're a massive underdog?

Take today as an example. I'm playing a FR cash game and have KK, I raise UTG to 3x the Big Blind and get 3 bet, by a player I have around 500 hands on at these stakes who is a massive nit and has a 3Bet percentage of around 1%. Now, I've raised from Early position and know I have a tight image and villain has 3 bet, I do not put him/her on AK/JJ/AQs nor do I think she has QQ, statistically unlikely to have KK and even them I'm just throwing the money to the rake or she could have AA and I'm a 20% dog. Is a fold right here? I laid it down and will never know if I was right, but should you take the chance with pocket Kings here?

Another hand I played, there was a raise from UTG+1 and a call from middle position, I call the 3x raise from the cutoff with 55 and flop comes 56Q, lovely. The original raiser raises a tiny amount, middle p-osition folds and I re raise and the original raiser shoves. Now of course it could be AQ/KK/AA in which case I'm a dominant favourite, but the tiny flop bet followed by a shove made me think QQ for set over set. I called and villain has QQ.

There was another hand where I said out loud to myself what the villain had but called anyway because I felt I can't lay this hand down. I don't recall what it was but I was right again.

Is it wrong to call here, or should we always take a +EV situation. I'm not talking calling along with Middle pair because your opponent is some 97% VPIP crazy lag player who bets every street only to lose to his randomly flopped 2 pair with 83, I mean genuinely good hands, when your instincts simply tell you're losing, in a cash game, should you always take the odds and say well, I'm going to win here most of the time and just get it in?

#2 20th February 2011, 4:30 AM

As always, it depends on your read of the villain. In the first case, given your reasoning I think the lay down makes sense. In the second case, I also agree. You have bottom set. Obvioiusly the villain has something big to shove. I can't imagine its less than a bigger set.

#3 20th February 2011, 4:36 AM

I think you play 2nl? If not then you can just disregard this but I don't think i would ever fold KK at 2nl even if you think this guy is really tight i still think its +EV to call here. As for the set again i don't think i would fold you said it yourself AQ/KK/AA and maybe even KQ you see someone at 2nl stacking off with so you have to call. Overall if you think its +EV than call

#4 20th February 2011, 5:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JohnBoyWWFC

Is it always right to take those +EV situations even when you think you're a massive underdog?

Take today as an example. I'm playing a FR cash game and have KK, I raise UTG to 3x the Big Blind and get 3 bet, by a player I have around 500 hands on at these stakes who is a massive nit and has a 3Bet percentage of around 1%. Now, I've raised from Early position and know I have a tight image and villain has 3 bet, I do not put him/her on AK/JJ/AQs nor do I think she has QQ, statistically unlikely to have KK and even them I'm just throwing the money to the rake or she could have AA and I'm a 20% dog. Is a fold right here? I laid it down and will never know if I was right, but should you take the chance with pocket Kings here?

Another hand I played, there was a raise from UTG+1 and a call from middle position, I call the 3x raise from the cutoff with 55 and flop comes 56Q, lovely. The original raiser raises a tiny amount, middle p-osition folds and I re raise and the original raiser shoves. Now of course it could be AQ/KK/AA in which case I'm a dominant favourite, but the tiny flop bet followed by a shove made me think QQ for set over set. I called and villain has QQ.

There was another hand where I said out loud to myself what the villain had but called anyway because I felt I can't lay this hand down. I don't recall what it was but I was right again.

Is it wrong to call here, or should we always take a +EV situation. I'm not talking calling along with Middle pair because your opponent is some 97% VPIP crazy lag player who bets every street only to lose to his randomly flopped 2 pair with 83, I mean genuinely good hands, when your instincts simply tell you're losing, in a cash game, should you always take the odds and say well, I'm going to win here most of the time and just get it in?

lemme guess he had 4 7 off suit

#5 20th February 2011, 7:00 AM

Lol, funny you should say that, I lost KK to 47o earlier today! Good times. For the record, yes I have been playing 2NL, started this month, just today made it up to the BR for 5NL so will be playing that tomorrow. But as someone who is new to cash and hoping to move up, I was looking at the idea across a number of stakes. I don't see what the difference is from somone who only 3 bets a tiny percentage of hands across any stakes. People say oh it's only 2NL, ship it, but I'd be much more comfortable shipping QQ v one player against another.

#6 20th February 2011, 10:12 AM

As said by alaskabill and mikejm, I think you made a good laydown of your kings but should have called/put villain on a wider range in the second hand (regardless of the actual result).

