trouble moving up to $33+3.

For the last month or so I've been playing the $20+2 and turbo $22+2 SNGs on full tilt and doing so with great success (43% ITM, 25% ROI over 130 SNGs).

As I'm more than properly rolled for it after this run, I'm trying to move up to the $30+3 and turbo $33+3 level, but I have the feeling I'm cursed when I play them. I'm 9% ITM and -78% ROI over the 11 SNGs. And the worst part is that I don't feel that the level of play is any better. I just can't win a coin flip, even when I'm like 80% favorite.

The difference in play is negligible at best.

You'll hear the same from everyone else but you could play 20 SnGs perfectly and not cash in a single one. Stick to your game and it'll come around but don't even start to draw any conclusions until you get to at least 100 and preferably 2 or 3

The graphs for the two levels.

Attached Images

	20.jpg (36.2 KB, 3 views)
	30.jpg (27.0 KB, 3 views)

In theory I know that. I've had a losing streak of 13 and a cashing streak of 6 at the $20 level. And those are a lot worse when playing turbos than when playing regulars.

It just really hurts to start a new level by a losing streak... And that's really bad for self confidence.

Weird. Maybe this "curse" is in your head and affecting your game?

I usually play $5 SNGs, and one time I beat my best friend's uncle in a home game, and he raised the stakes that if anyone won AND took him out, he'd roll them in a $100 SNG on Stars. Well, I destroyed the game with the added incentive and played in the SNG and finished 2nd.

The point? I can honestly say the play was only slightly better in the 100 sng than it is at the 5 level. Of course, i only have ONE single sample size, but i can't imagine there would be any sort of difference between the play of the 20 to $30 SNG players.

Look at from about 90 to 103 on the first graph. Seems to be about where you're at in the second graph. Of course it's always possible your game has been affected, but if you truly think you're playing your game and just getting unlucky, you can see how it's completely possible that you're playing perfectly and just not getting the cards you need. One of the reasons I dislike tourneys so much.

heh

sample size.JPG

and

variance formula.gif

I play $45+5 and $60+5 3 or 4 daily at my card room Hard Rock Tampa depending which game fills up first and its pretty much the same caliber of players either way. I couldn't imagine 10 bucks being a difference online. If it were me and my results were so drastic between the 2 I'd just 2 table the 20's and forget the 30+3's. Could be Karma.

peace

Just to repeat whats been said already, the difference in play when you move up 1 level is minute. Just continue to play within your bankroll and you'll be fine. Clearly with a ROI like you have it's not a skill issue, you are just having a downswing. My only suggestion is to wait until you don't feel cursed before you try to move up again. Sometimes those feelings end up being self fulfilling.

I don't know what I could say that would help you because you seem to do ok in the $20's

Perhaps you can build the bankroll a bit longer in the 20's before you move up. When you move up if you lose the first one in the 30's, perhaps you can just move back down into the 20's right away to build back up. Keep doing it until you win in the 30's.

I have found that I am much more successful at a new level of SNG play when I start each session with a win at the previous level.

In the example of moving from $22 to $33, I would begin each session with a $22 SNG, and wouldn't move up to $33 until I win 1st place at the $22 level.

This accomplishes a couple of things. It serves as a warm-up and ensures I am playing my "A game". I also effectively have a freeroll into the $33 SNG (since I just took a $68 profit) which helps to remove any anxiety about moving up to the next level.

If I finish out of the money in the $33, I will usually drop back down to $22 and move up again when I win 1st place. By doing this, my bankroll keeps increasing, which allows me to keep taking shots at the next level while removing the concerns that lead to scared play.

I want to have $660 (20 buy-ins at $33) to move up using this method, and will continue to play this way until I have $990. Once I have 30 buy-ins, I'll only play $33 SNGs unless I have a really bad slide that takes me back down to 20 buy-ins.

Not a bad idea. I tend to do the opposite. Start with a $33 SNG, lose it to an ugly bad beat, then move down to the $22s to recover the initial loss. Maybe I should start by winning the $22s instead.

My roll is like 40 $33 buy ins now, so technically I could just swallow the $33 losses and keep playing them, but I don't feel confident enough to do that.

It just sounds like you're in a funk - your sample size is tiny. I'd also suggest sticking to the $22s for bankroll management purposes. Variance in STTs is huge and I really think you should be playing with a smaller % of your roll.

I mentioned this in some HA threads of yours, but I'd suggest picking up an ICM calculator to review your hands. The widely accepted 'best' one is sng wizard and it's about $100. You're missing out on a huge edge if you don't use one. STTs, especially turbos, can basically be beaten purely on mathematics and ICM calculators help tremendously in that area by basically telling you exactly what range to play in what situations depending on the chip stack sizes and the calling/pushing ranges of your opponents.

You obviously cant take the small variance. So I recommend you to go down in stakes right now.....

I always feel cursed when playing sit and goes. Thats why I almost never play them lol

Dont want to hijack the thread, but how long have they had $45+5 SNGs at the Hard Rock, every time I've been they've only had like $65+5(?) SNGs. I know they got rid of the electronic table which had the $45 SNGs.

So I did run a dozen of SNG histories through SnGWiz. Great tool indeed, although it's not "purely mathematics" as you say as it depends on the calling ranges you assign to the villains.

From what I've seen, it looks like i'm mostly taking the right decisions in push-fold mode, but apparently I'm slightly too tight in the SB and slightly too loose on the button. I'll try to correct that.

An update on my results: I'm still running hot at 42% ITM and 25% ROI over 150 SNGs at $20+2 and $22+2 , and I still suck at the $30+3 and $33+3 with 10% ITM and -76% ROI over 20 SNGs.

I think I'll stop trying for the 30s until the end of the month and focus on 4 tabling the 20s for a while. Probably wait until I have a bankroll of more than $1500 before I try to move up again.

sorry I meant the silks card room for sngs hard rock for the 45+5 rebuys.

peace