Most important thing to extract from your post though is not the actual result of two specific hands; it is to recognize, sustain and apply your apparently good handreading skills. Of course math and odds apply to playing a certain hand against a certain villain, but hand reading also draws on so many subtle fragments of experience with that particular villain, table dynamics, timing tells, many small pieces of data that your mind processes on a subconscious level without you 'knowing' you're doing it. That's what constitutes the thing you call 'instinct' (see, imo 'instinct' is real and based on real data, not just some magic unexplainable mindreading mumbo jumbo) and if, as you say, your 'instinct' (your mind's ability to subconsciously collect, correlate and apply relevant data) consistently makes the right 'guesses' of your oppinent's hands, you should certainly not ignore that with arguments like 'objective odds calculations say I should call his shove even though i KNOW I'm beat'. That's just like saying 'I will only use some, not all, of the available information to make my decision in this situation' (i.e. you will only use the information that you are consciously aware of, and disregard your subconscious mind's contribution).
So, congratulations on your good hand reading skills, keep honing your instincts, trust them and use them

#7 26th February 2011, 1:43 PM

if your layin down kk in cash game pre flop 2 a 3bet even 2 a tight player at the table ...YOUR PLAYIN 2 TIGHT AND WAY 2 PARANOID,, its a cash game get some kahunas even if your up against aa u should see a flop,,,and lead out see were u are,,in a cash game u will get 3bet with all kinds ov hands if table thinks u are a tight asss player

#8 26th February 2011, 5:37 PM

At least in your second scenario, it would have been a masterful fold. But I don't see how you can get away from your set with that flop. There's exactly two combinations of hole cards that has you beat (QQ, 66); any other combination and you have him/her dominated.

The fact that you had it figured out your opponent had you set-over-set is a testament to your reading skills. But I'd certainly have difficulty getting away from that hand post-flop.

#9 26th February 2011, 5:56 PM

honestly john, at 2-10nl, 99% of players aren't paying enough attention to notice ideas such as "table image/dynamics", there playing their cards only...meaning they are playing at a "level 1" state of mind

preflop, never lay down kings at these stakes, ever...I know it may seem like he's the biggest nit w/a 1% 3 bet, but still at 2-10 nl, I would still never lay it down

#10 27th February 2011, 5:50 PM

Fair play. I would rarely do it, but I reckon I was right on this occasion.

Another example I saw on TV was 2 guys were heads up in the final of a World Open, it was Sam Trickett and Yevgeniy Timoshenko and Timoshenko got check raised all in on the river with Top pair and a weak kicker. Now, in this spot, he's clearly beat, Trickett knows he can't push him off anything because he's pot committed, but why call for all your chips because the odds say you should when you're clearly behind. It was a terrible bet on the river anyway, but I don't see why he calls almost saying, fine you got me, well played. It's almost like he "can't fold" and this seems to be a common saying in poker, I had to call, I couldn't fold there, even when people are sure they are beat.

Just some thoughts.

#11 27th February 2011, 9:41 PM

because sometimes people will have bluffs when you figure they can't possibly have bluffs.

#12 27th February 2011, 10:12 PM

Gut feeling, instinct, intuition... call it whatever you like, it's all based on facts. Hand reading is as much logic as it's intuition.

And you have to combine stats and intuition to be able to make the correct calls most of the times. You can't, as someone said before me, simply ignore facts. You have to take the whole picture into account. If the "gut" tells you something isn't right with your reasoning, you probably know it on an intuitive level, but just can't quite surround it with sound logic. This is where, IMO, the best plays come into action. Most of the time it will be 3rd or 4th level thinking, though. So no worries for now

#13 27th February 2011, 11:12 PM

never fold pocket kings preflop ever in the micros...evar

#14 5th March 2011, 6:37 AM

While I agree with what has been said so far, as to never laying down Kings preflop you can get a sense from some players and just know you are beat.

The hard part is to listen to yourself, even though the odds, hand ranges, pot odds say to call. After playing hundreds of thousands of hands you will get a sense of when you are beat.

#15 5th March 2011, 11:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by xdeuceswild81xx

never fold pocket kings preflop ever in the micros...evar

This, or sets

#16 5th March 2011, 11:58 PM

Yeah, i wholly disagree on that point, but I guess it's an example of my point, people say get em in, you'll be ahead more often than not, but I could have saved like 6BIs this week by folding KK pre cos they ran into AA and not jus all those times when they did, but those times when I felt I was beat.

#17 5th March 2011, 11:59 PM

And, yeah I folded KK on the river today when there was a King on the board. Bad fold Ben?

#18 6th March 2011, 12:03 AM

Stop outleveling yourself, dont fold sets or KK pre-flop.

#19 6th March 2011, 1:02 AM

Seriously? The guy was calling on a 2 spade flop and the river brought 4 to a straight and the 3rd spade? I don't know what outleveling means but I don't think you can make these blanket statements. Newbies gonna come here, read that go to micros and get owned if they just call call call with bottom set on a 4 to a flush board or times when it's just bad to play those hands.

#20 6th March 2011, 1:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tenbob

Stop outleveling yourself, dont fold sets or KK pre-flop.

I agree!!! You are selling yourself way to short. KK is not a hand to fold pre-flop. In some cases I have seen this done in a PL game, but NL, not a chance I would fold before a flop. But hey that's just me.

GL

#21 6th March 2011, 1:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JohnBoyWWFC

Is it always right to take those +EV situations when you're in the micros and people suck horribly?

fyp and yes

#22 6th March 2011, 2:16 AM

You didn't really fix my post since I'm talking poker in general not just 'the micros' as everyone seems to be hung up on. It's like if someone is running 7/6/1 Vpip/Pfr/3bet they have the same ranges whether it's 2NL or 200NL.

#23 6th March 2011, 2:21 AM

yes i did. The majority of nits are willing to get it in QQ+,AKs+,AKo in which we're ahead of that range 57% to 42%

#24 6th March 2011, 2:25 AM

So if I know for a fact that this player isn't stackin off with QQ, since I've seen him flat a 3 bet with QQ and take a flop a number of times, then what?

#25 6th March 2011, 2:31 AM

then your flipping 49% 51%. And for the MOST part you can't entirely exclude QQ from there range so the times that they do show up with QQ makes up for it. It's just not profitable to fold KK pre and I know you have your "instincts" but i just advise not too

#26 6th March 2011, 2:48 AM

So you think he flats QQ but shoves AQ? I'd guess he'd be flatting or folding to my 4-bet so were pretty much facing KK+. I don't think our equity is so good then.

#27 6th March 2011, 2:50 AM

dude wtf? when did i say he flats QQ? shoves AQ?

#28 6th March 2011, 3:07 AM

Sorry, I meant shoves AK. You said nits are willing to stack off with QQ+ AKs+ and AKo. I said I know this guy flats QQ so were not flipping 51 to 49% because if we can take QQ out of his stacking off range we can take AK out too leaving us with AA and KK.

Clearly I'm flogging a dead horse here. Keep getting KK in no matter what and keep getting sets in on 4 to a flush boards or straight boards and never take anything else into account cos at da micros dey stack off with 47o.

#29 6th March 2011, 4:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JohnBoyWWFC

You didn't really fix my post since I'm talking poker in general not just 'the micros' as everyone seems to be hung up on. It's like if someone is running 7/6/1 Vpip/Pfr/3bet they have the same ranges whether it's 2NL or 200NL.

a. this isnt true ^^^^....Lots of players at 2nl arent paying enough attention to even understand there playing tight. They will get it in for stacks w/ Axs, low pocket pairs, etc... Even running 7/6 isn't a perfect example unless you have atleast 1k hands or so on a player, bc certain sessions you just won't pick up hands

b. Don't play the stats at 2nl as much as you would at 200nl...theres a reason the blinds are .01/.02 not 1/2$, its bc the play is different. To assume that someone w/the same stats at different levels is playing the same hands is flawed. (See C)

c. Player A at 200nl running 13/9/4 (i know this isnt realistic, but roll w/it) might be playing all pocket pairs and A10s +....3 bet JJ+. At 2nl, a 13/9/4 is not playing the same hands, bc its 2nl and he doesnt understand what being a TAG means....hell he probably doesnt even know what PTR3 is. So at 2nl his 13/9 may look more like All Ax's, 88+ and 3bet A10+, QQ+

though the ranges are somewhat similar, there's stilll a difference

4. Never fold KK preflop ever, ever , ever , ever .....if you have ptr3, filter your KK when facing a 3bet and I guarantee over a large enough sample size, that your profitable

Hope this helps johnny

#30 6th March 2011, 5:37 AM

If you honestly put someone on a range of KK+ and you have KK then it's an easy fold.

#31 6th March 2011, 5:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by baudib1

If you honestly put someone on a range of KK+ and you have KK then it's an easy fold.

ya but even FX himself doesn't represent that range...and if theres actually a situation that can be assigned with KK+ than it doesnt mean that its profitable to just throw KK away for all the other times when villian isn't representing that range

#32 6th March 2011, 6:01 AM

yah it all depends on the table, the dynamics and history and reads.

I'm most aggro online 6-max games, I cannot imagine folding any of JJ+/AK in a BTN vs. blinds situation, for instance.

In a lot of live games it is very easy to put someone on exactly Aces and fold Kings.

#33 6th March 2011, 9:29 AM

In general if you get a strong gut feeling then good to listen to that, but, you said you read the hud, which is technically not your gut. And if the person was feeling pushed around they might have uncharacteristically 3 bet.

Also have you analyzed hands where you went with your gut and seen the % of times you were right? You could factor that % in your calculations in the future.

#34 6th March 2011, 11:37 AM

Maybe now you can listen to what i said since everyone else has backed it up lol

#35 13th March 2011, 8:33 AM

Last week I got KK in a very similiar situation,and I folded them.But another nut did call,the villian had 44,the nut caller had AQ,and I folded the winner.
So,the next time,I think I will shove them KKs and close my eyes,lol.

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